Pre-tourney Rankings
Mountain West
2017-18


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
35 Nevada 83.1%   8   27 - 7 15 - 3 27 - 7 15 - 3 +11.4      +5.7 35 +5.7 35 72.3 92 +11.6 37 +12.9 1
52 San Diego St. 100.0%   11   21 - 10 11 - 7 21 - 10 11 - 7 +9.7      +4.9 52 +4.9 52 70.0 153 +7.9 68 +5.7 5
61 Boise St. 6.4%   22 - 8 13 - 5 22 - 8 13 - 5 +8.6      +4.3 61 +4.3 61 70.1 152 +8.9 62 +9.6 2
82 Fresno St. 0.0%   19 - 11 11 - 7 19 - 11 11 - 7 +6.7      +3.3 82 +3.3 82 66.2 246 +5.0 97 +6.0 4
105 New Mexico 0.0%   18 - 15 12 - 6 18 - 15 12 - 6 +4.6      +2.3 105 +2.3 105 74.9 51 +3.7 110 +7.0 3
112 UNLV 0.0%   20 - 13 8 - 10 20 - 13 8 - 10 +4.1      +2.1 112 +2.1 112 78.8 18 +4.7 103 +2.0 7
119 Wyoming 0.0%   19 - 13 10 - 8 19 - 13 10 - 8 +3.3      +1.6 119 +1.6 119 80.3 13 +5.6 91 +5.4 6
138 Utah St. 0.0%   16 - 17 8 - 10 16 - 17 8 - 10 +1.5      +0.8 138 +0.8 138 66.7 234 +1.9 140 +2.0 8
223 Air Force 0.0%   10 - 19 6 - 12 10 - 19 6 - 12 -3.6      -1.8 223 -1.8 223 64.3 299 -3.1 215 -1.0 9
225 Colorado St. 0.0%   10 - 21 4 - 14 10 - 21 4 - 14 -3.8      -1.9 225 -1.9 225 72.2 93 -2.5 205 -4.5 10
301 San Jose St. 0.0%   3 - 26 1 - 17 3 - 26 1 - 17 -8.3      -4.2 301 -4.2 301 67.0 231 -10.9 325 -13.6 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Nevada 1.0 100.0
San Diego St. 4.0 100.0
Boise St. 2.0 100.0
Fresno St. 4.0 100.0
New Mexico 3.0 100.0
UNLV 7.0 100.0
Wyoming 6.0 100.0
Utah St. 7.0 100.0
Air Force 9.0 100.0
Colorado St. 10.0 100.0
San Jose St. 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Nevada 15 - 3 100.0
San Diego St. 11 - 7 100.0
Boise St. 13 - 5 100.0
Fresno St. 11 - 7 100.0
New Mexico 12 - 6 100.0
UNLV 8 - 10 100.0
Wyoming 10 - 8 100.0
Utah St. 8 - 10 100.0
Air Force 6 - 12 100.0
Colorado St. 4 - 14 100.0
San Jose St. 1 - 17 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Nevada 100.0% 100.0
San Diego St.
Boise St.
Fresno St.
New Mexico
UNLV
Wyoming
Utah St.
Air Force
Colorado St.
San Jose St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Nevada 83.1% 0.0% 83.1% 8   0.0 0.5 7.0 19.0 20.8 18.9 13.5 3.4 16.9 83.1%
San Diego St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 11   0.3 38.3 59.9 1.5
Boise St. 6.4% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0 5.1 1.3 0.0 93.6 6.4%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
New Mexico 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UNLV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Utah St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Colorado St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Nevada 83.1% 3.2% 81.7% 42.5% 12.2% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0%
San Diego St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 33.9% 11.0% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Boise St. 6.4% 6.3% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.9 15.6 79.3 5.1
1st Round 100.0% 1.8 17.8 80.0 2.2
2nd Round 62.4% 0.8 37.6 47.6 14.6 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 22.1% 0.2 77.9 20.7 1.4
Elite Eight 7.6% 0.1 92.4 7.5 0.1
Final Four 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3 0.0
Final Game 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1