Preseason Rankings
Colorado
Pac-12
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.9#84
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.8#186
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#107
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#64
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 2.1% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 1.8% 2.1% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 4.3% 2.1% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.4% 21.5% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15.1% 17.0% 4.5%
Average Seed 9.0 8.9 10.5
.500 or above 72.2% 76.0% 49.6%
.500 or above in Conference 49.1% 51.9% 33.1%
Conference Champion 5.2% 5.8% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.9% 6.0% 12.3%
First Four4.6% 4.9% 2.5%
First Round17.1% 19.1% 5.8%
Second Round8.3% 9.4% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 3.5% 0.7%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.3% 0.3%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Home) - 85.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.2 - 1.60.2 - 1.6
Quad 1b0.7 - 2.30.9 - 3.9
Quad 22.8 - 4.23.8 - 8.0
Quad 36.4 - 3.610.2 - 11.6
Quad 47.1 - 1.117.3 - 12.7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2018 202   Drake W 75-67 85%    
  Nov 16, 2018 253   Nebraska Omaha W 80-69 90%    
  Nov 20, 2018 121   @ San Diego W 70-67 49%    
  Nov 24, 2018 212   @ Air Force W 73-64 70%    
  Nov 28, 2018 241   Portland W 75-65 88%    
  Dec 01, 2018 180   Colorado St. W 76-69 81%    
  Dec 04, 2018 134   South Dakota W 74-70 72%    
  Dec 08, 2018 181   Illinois-Chicago W 77-70 80%    
  Dec 11, 2018 92   @ New Mexico W 77-76 42%    
  Dec 22, 2018 161   Indiana St. W 74-68 69%    
  Dec 23, 2018 201   @ Hawaii W 73-65 67%    
  Dec 25, 2018 301   Charlotte W 82-68 88%    
  Jan 03, 2019 66   @ Arizona L 71-73 33%    
  Jan 05, 2019 43   @ Arizona St. L 75-79 27%    
  Jan 10, 2019 191   Washington St. W 77-70 81%    
  Jan 12, 2019 42   Washington L 71-75 46%    
  Jan 20, 2019 87   @ Utah W 68-67 41%    
  Jan 24, 2019 198   @ California W 74-66 67%    
  Jan 26, 2019 108   @ Stanford W 73-71 46%    
  Jan 31, 2019 82   Oregon St. L 68-69 60%    
  Feb 02, 2019 17   Oregon L 67-75 35%    
  Feb 06, 2019 50   @ UCLA L 74-78 29%    
  Feb 09, 2019 58   @ USC L 70-73 31%    
  Feb 13, 2019 43   Arizona St. L 75-79 45%    
  Feb 17, 2019 66   Arizona L 71-73 53%    
  Feb 20, 2019 191   @ Washington St. W 77-70 64%    
  Feb 23, 2019 42   @ Washington L 71-75 28%    
  Mar 02, 2019 87   Utah W 68-67 61%    
  Mar 07, 2019 50   UCLA L 74-78 47%    
  Mar 09, 2019 58   USC L 70-73 51%    
Projected Record 17.3 - 12.7 8.5 - 9.5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 5.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.6 3rd
4th 0.3 2.1 4.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.5 2.1 0.3 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.6 2.6 0.4 9.7 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 4.8 3.4 0.5 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.7 3.6 0.5 0.0 11.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.1 3.4 0.7 0.0 10.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 2.1 3.5 2.6 0.4 0.1 9.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 2.0 2.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 7.3 11th
12th 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 4.0 12th
Total 0.2 0.7 2.1 3.7 5.6 7.3 9.4 10.7 11.3 10.9 10.0 8.9 7.5 5.0 3.5 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.9% 0.4    0.3 0.0
16-2 89.7% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
15-3 76.0% 1.4    0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0
14-4 45.2% 1.6    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 14.6% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 2.9 1.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 28.7% 71.3% 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 96.3% 25.4% 71.0% 3.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.1%
16-2 1.1% 98.7% 31.4% 67.3% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.1%
15-3 1.9% 94.0% 19.6% 74.4% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 92.5%
14-4 3.5% 90.6% 15.0% 75.5% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 88.9%
13-5 5.0% 70.1% 12.1% 58.0% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 66.0%
12-6 7.5% 51.2% 9.1% 42.2% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.7 46.4%
11-7 8.9% 31.8% 8.4% 23.4% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.1 25.5%
10-8 10.0% 13.5% 4.5% 9.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.6 9.5%
9-9 10.9% 5.9% 3.8% 2.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.3 2.2%
8-10 11.3% 2.7% 2.1% 0.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.9 0.6%
7-11 10.7% 2.1% 2.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.5
6-12 9.4% 2.0% 2.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.2
5-13 7.3% 0.7% 0.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2
4-14 5.6% 0.7% 0.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5
3-15 3.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
2-16 2.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.1
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 19.4% 5.0% 14.4% 9.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.8 4.1 2.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 80.6 15.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.9 17.9 76.9 5.1