Preseason Rankings
BYU
West Coast
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.3#63
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.5#217
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#79
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#41
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 7.6% 1.8%
Top 4 Seed 2.6% 7.6% 1.8%
Top 6 Seed 5.8% 7.6% 1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.4% 57.5% 27.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 23.6% 49.3% 19.8%
Average Seed 9.1 8.1 9.5
.500 or above 88.6% 97.8% 87.1%
.500 or above in Conference 86.6% 94.5% 85.4%
Conference Champion 11.5% 19.7% 10.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.2% 1.1%
First Four6.3% 8.3% 6.0%
First Round28.4% 53.7% 24.4%
Second Round14.3% 29.6% 11.8%
Sweet Sixteen5.2% 11.7% 4.2%
Elite Eight1.9% 4.8% 1.4%
Final Four0.8% 2.2% 0.6%
Championship Game0.3% 0.9% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.6% 0.1%

Next Game: Nevada (Away) - 13.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.7 - 3.50.7 - 3.5
Quad 1b1.0 - 1.61.7 - 5.1
Quad 22.9 - 2.44.6 - 7.6
Quad 36.3 - 2.210.9 - 9.8
Quad 49.5 - 0.720.5 - 10.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 7   @ Nevada L 72-80 14%    
  Nov 09, 2018 152   Utah Valley W 74-66 84%    
  Nov 13, 2018 328   Northwestern St. W 78-59 98%    
  Nov 15, 2018 283   Oral Roberts W 77-62 95%    
  Nov 17, 2018 349   Alabama A&M W 79-55 99%    
  Nov 21, 2018 323   Rice W 78-60 97%    
  Nov 24, 2018 37   Houston L 69-72 52%    
  Nov 28, 2018 75   @ Illinois St. W 73-71 45%    
  Dec 01, 2018 147   @ Weber St. W 74-67 64%    
  Dec 05, 2018 144   Utah St. W 74-67 80%    
  Dec 08, 2018 87   Utah W 69-66 59%    
  Dec 12, 2018 246   Portland St. W 84-71 92%    
  Dec 15, 2018 139   UNLV W 79-73 70%    
  Dec 22, 2018 45   @ San Diego St. L 69-71 34%    
  Dec 29, 2018 21   @ Mississippi St. L 68-73 25%    
  Jan 03, 2019 168   @ Pacific W 74-66 67%    
  Jan 05, 2019 59   @ St. Mary's L 67-68 38%    
  Jan 10, 2019 241   Portland W 76-63 91%    
  Jan 12, 2019 217   Santa Clara W 73-61 88%    
  Jan 17, 2019 234   @ Pepperdine W 78-66 78%    
  Jan 19, 2019 137   @ San Francisco W 71-65 60%    
  Jan 24, 2019 59   St. Mary's L 67-68 59%    
  Jan 31, 2019 5   Gonzaga L 68-78 28%    
  Feb 02, 2019 165   Loyola Marymount W 76-68 83%    
  Feb 07, 2019 241   @ Portland W 76-63 78%    
  Feb 09, 2019 168   Pacific W 74-66 83%    
  Feb 14, 2019 121   @ San Diego W 71-66 57%    
  Feb 16, 2019 165   @ Loyola Marymount W 76-68 66%    
  Feb 21, 2019 137   San Francisco W 71-65 77%    
  Feb 23, 2019 5   @ Gonzaga L 68-78 14%    
  Mar 02, 2019 121   San Diego W 71-66 74%    
Projected Record 20.5 - 10.5 10.4 - 5.6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 4.3 2.8 0.6 11.5 1st
2nd 0.2 2.1 6.5 9.9 8.3 2.6 29.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.1 7.8 8.5 3.4 0.3 23.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 3.0 6.0 4.1 0.9 0.0 14.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 4.2 2.0 0.3 8.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 2.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.0 0.1 3.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.6 5.9 9.0 11.4 14.3 16.0 14.2 11.5 6.9 2.8 0.6 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
15-1 100.0% 2.8    2.0 0.8
14-2 62.1% 4.3    2.5 1.7 0.1
13-3 24.5% 2.8    0.9 1.6 0.3 0.0
12-4 6.2% 0.9    0.1 0.5 0.2 0.1
11-5 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 11.5% 11.5 6.2 4.6 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.6% 99.8% 43.4% 56.4% 3.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-1 2.8% 94.6% 28.1% 66.5% 5.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 92.4%
14-2 6.9% 86.0% 25.3% 60.7% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.0 81.3%
13-3 11.5% 68.2% 20.7% 47.6% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.6 60.0%
12-4 14.2% 47.3% 12.8% 34.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.5 39.5%
11-5 16.0% 27.8% 8.7% 19.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.5 20.9%
10-6 14.3% 13.1% 5.9% 7.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.4 7.6%
9-7 11.4% 7.1% 4.5% 2.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.6 2.7%
8-8 9.0% 3.4% 2.7% 0.7% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.7 0.7%
7-9 5.9% 2.7% 2.7% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.8
6-10 3.6% 2.4% 2.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
5-11 2.1% 1.4% 1.4% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
4-12 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-13 0.5% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 31.4% 10.3% 21.2% 9.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.4 3.8 5.0 6.5 4.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 68.6 23.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.9 6.6 93.4