Pre-tourney Rankings
Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.1#300
Expected Predictive Rating-8.7#303
Pace70.7#127
Improvement+1.2#128

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#251
First Shot-1.1#211
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#287
Layup/Dunks-2.5#265
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#237
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#93
Freethrows+0.2#170
Improvement-0.6#210

Defense
Total Defense-5.5#312
First Shot-6.1#328
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#114
Layups/Dunks-4.2#329
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#88
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#323
Freethrows+1.1#102
Improvement+1.8#88
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round0.0% n/a n/a
Second Round0.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.0% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.00.0 - 0.0
Quad 1b0.0 - 1.00.0 - 1.0
Quad 20.0 - 2.00.0 - 3.0
Quad 32.0 - 6.02.0 - 9.0
Quad 48.0 - 12.010.0 - 21.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 264   Jacksonville W 97-82 53%     1 - 0 +6.2 +10.1 -5.6
  Nov 12, 2018 226   @ South Dakota L 74-90 24%     1 - 1 -16.8 -2.9 -13.1
  Nov 14, 2018 162   @ Nebraska Omaha W 76-66 16%     2 - 1 +12.6 -4.4 +16.4
  Nov 18, 2018 185   @ Hawaii L 68-85 19%     2 - 2 -15.7 -4.9 -10.8
  Nov 29, 2018 235   @ UC Davis L 57-73 26%     2 - 3 -17.6 -13.0 -4.8
  Dec 01, 2018 180   @ Santa Clara L 74-81 18%     2 - 4 -5.3 +2.5 -7.8
  Dec 08, 2018 101   Utah Valley L 78-98 17%     2 - 5 -18.0 +4.7 -22.5
  Dec 15, 2018 342   @ San Jose St. L 74-79 65%     2 - 6 -17.1 -8.3 -8.5
  Dec 19, 2018 81   @ San Francisco L 60-76 7%     2 - 7 -7.2 -6.3 -2.0
  Dec 21, 2018 99   @ Utah L 62-76 8%     2 - 8 -6.4 -6.2 -1.5
  Dec 29, 2018 130   Montana L 73-86 22%     2 - 9 0 - 1 -13.0 -2.5 -10.2
  Dec 31, 2018 241   Montana St. W 74-68 47%     3 - 9 1 - 1 -1.5 -7.6 +6.1
  Jan 03, 2019 212   @ Weber St. L 52-77 22%     3 - 10 1 - 2 -25.0 -23.7 +0.2
  Jan 05, 2019 324   @ Idaho St. W 81-69 50%     4 - 10 2 - 2 +3.8 +6.3 -1.6
  Jan 12, 2019 280   @ Southern Utah L 82-84 34%     4 - 11 2 - 3 -6.0 +9.2 -15.2
  Jan 17, 2019 272   Sacramento St. L 64-66 54%     4 - 12 2 - 4 -11.2 -4.5 -6.9
  Jan 19, 2019 275   Portland St. W 82-75 55%     5 - 12 3 - 4 -2.4 -6.1 +3.0
  Jan 26, 2019 194   Northern Colorado L 48-63 37%     5 - 13 3 - 5 -19.8 -18.1 -4.3
  Jan 28, 2019 280   Southern Utah W 80-77 OT 56%     6 - 13 4 - 5 -6.5 -5.3 -1.6
  Feb 02, 2019 345   @ Idaho W 86-73 67%     7 - 13 5 - 5 +0.5 +6.0 -5.4
  Feb 04, 2019 227   @ Eastern Washington L 64-82 24%     7 - 14 5 - 6 -18.9 -10.7 -7.9
  Feb 07, 2019 324   Idaho St. L 79-81 71%     7 - 15 5 - 7 -15.8 +3.3 -19.3
  Feb 09, 2019 212   Weber St. L 71-86 40%     7 - 16 5 - 8 -20.5 -8.4 -11.4
  Feb 14, 2019 275   @ Portland St. L 94-103 34%     7 - 17 5 - 9 -12.9 +5.1 -16.8
  Feb 16, 2019 272   @ Sacramento St. W 78-66 33%     8 - 17 6 - 9 +8.4 +10.4 -1.2
  Feb 21, 2019 345   Idaho W 75-54 83%     9 - 17 7 - 9 +2.9 -1.5 +6.4
  Feb 23, 2019 227   Eastern Washington L 73-86 44%     9 - 18 7 - 10 -19.5 -8.0 -10.6
  Mar 02, 2019 241   @ Montana St. L 73-84 28%     9 - 19 7 - 11 -12.9 -12.2 +0.2
  Mar 04, 2019 130   @ Montana L 64-66 11%     9 - 20 7 - 12 +3.5 -0.4 +3.7
  Mar 09, 2019 194   @ Northern Colorado W 89-78 OT 20%     10 - 20 8 - 12 +11.7 +9.2 +1.5
  Mar 13, 2019 272   Sacramento St. L 60-72 43%     10 - 21 -18.4 -10.4 -8.7
Projected Record 10.0 - 21.0 8.0 - 12.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 100.0 100.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 100.0% 100.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%