Preseason Rankings
Big Sky
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
73 Montana 55.5%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 16 - 4 +7.1      +4.1 72 +3.1 79 69.0 183 0.0 1 0.0 1
147 Weber St. 14.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 13 - 7 +1.1      +0.9 136 +0.2 162 68.2 201 0.0 1 0.0 1
172 Northern Colorado 9.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 8 -0.4      -0.6 183 +0.2 160 75.5 45 0.0 1 0.0 1
174 Eastern Washington 9.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 12 - 8 -0.6      +0.9 137 -1.5 227 65.5 269 0.0 1 0.0 1
246 Portland St. 3.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 11 -4.8      -2.1 230 -2.7 272 83.6 6 0.0 1 0.0 1
247 Idaho St. 2.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 9 - 11 -4.9      -1.3 208 -3.6 288 69.3 177 0.0 1 0.0 1
251 Montana St. 2.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 9 - 11 -5.1      -1.3 205 -3.9 294 72.3 93 0.0 1 0.0 1
257 Sacramento St. 2.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 9 - 11 -5.5      -2.6 248 -2.9 278 64.1 303 0.0 1 0.0 1
262 Idaho 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 12 -5.8      -3.8 281 -1.9 243 64.4 298 0.0 1 0.0 1
295 Southern Utah 1.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 18 7 - 13 -7.5      -3.4 266 -4.1 304 76.1 38 0.0 1 0.0 1
326 Northern Arizona 0.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 23 5 - 15 -10.6      -7.5 338 -3.2 283 69.6 165 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Montana 1.8 62.8 19.4 8.3 4.2 2.7 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Weber St. 3.6 17.8 22.9 17.9 12.9 9.7 6.6 4.8 3.1 2.3 1.4 0.5
Northern Colorado 4.2 11.4 18.4 17.1 13.7 11.7 8.4 7.0 5.3 3.6 2.2 1.3
Eastern Washington 4.3 10.9 17.0 16.6 14.2 11.9 9.2 7.0 5.5 4.2 2.3 1.0
Portland St. 6.3 3.0 6.3 8.9 10.7 11.4 11.5 12.3 11.6 10.0 8.3 6.0
Idaho St. 6.3 3.0 6.2 9.1 10.5 11.9 11.7 11.5 10.7 10.4 8.7 6.3
Montana St. 6.5 2.5 5.5 8.2 9.9 10.4 12.4 12.1 11.8 11.0 9.4 6.7
Sacramento St. 6.6 2.3 5.4 7.4 9.7 10.9 11.6 11.9 11.4 10.9 10.5 8.1
Idaho 6.8 1.8 4.5 7.6 8.7 10.1 11.3 12.0 12.8 12.2 11.2 7.8
Southern Utah 7.6 0.9 2.8 4.5 6.5 7.7 9.4 11.6 12.8 14.8 15.1 13.8
Northern Arizona 8.9 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.2 5.4 8.2 11.2 14.5 20.2 30.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Montana 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.4 3.7 5.3 7.8 11.0 12.9 17.1 15.6 13.6 7.7
Weber St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.4 3.8 5.3 7.0 9.1 10.4 11.5 12.3 10.6 9.1 7.6 4.7 2.2 0.5
Northern Colorado 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.9 4.4 5.8 6.8 9.3 9.7 11.2 11.4 10.6 8.8 7.0 4.7 2.7 1.2 0.2
Eastern Washington 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.1 4.4 6.0 7.6 9.1 11.0 10.9 11.1 9.9 8.6 6.6 4.2 2.5 1.0 0.3
Portland St. 9 - 11 0.2 0.5 1.6 2.7 4.7 6.2 8.2 9.1 11.0 10.2 10.4 9.5 8.1 6.3 4.8 2.9 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Idaho St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.9 1.4 3.0 4.6 6.3 8.3 9.4 9.8 11.0 10.2 9.2 8.1 6.8 4.6 2.9 2.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Montana St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.4 4.8 6.7 8.8 10.2 11.1 10.5 10.1 9.1 7.1 6.1 4.0 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Sacramento St. 9 - 11 0.3 0.8 2.1 4.0 5.6 7.5 9.1 9.4 10.5 10.5 10.1 8.8 7.1 5.2 3.9 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Idaho 8 - 12 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.8 6.1 7.9 9.7 11.0 10.7 10.5 9.8 8.0 6.8 5.3 3.3 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 7 - 13 0.5 2.0 3.7 6.7 8.5 10.1 12.0 10.8 10.5 9.2 7.5 6.3 4.6 3.3 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 5 - 15 2.9 5.7 9.4 11.0 13.3 12.4 11.1 10.0 8.0 5.7 3.9 2.9 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Montana 62.8% 52.3 9.0 1.3 0.2
Weber St. 17.8% 11.9 4.9 0.9 0.1
Northern Colorado 11.4% 7.1 3.4 0.8 0.1
Eastern Washington 10.9% 6.7 3.4 0.7 0.2
Portland St. 3.0% 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.1
Idaho St. 3.0% 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.1
Montana St. 2.5% 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1
Sacramento St. 2.3% 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.1
Idaho 1.8% 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Southern Utah 0.9% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.3% 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Montana 55.5% 53.5% 2.1% 13   0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.2 2.0 5.8 11.9 12.7 9.8 5.4 2.1 44.5 4.4%
Weber St. 14.8% 14.3% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.4 2.9 3.4 3.2 2.1 85.2 0.7%
Northern Colorado 9.8% 9.4% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.6 2.3 2.4 1.8 90.2 0.4%
Eastern Washington 9.2% 9.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.3 90.8 0.1%
Portland St. 3.1% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.2 96.9 0.0%
Idaho St. 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 97.5 0.0%
Montana St. 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 97.5 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.0 97.8 0.0%
Idaho 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 98.0 0.0%
Southern Utah 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 98.8 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Montana 55.5% 1.9% 54.5% 15.5% 5.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Weber St. 14.8% 1.3% 14.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 9.8% 1.3% 9.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 9.2% 1.2% 8.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 3.1% 0.6% 2.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 2.5% 0.6% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 2.5% 0.8% 2.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.2% 0.7% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 2.0% 0.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 1.2% 0.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 96.8 3.2 0.0
1st Round 96.6% 1.0 3.4 94.8 1.8
2nd Round 20.6% 0.2 79.4 20.5 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 6.9% 0.1 93.1 6.9 0.0
Elite Eight 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8 0.0
Final Four 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1