Preseason Rankings
Pac-12
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
17 Oregon 71.5%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 8 13 - 5 +13.5      +7.7 19 +5.9 24 66.5 242 0.0 1 0.0 1
42 Washington 49.6%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 7 +10.2      +5.4 51 +4.8 40 72.0 97 0.0 1 0.0 1
43 Arizona St. 48.3%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 7 +10.1      +7.7 20 +2.5 97 76.4 35 0.0 1 0.0 1
50 UCLA 43.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 7 +9.6      +6.7 33 +2.9 86 74.9 52 0.0 1 0.0 1
58 USC 36.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 10 - 8 +8.9      +5.9 44 +2.9 85 67.9 208 0.0 1 0.0 1
66 Arizona 32.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 10 - 8 +8.0      +6.0 41 +2.0 113 67.3 221 0.0 1 0.0 1
82 Oregon St. 19.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 10 +6.0      +3.3 86 +2.6 95 64.3 299 0.0 1 0.0 1
84 Colorado 19.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 8 - 10 +5.9      +2.3 107 +3.7 64 68.8 186 0.0 1 0.0 1
87 Utah 16.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 10 +5.7      +2.4 103 +3.3 75 64.0 306 0.0 1 0.0 1
108 Stanford 9.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 8 - 10 +3.8      +1.0 133 +2.8 89 73.6 67 0.0 1 0.0 1
191 Washington St. 1.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 18 5 - 13 -1.4      +1.5 122 -3.0 281 69.4 172 0.0 1 0.0 1
198 California 0.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 20 4 - 14 -2.1      -2.9 258 +0.8 142 71.2 117 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Oregon 3.1 33.8 18.5 13.4 10.4 8.0 5.7 3.9 2.7 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.1
Washington 4.0 19.6 16.9 14.2 12.0 10.5 7.7 6.4 4.9 3.5 2.4 1.5 0.5
Arizona St. 4.3 17.1 15.8 13.7 11.8 10.6 8.9 6.5 6.0 4.2 3.1 1.6 0.7
UCLA 4.5 15.8 14.3 13.1 12.1 11.0 9.4 7.4 6.3 4.6 3.5 1.8 0.8
USC 4.9 11.8 13.7 12.8 11.6 10.9 9.9 8.9 7.2 5.7 4.1 2.5 1.0
Arizona 5.4 9.9 10.5 10.5 10.9 11.3 10.8 9.8 9.0 6.9 5.4 3.5 1.4
Oregon St. 6.9 4.4 5.4 6.7 7.5 8.7 10.3 11.7 11.9 11.6 10.4 7.6 3.9
Colorado 6.6 5.2 6.6 7.6 8.6 9.2 9.7 10.9 11.1 10.5 9.2 7.3 4.0
Utah 6.7 4.6 6.2 7.1 8.0 9.6 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.1 10.3 7.4 3.8
Stanford 7.5 2.4 3.8 4.9 6.4 8.2 9.4 10.6 12.7 13.2 12.8 10.2 5.7
Washington St. 9.8 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.7 3.9 5.6 7.8 10.8 16.2 22.9 26.7
California 10.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.9 3.1 4.5 6.6 10.3 15.2 23.7 32.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Oregon 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.8 2.2 3.7 5.5 8.1 10.4 12.0 13.7 13.3 11.7 8.6 5.8 2.1
Washington 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.8 3.1 4.6 6.4 8.4 10.1 11.9 12.5 12.4 10.4 8.2 5.1 2.8 0.8
Arizona St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.5 3.8 5.6 6.6 9.0 11.2 11.4 12.4 11.6 9.8 6.7 4.4 2.5 0.6
UCLA 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 4.1 5.7 7.5 10.1 11.1 12.3 11.3 11.1 8.9 6.7 3.7 2.0 0.5
USC 10 - 8 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.1 4.9 6.9 9.1 10.5 11.5 11.5 11.2 10.8 7.3 5.4 3.0 1.1 0.4
Arizona 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.4 2.5 4.5 6.1 8.2 10.3 11.8 11.8 11.0 9.6 8.3 6.1 4.1 2.3 0.9 0.2
Oregon St. 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.8 6.3 8.1 10.2 11.4 12.8 11.1 9.7 7.8 6.2 4.3 2.7 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1
Colorado 8 - 10 0.2 0.7 2.1 3.7 5.6 7.3 9.4 10.7 11.3 10.9 10.0 8.9 7.5 5.0 3.5 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1
Utah 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.7 5.8 8.1 9.8 11.3 11.0 11.2 10.0 8.4 6.8 4.7 3.3 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.1
Stanford 8 - 10 0.2 1.3 2.8 4.8 8.0 10.4 12.3 12.0 11.6 10.4 8.9 6.5 4.8 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0
Washington St. 5 - 13 3.2 7.7 11.5 13.6 14.9 13.1 11.3 8.4 6.1 3.9 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
