Pre-tourney Rankings
St. Mary's
West Coast
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.4#35
Expected Predictive Rating+8.5#59
Pace60.0#347
Improvement+2.0#107

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#28
First Shot+6.7#23
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#185
Layup/Dunks+5.5#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#211
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#118
Freethrows+0.3#160
Improvement-2.5#288

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#56
First Shot+2.7#88
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#15
Layups/Dunks-1.4#239
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#318
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#16
Freethrows+1.6#57
Improvement+4.4#15
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 10.5 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round41.2% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen11.5% n/a n/a
Elite Eight3.2% n/a n/a
Final Four0.8% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.2% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2.0 - 4.02.0 - 4.0
Quad 1b0.0 - 2.02.0 - 6.0
Quad 23.0 - 3.05.0 - 9.0
Quad 38.0 - 2.013.0 - 11.0
Quad 49.0 - 0.022.0 - 11.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 331   McNeese St. W 87-65 98%     1 - 0 +7.4 +13.3 -4.0
  Nov 11, 2018 101   Utah Valley W 92-63 81%     2 - 0 +31.0 +20.6 +10.9
  Nov 14, 2018 53   @ New Mexico St. W 73-58 49%     3 - 0 +26.8 +14.0 +14.6
  Nov 19, 2018 37   Utah St. L 63-80 51%     3 - 1 -5.9 -6.6 +1.2
  Nov 21, 2018 20   Mississippi St. L 57-61 37%     3 - 2 +10.9 +0.0 +10.2
  Nov 24, 2018 127   Harvard L 68-74 85%     3 - 3 -5.8 -1.6 -4.4
  Nov 28, 2018 80   UC Irvine L 75-80 78%     3 - 4 -1.6 +10.1 -12.0
  Dec 01, 2018 231   California W 84-71 94%     4 - 4 +6.2 +15.3 -7.8
  Dec 04, 2018 310   Bethune-Cookman W 93-61 97%     5 - 4 +20.0 +19.7 +1.1
  Dec 07, 2018 169   New Mexico W 85-60 87%     6 - 4 +24.4 +9.6 +14.3
  Dec 10, 2018 192   Cal St. Fullerton W 81-66 93%     7 - 4 +10.2 +20.9 -8.3
  Dec 15, 2018 18   LSU L 74-78 36%     7 - 5 +11.1 +2.8 +8.4
  Dec 19, 2018 146   Bucknell W 85-56 88%     8 - 5 +27.7 +17.3 +12.5
  Dec 22, 2018 117   @ Western Kentucky L 68-71 68%     8 - 6 +3.6 +1.3 +2.2
  Dec 29, 2018 342   San Jose St. W 75-45 99%     9 - 6 +12.4 -1.1 +15.3
  Jan 03, 2019 81   @ San Francisco L 72-76 60%     9 - 7 0 - 1 +4.8 +1.9 +2.9
  Jan 05, 2019 95   BYU W 88-66 80%     10 - 7 1 - 1 +24.5 +13.5 +10.9
  Jan 12, 2019 137   @ Loyola Marymount W 71-60 73%     11 - 7 2 - 1 +16.0 +15.4 +2.7
  Jan 17, 2019 180   Santa Clara W 75-55 92%     12 - 7 3 - 1 +16.1 +6.2 +11.2
  Jan 19, 2019 96   San Diego W 76-59 80%     13 - 7 4 - 1 +19.4 +9.1 +11.1
  Jan 24, 2019 95   @ BYU L 66-71 63%     13 - 8 4 - 2 +3.1 +4.3 -1.9
  Jan 26, 2019 154   @ Pepperdine L 77-84 OT 77%     13 - 9 4 - 3 -3.4 +3.6 -6.8
  Feb 02, 2019 81   San Francisco W 86-80 78%     14 - 9 5 - 3 +9.2 +18.4 -8.8
  Feb 07, 2019 198   Pacific W 78-66 93%     15 - 9 6 - 3 +6.9 +19.9 -10.7
  Feb 09, 2019 1   @ Gonzaga L 46-94 9%     15 - 10 6 - 4 -21.5 -13.0 -12.0
  Feb 14, 2019 180   @ Santa Clara W 66-55 82%     16 - 10 7 - 4 +12.7 +0.9 +12.7
  Feb 16, 2019 154   Pepperdine W 72-65 89%     17 - 10 8 - 4 +5.1 +7.4 -1.3
  Feb 21, 2019 198   @ Pacific W 58-32 85%     18 - 10 9 - 4 +26.4 +0.9 +31.7
  Feb 23, 2019 96   @ San Diego W 66-46 63%     19 - 10 10 - 4 +28.0 +6.5 +23.9
  Feb 28, 2019 319   Portland W 65-48 98%     20 - 10 11 - 4 +3.7 +3.0 +4.9
  Mar 02, 2019 1   Gonzaga L 55-69 18%     20 - 11 11 - 5 +6.9 -3.5 +8.7
  Mar 11, 2019 96   San Diego W 69-62 72%     21 - 11 +12.2 +8.6 +4.5
  Mar 12, 2019 1   Gonzaga W 60-47 13%     22 - 11 +36.7 +5.8 +33.0
Projected Record 22.0 - 11.0 11.0 - 5.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 10.5 0.1 3.5 9.1 30.3 43.6 13.3 0.0
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 10.5 0.1 3.5 9.1 30.3 43.6 13.3 0.0