Pre-tourney Rankings
Cal Poly
Big West
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-11.9#332
Expected Predictive Rating-13.3#333
Pace65.6#269
Improvement-1.4#250

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#291
First Shot-3.2#275
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#277
Layup/Dunks-0.2#183
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#204
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#139
Freethrows-3.6#340
Improvement+2.3#79

Defense
Total Defense-7.3#338
First Shot-6.0#327
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#300
Layups/Dunks-0.8#206
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#332
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#161
Freethrows-2.8#332
Improvement-3.7#321
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Away) - 21.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.00.0 - 0.0
Quad 1b0.0 - 1.00.0 - 1.0
Quad 20.0 - 3.00.0 - 4.0
Quad 30.0 - 8.00.0 - 12.0
Quad 44.2 - 11.84.2 - 23.8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2018 98   @ Arizona L 61-82 4%     0 - 1 -13.1 -9.8 -2.3
  Nov 16, 2018 272   @ Sacramento St. L 65-73 21%    
  Nov 19, 2018 205   @ Washington St. L 70-84 13%     0 - 2 -13.8 -5.6 -8.3
  Nov 21, 2018 138   Texas St. L 42-54 10%     0 - 3 -9.8 -19.3 +7.4
  Nov 23, 2018 319   @ Portland L 67-72 34%     0 - 4 -12.7 -6.7 -6.2
  Nov 24, 2018 335   South Carolina Upstate W 75-74 OT 56%     1 - 4 -12.6 -7.5 -5.2
  Dec 01, 2018 72   @ Fresno St. L 67-76 3%     1 - 5 +0.8 +6.3 -6.5
  Dec 08, 2018 310   Bethune-Cookman W 80-78 OT 50%     2 - 5 -10.0 -1.1 -9.0
  Dec 15, 2018 231   @ California L 66-67 16%     2 - 6 -2.2 -2.1 -0.2
  Dec 18, 2018 222   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 61-74 15%     2 - 7 -13.7 -10.1 -4.2
  Dec 21, 2018 150   Texas Arlington L 70-75 OT 17%     2 - 8 -6.7 -9.1 +2.9
  Dec 29, 2018 250   @ Siena L 54-75 19%     2 - 9 -23.6 -13.4 -12.8
  Jan 09, 2019 170   @ UC Santa Barbara L 56-65 10%     2 - 10 0 - 1 -6.9 -9.8 +1.9
  Jan 12, 2019 252   Cal St. Northridge L 74-78 OT 36%     2 - 11 0 - 2 -12.1 -12.3 +0.5
  Jan 19, 2019 235   @ UC Davis L 63-75 16%     2 - 12 0 - 3 -13.6 -5.6 -8.4
  Jan 23, 2019 312   UC Riverside L 51-74 50%     2 - 13 0 - 4 -35.0 -22.8 -14.9
  Jan 26, 2019 192   Cal St. Fullerton L 63-80 25%     2 - 14 0 - 5 -21.8 -2.8 -20.9
  Jan 31, 2019 312   @ UC Riverside W 71-45 30%     3 - 14 1 - 5 +19.6 +15.4 +12.0
  Feb 02, 2019 252   @ Cal St. Northridge L 65-83 19%     3 - 15 1 - 6 -20.6 -6.5 -15.6
  Feb 07, 2019 235   UC Davis L 53-63 32%     3 - 16 1 - 7 -17.1 -15.7 -2.4
  Feb 09, 2019 217   Long Beach St. L 68-76 OT 28%     3 - 17 1 - 8 -13.8 -13.1 -0.1
  Feb 14, 2019 185   @ Hawaii L 54-75 11%     3 - 18 1 - 9 -19.7 -13.2 -8.6
  Feb 21, 2019 80   @ UC Irvine L 47-74 4%     3 - 19 1 - 10 -18.0 -15.6 -4.8
  Feb 23, 2019 185   Hawaii W 88-80 23%     4 - 19 2 - 10 +3.7 +17.4 -13.2
  Feb 28, 2019 192   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 75-86 12%     4 - 20 2 - 11 -10.2 +1.4 -11.1
  Mar 02, 2019 217   @ Long Beach St. L 85-94 14%     4 - 21 2 - 12 -9.3 +0.7 -8.8
  Mar 07, 2019 80   UC Irvine L 72-110 8%     4 - 22 2 - 13 -34.6 +2.2 -36.6
  Mar 09, 2019 170   UC Santa Barbara L 82-92 21%     4 - 23 2 - 14 -13.4 -0.1 -12.4
Projected Record 4.2 - 23.8 2.0 - 14.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 100.0 100.0 9th
Total 100.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14 100.0% 100.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 21.2%
Lose Out 78.8%