Preseason Rankings
Gonzaga
West Coast
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.2#5
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.9#128
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+10.9#6
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#8
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.3% 3.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 17.4% 17.4% 4.7%
Top 2 Seed 33.9% 56.9% 17.7%
Top 4 Seed 56.7% 56.9% 17.7%
Top 6 Seed 71.1% 56.9% 17.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.8% 94.9% 79.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.1% 84.3% 61.1%
Average Seed 4.5 4.5 7.9
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.8% 100.0%
Conference Champion 80.7% 80.8% 71.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.1% 2.1% 7.4%
First Round93.8% 93.9% 77.1%
Second Round76.6% 76.7% 52.3%
Sweet Sixteen51.2% 51.3% 29.9%
Elite Eight31.8% 31.9% 15.6%
Final Four18.8% 18.9% 9.9%
Championship Game11.0% 11.0% 2.7%
National Champion6.1% 6.1% 0.3%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Home) - 99.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.9 - 2.11.9 - 2.1
Quad 1b1.9 - 0.73.8 - 2.8
Quad 24.7 - 0.98.5 - 3.7
Quad 37.7 - 0.516.2 - 4.2
Quad 410.5 - 0.126.7 - 4.3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 247   Idaho St. W 87-64 99%    
  Nov 10, 2018 243   Texas Southern W 91-68 99%    
  Nov 15, 2018 64   Texas A&M W 80-70 88%    
  Nov 19, 2018 76   Illinois W 84-73 85%    
  Nov 20, 2018 66   Arizona W 81-71 82%    
  Nov 21, 2018 4   Duke L 79-80 50%    
  Nov 26, 2018 199   North Dakota St. W 83-63 98%    
  Dec 01, 2018 41   @ Creighton W 83-75 67%    
  Dec 05, 2018 42   Washington W 80-72 83%    
  Dec 09, 2018 9   Tennessee W 74-72 57%    
  Dec 15, 2018 6   @ North Carolina W 81-80 41%    
  Dec 18, 2018 256   Texas Arlington W 90-66 99%    
  Dec 21, 2018 200   Denver W 83-63 97%    
  Dec 28, 2018 340   North Alabama W 88-56 99.8%   
  Dec 31, 2018 204   Cal St. Bakersfield W 80-59 98%    
  Jan 05, 2019 217   Santa Clara W 81-60 98%    
  Jan 10, 2019 168   Pacific W 83-65 96%    
  Jan 12, 2019 137   @ San Francisco W 80-64 86%    
  Jan 17, 2019 165   Loyola Marymount W 85-67 96%    
  Jan 19, 2019 241   @ Portland W 85-62 95%    
  Jan 24, 2019 217   @ Santa Clara W 81-60 94%    
  Jan 31, 2019 63   @ BYU W 78-68 72%    
  Feb 02, 2019 121   San Diego W 80-65 93%    
  Feb 07, 2019 137   San Francisco W 80-64 94%    
  Feb 09, 2019 59   St. Mary's W 76-67 85%    
  Feb 14, 2019 165   @ Loyola Marymount W 85-67 90%    
  Feb 16, 2019 121   @ San Diego W 80-65 83%    
  Feb 21, 2019 234   Pepperdine W 87-65 98%    
  Feb 23, 2019 63   BYU W 78-68 86%    
  Feb 28, 2019 168   @ Pacific W 83-65 90%    
  Mar 02, 2019 59   @ St. Mary's W 76-67 70%    
Projected Record 26.7 - 4.3 14.3 - 1.7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.0 7.3 18.6 27.2 25.4 80.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.1 5.2 2.4 0.0 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.5 0.1 4.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.4 7.6 12.6 21.1 27.2 25.4 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 25.4    25.4
15-1 100.0% 27.2    25.8 1.5
14-2 88.4% 18.6    14.4 4.2 0.1
13-3 58.1% 7.3    3.9 3.0 0.4 0.0
12-4 26.0% 2.0    0.7 0.9 0.3 0.1
11-5 5.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 80.7% 80.7 70.1 9.6 0.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 25.4% 100.0% 84.0% 16.0% 1.9 12.2 8.3 2.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-1 27.2% 99.7% 72.8% 26.9% 3.2 4.7 6.7 5.7 4.8 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.8%
14-2 21.1% 98.4% 65.3% 33.2% 5.3 0.4 1.6 2.8 4.2 3.4 2.7 2.0 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 95.5%
13-3 12.6% 94.2% 55.4% 38.8% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 87.1%
12-4 7.6% 83.3% 43.5% 39.7% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 70.4%
11-5 3.4% 68.2% 40.8% 27.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 46.3%
10-6 1.6% 44.6% 23.9% 20.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 27.3%
9-7 0.7% 29.6% 14.0% 15.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 18.1%
8-8 0.3% 26.6% 21.4% 5.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.6%
7-9 0.1% 2.6% 2.1% 0.5% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5%
6-10 0.0% 42.6% 42.6% 13.0 0.0 0.0
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 94.8% 67.1% 27.7% 4.5 17.4 16.6 11.6 11.2 7.8 6.5 5.2 4.4 4.1 4.2 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.2 84.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.8% 100.0% 1.3 69.9 28.4 1.6 0.0