IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Rice
Conference USA
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-9.9	#323
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.0	#207
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.6	#316

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.3	#309

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.8	15.5	15.8

.500 or above	4.8%	18.4%	3.7%
.500 or above in Conference	21.3%	36.9%	19.9%
Conference Champion	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	41.6%	26.3%	42.9%

First Four	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
First Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Penn (Away) - 7.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 1.2	0.0 - 1.2
Quad 1b	0.0 - 1.4	0.0 - 2.5
Quad 2	0.2 - 3.7	0.3 - 6.3
Quad 3	1.6 - 8.3	1.9 - 14.5
Quad 4	5.8 - 6.8	7.7 - 21.3

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2018	125	@ Penn	L	64-77	8%
Nov 12, 2018	349	Alabama A&M	W	70-64	79%
Nov 14, 2018	37	@ Houston	L	61-82	1%
Nov 17, 2018	328	Northwestern St.	W	70-69	65%
Nov 21, 2018	63	@ BYU	L	60-78	3%
Nov 25, 2018	81	@ Wichita St.	L	64-80	5%
Nov 28, 2018	203	@ Texas St.	L	60-68	18%
Dec 01, 2018	227	Lamar	L	67-73	40%
Dec 15, 2018	177	UC Santa Barbara	L	65-74	30%
Dec 18, 2018	311	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	L	75-76	37%
Dec 21, 2018	253	Nebraska Omaha	L	72-77	44%
Dec 29, 2018	132	North Texas	L	64-76	21%
Jan 03, 2019	163	Southern Miss	L	64-74	28%
Jan 05, 2019	141	Louisiana Tech	L	64-76	24%
Jan 10, 2019	158	@ Texas San Antonio	L	70-80	13%
Jan 12, 2019	249	@ UTEP	L	66-71	25%
Jan 19, 2019	132	@ North Texas	L	64-76	10%
Jan 24, 2019	157	Middle Tennessee	L	62-72	27%
Jan 26, 2019	187	UAB	L	65-74	30%
Jan 31, 2019	301	@ Charlotte	L	73-75	34%
Feb 02, 2019	102	@ Old Dominion	L	58-72	8%
Feb 07, 2019	60	Western Kentucky	L	64-83	10%
Feb 09, 2019	99	Marshall	L	72-86	17%
Feb 14, 2019	226	@ Florida International	L	68-74	23%
Feb 16, 2019	266	@ Florida Atlantic	L	68-72	28%
Feb 23, 2019	249	@ UTEP	L	66-71	26%
Mar 03, 2019	157	Middle Tennessee	L	62-72	27%
Mar 06, 2019	301	@ Charlotte	L	73-75	35%
Mar 09, 2019	301	Charlotte	L	73-75	53%
Projected Record						7.7 - 21.3	4.4 - 13.6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-14	1-13	2-12	3-11	4-10	5-9	6-8	7-7	8-6	9-5	10-4	11-3	12-2	13-1	14-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.0		0.0	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.2	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0		0.6	3rd
4th										0.0	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.0			0.9	4th
5th									0.0	0.2	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0			1.4	5th
6th								0.0	0.2	1.0	0.7	0.2					2.1	6th
7th								0.1	1.0	1.5	0.5	0.0					3.1	7th
8th						0.0	0.2	1.0	2.1	0.8	0.0						4.1	8th
9th						0.1	1.2	3.0	1.6	0.2	0.0						6.2	9th
10th					0.1	1.2	3.5	2.8	0.4	0.0							8.0	10th
11th				0.1	1.3	4.3	3.6	0.9	0.0								10.2	11th
12th			0.3	2.2	5.3	4.3	1.5	0.1	0.0								13.6	12th
13th		0.5	3.7	7.4	5.9	1.6	0.1	0.0									19.2	13th
14th	4.7	8.4	10.1	5.5	1.5	0.2											30.4	14th

Total	4.7	8.9	14.0	15.2	14.1	11.7	10.1	7.9	5.4	3.7	2.0	1.1	0.7	0.3	0.1			Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
14-0	7.7%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
13-1	5.5%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-2	0.0%
11-3	0.0%
10-4	0.0%
9-5	0.0%
8-6	0.0%
7-7	0.0%

Total	0.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
14-0	0.1%		2.1%	2.1%		13.3														0.0	0.0			0.1
13-1	0.3%		0.3%	0.3%		15.5																0.0	0.0	0.3
12-2	0.7%		2.1%	2.1%		15.1																0.0	0.0	0.7
11-3	1.1%		2.4%	2.4%		15.5																0.0	0.0	1.1
10-4	2.0%		0.8%	0.8%		15.9																0.0	0.0	2.0
9-5	3.7%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	3.7
8-6	5.4%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																0.0	0.0	5.4
7-7	7.9%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.9
6-8	10.1%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	10.1
5-9	11.7%																							11.7
4-10	14.1%																							14.1
3-11	15.2%																							15.2
2-12	14.0%																							14.0
1-13	8.9%																							8.9
0-14	4.7%																							4.7

Total	100%		0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	15.8														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	99.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.5%