Preseason Rankings
Arizona
Pac-12
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.0#66
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.3#221
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#41
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#113
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.2% 4.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 4.0% 4.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 8.4% 4.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.9% 33.7% 9.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 27.1% 27.8% 6.3%
Average Seed 8.5 8.5 10.4
.500 or above 70.8% 71.9% 36.7%
.500 or above in Conference 66.2% 67.0% 41.1%
Conference Champion 9.9% 10.2% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 2.7% 10.0%
First Four5.6% 5.7% 2.4%
First Round30.3% 31.0% 8.2%
Second Round15.3% 15.7% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen5.8% 5.9% 0.5%
Elite Eight2.4% 2.5% 0.4%
Final Four1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston Baptist (Home) - 96.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.7 - 3.50.7 - 3.5
Quad 1b1.4 - 3.02.1 - 6.5
Quad 23.8 - 3.86.0 - 10.3
Quad 35.6 - 2.111.5 - 12.5
Quad 46.4 - 0.618.0 - 13.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 312   Houston Baptist W 88-71 97%    
  Nov 11, 2018 317   Cal Poly W 80-63 97%    
  Nov 14, 2018 249   UTEP W 77-64 93%    
  Nov 19, 2018 30   Iowa St. L 73-77 38%    
  Nov 20, 2018 5   Gonzaga L 71-81 18%    
  Nov 21, 2018 13   Auburn L 75-82 28%    
  Nov 29, 2018 148   Georgia Southern W 78-71 81%    
  Dec 02, 2018 96   @ Connecticut W 74-71 51%    
  Dec 06, 2018 152   Utah Valley W 76-69 81%    
  Dec 09, 2018 39   @ Alabama L 71-73 32%    
  Dec 15, 2018 48   Baylor L 70-72 54%    
  Dec 19, 2018 73   Montana W 74-73 63%    
  Dec 22, 2018 131   UC Davis W 73-68 77%    
  Jan 03, 2019 84   Colorado W 73-71 67%    
  Jan 05, 2019 87   Utah W 71-69 65%    
  Jan 09, 2019 108   @ Stanford W 76-72 54%    
  Jan 12, 2019 198   @ California W 77-67 72%    
  Jan 17, 2019 17   Oregon L 69-75 41%    
  Jan 19, 2019 82   Oregon St. W 72-70 67%    
  Jan 24, 2019 58   @ USC L 73-74 38%    
  Jan 26, 2019 50   @ UCLA L 77-79 35%    
  Jan 31, 2019 43   @ Arizona St. L 78-80 34%    
  Feb 07, 2019 42   Washington L 74-76 52%    
  Feb 09, 2019 191   Washington St. W 80-71 85%    
  Feb 14, 2019 87   @ Utah W 71-69 47%    
  Feb 17, 2019 84   @ Colorado W 73-71 47%    
  Feb 21, 2019 198   California W 77-67 87%    
  Feb 24, 2019 108   Stanford W 76-72 73%    
  Feb 28, 2019 82   @ Oregon St. W 72-70 47%    
  Mar 02, 2019 17   @ Oregon L 69-75 24%    
  Mar 09, 2019 43   Arizona St. L 78-80 53%    
Projected Record 18.0 - 13.0 9.9 - 8.1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.3 3.0 2.2 0.9 0.2 9.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.6 3.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.1 2.9 0.7 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.6 2.7 0.6 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.1 3.0 0.5 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.0 5.1 3.0 0.5 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.2 3.3 0.6 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.6 3.1 0.7 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.6 2.5 0.6 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.4 2.5 4.5 6.1 8.2 10.3 11.8 11.8 11.0 9.6 8.3 6.1 4.1 2.3 0.9 0.2 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.9% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 94.7% 2.2    1.8 0.4 0.0
15-3 72.6% 3.0    1.9 1.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 37.3% 2.3    0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0
13-5 14.3% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.9% 9.9 5.9 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 94.1% 55.6% 38.6% 2.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.8%
17-1 0.9% 98.5% 40.5% 58.1% 2.9 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.6%
16-2 2.3% 99.8% 27.4% 72.5% 4.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-3 4.1% 96.0% 25.3% 70.7% 5.9 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 94.6%
14-4 6.1% 90.3% 14.3% 76.0% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 88.7%
13-5 8.3% 75.7% 13.7% 62.0% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.0 71.9%
12-6 9.6% 58.5% 11.8% 46.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.0 53.0%
11-7 11.0% 35.5% 7.1% 28.4% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 30.6%
10-8 11.8% 19.7% 5.5% 14.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.5 15.1%
9-9 11.8% 9.4% 4.3% 5.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 10.7 5.3%
8-10 10.3% 3.4% 2.5% 0.8% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9 0.9%
7-11 8.2% 3.7% 3.5% 0.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.9 0.2%
6-12 6.1% 1.1% 1.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0
5-13 4.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5
4-14 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.5
3-15 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.4
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 32.9% 7.9% 25.0% 8.5 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.3 3.1 2.8 4.0 5.0 5.4 2.8 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.3 67.1 27.1%