Preseason Rankings
Montana
Big Sky
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#73
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.0#183
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#72
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#79
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 2.0% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.3% 2.0% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.9% 2.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.5% 60.8% 45.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.4% 6.8% 1.1%
Average Seed 12.2 11.9 13.2
.500 or above 96.1% 98.4% 91.8%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 99.0% 97.2%
Conference Champion 62.8% 67.4% 54.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.9% 2.0% 1.5%
First Round54.5% 59.5% 45.0%
Second Round15.5% 18.9% 9.1%
Sweet Sixteen5.5% 6.8% 3.1%
Elite Eight1.5% 2.0% 0.8%
Final Four0.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Home) - 65.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 0.60.1 - 0.6
Quad 1b0.4 - 0.90.5 - 1.5
Quad 21.3 - 1.61.7 - 3.1
Quad 35.1 - 2.56.9 - 5.6
Quad 414.9 - 1.721.8 - 7.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 85   Georgia St. W 72-71 65%    
  Nov 16, 2018 330   Incarnate Word W 83-64 96%    
  Nov 17, 2018 170   Miami (OH) W 73-66 74%    
  Nov 18, 2018 148   Georgia Southern W 76-70 71%    
  Nov 28, 2018 41   @ Creighton L 75-78 29%    
  Dec 08, 2018 90   @ UC Irvine W 71-69 45%    
  Dec 17, 2018 199   North Dakota St. W 75-66 85%    
  Dec 19, 2018 66   @ Arizona L 73-74 37%    
  Dec 22, 2018 79   @ South Dakota St. W 78-77 43%    
  Dec 29, 2018 326   @ Northern Arizona W 79-61 90%    
  Dec 31, 2018 295   @ Southern Utah W 84-69 84%    
  Jan 03, 2019 257   Sacramento St. W 76-63 91%    
  Jan 05, 2019 246   Portland St. W 86-74 90%    
  Jan 10, 2019 174   @ Eastern Washington W 76-68 65%    
  Jan 12, 2019 172   @ Northern Colorado W 79-71 64%    
  Jan 19, 2019 262   @ Idaho W 75-62 79%    
  Jan 24, 2019 247   Idaho St. W 79-67 89%    
  Jan 26, 2019 147   Weber St. W 75-69 78%    
  Feb 02, 2019 251   @ Montana St. W 81-69 79%    
  Feb 07, 2019 262   Idaho W 75-62 91%    
  Feb 09, 2019 174   Eastern Washington W 76-68 81%    
  Feb 14, 2019 147   @ Weber St. W 75-69 59%    
  Feb 16, 2019 247   @ Idaho St. W 79-67 76%    
  Feb 23, 2019 251   Montana St. W 81-69 90%    
  Feb 25, 2019 172   Northern Colorado W 79-71 81%    
  Mar 02, 2019 295   Southern Utah W 84-69 92%    
  Mar 04, 2019 326   Northern Arizona W 79-61 96%    
  Mar 07, 2019 246   @ Portland St. W 86-74 76%    
  Mar 09, 2019 257   @ Sacramento St. W 76-63 78%    
Projected Record 21.8 - 7.2 16.3 - 3.7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.7 7.4 14.0 15.2 13.6 7.7 62.8 1st
2nd 0.2 1.2 3.5 5.9 5.1 3.0 0.5 19.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.5 2.7 1.5 0.4 0.1 8.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 4.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.4 3.7 5.3 7.8 11.0 12.9 17.1 15.6 13.6 7.7 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 7.7    7.7
19-1 100.0% 13.6    13.4 0.2
18-2 97.0% 15.2    13.8 1.3 0.0
17-3 82.1% 14.0    10.8 3.1 0.2
16-4 57.5% 7.4    4.6 2.5 0.3
15-5 33.2% 3.7    1.8 1.4 0.5 0.0
14-6 14.3% 1.1    0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1
13-7 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 62.8% 62.8 52.3 9.0 1.3 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 7.7% 94.4% 87.3% 7.1% 8.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.4 56.1%
19-1 13.6% 82.0% 76.2% 5.8% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 2.6 3.3 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.4 24.3%
18-2 15.6% 72.8% 69.5% 3.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.8 3.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.2 10.7%
17-3 17.1% 59.0% 58.0% 1.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.6 2.6 0.8 0.1 7.0 2.5%
16-4 12.9% 53.3% 53.1% 0.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.1 2.3 1.3 0.2 6.0 0.5%
15-5 11.0% 38.8% 38.8% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.3 6.8 0.0%
14-6 7.8% 27.4% 27.4% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.4 5.7
13-7 5.3% 23.4% 23.4% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 4.1
12-8 3.7% 16.5% 16.5% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 3.1
11-9 2.4% 14.4% 14.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.1
10-10 1.3% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2
9-11 0.8% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 0.7
8-12 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 55.5% 53.5% 2.1% 12.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.2 2.0 5.8 11.9 12.7 9.8 5.4 2.1 44.5 4.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 99.9% 3.3 14.1 11.1 27.1 30.5 14.3 2.4 0.2 0.1 0.1