California 4 - 14 4.2 9.2 14.3 15.5 14.5 13.1 9.4 7.6 4.9 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Oregon 33.8% 23.8 7.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0
Washington 19.6% 12.6 4.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 17.1% 10.6 4.9 1.2 0.3 0.0
UCLA 15.8% 9.9 4.6 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
USC 11.8% 7.1 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arizona 9.9% 5.9 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Oregon St. 4.4% 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Colorado 5.2% 2.9 1.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Utah 4.6% 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stanford 2.4% 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Washington St. 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
California 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Oregon 71.5% 24.5% 47.0% 10   5.0 6.3 5.9 6.7 6.0 5.6 5.9 5.9 6.7 7.0 6.9 2.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 28.5 62.2%
Washington 49.6% 13.6% 36.0% 11   1.3 2.4 2.7 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.1 5.1 6.5 6.8 3.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 50.4 41.7%
Arizona St. 48.3% 13.5% 34.8% 11   1.2 2.0 2.5 3.3 4.0 3.6 4.3 5.0 5.3 5.9 6.9 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 51.7 40.2%
UCLA 43.4% 12.1% 31.3% 0.8 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.8 2.7 3.6 3.5 5.6 6.6 7.5 3.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 56.6 35.6%
USC 36.4% 9.5% 26.8% 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.4 4.2 5.1 6.5 3.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 63.6 29.7%
Arizona 32.9% 7.9% 25.0% 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.3 3.1 2.8 4.0 5.0 5.4 2.8 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.3 67.1 27.1%
Oregon St. 19.3% 5.0% 14.3% 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.9 3.0 4.0 2.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 80.7 15.1%
Colorado 19.4% 5.0% 14.4% 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.8 4.1 2.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 80.6 15.1%
Utah 16.4% 4.6% 11.8% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.3 3.2 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.3 83.6 12.4%
Stanford 9.7% 3.2% 6.6% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.4 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 90.3 6.8%
Washington St. 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 98.8 0.4%
California 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1 0.5%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Oregon 71.5% 6.0% 68.7% 46.8% 24.1% 12.2% 6.3% 3.3% 1.4%
Washington 49.6% 7.0% 46.2% 27.3% 12.1% 5.2% 2.4% 1.1% 0.4%
Arizona St. 48.3% 6.5% 45.0% 26.4% 12.0% 5.1% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3%
UCLA 43.4% 7.1% 40.1% 22.0% 9.0% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%
USC 36.4% 6.2% 33.0% 17.3% 7.0% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Arizona 32.9% 5.6% 30.3% 15.3% 5.8% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
Oregon St. 19.3% 4.3% 17.2% 7.6% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Colorado 19.4% 4.6% 17.1% 8.3% 3.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Utah 16.4% 3.6% 14.6% 6.9% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Stanford 9.7% 2.4% 8.5% 3.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Washington St. 1.2% 0.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.5 3.1 16.4 32.3 29.6 14.3 3.7 0.6 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 3.2 5.1 21.4 35.1 25.6 10.2 2.2 0.3 0.0
2nd Round 90.9% 1.8 9.1 31.0 35.3 18.7 5.1 0.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 59.5% 0.8 40.5 42.5 14.5 2.2 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 31.0% 0.3 69.0 27.6 3.1 0.2 0.0
Final Four 14.9% 0.2 85.1 14.3 0.6 0.0
Final Game 6.9% 0.1 93.1 6.8 0.1
Champion 2.7% 0.0 97.3 2.7