IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Illinois-Chicago
Horizon
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.0	#181
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	76.6	#34
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.6	#216

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.6	#147

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	15.9%	26.8%	14.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Average Seed	14.7	13.8	14.8

.500 or above	57.5%	81.4%	54.8%
.500 or above in Conference	80.7%	90.6%	79.5%
Conference Champion	17.6%	28.7%	16.4%
Last Place in Conference	1.6%	0.4%	1.7%

First Four	3.5%	2.2%	3.7%
First Round	14.3%	25.9%	13.0%
Second Round	1.5%	3.1%	1.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.4%	1.0%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Notre Dame (Away) - 10.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.5	0.0 - 0.5
Quad 1b	0.1 - 1.1	0.1 - 1.6
Quad 2	0.7 - 3.0	0.8 - 4.6
Quad 3	3.5 - 5.5	4.4 - 10.1
Quad 4	10.9 - 3.6	15.2 - 13.8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	49	@ Notre Dame	L	67-78	10%
Nov 09, 2018	149	@ Radford	L	67-69	32%
Nov 12, 2018	182	@ Duquesne	W	73-72	39%
Nov 15, 2018	164	William & Mary	L	80-81	58%
Nov 17, 2018	117	Bradley	L	69-73	46%
Nov 28, 2018	106	@ Saint Joseph's	L	73-78	25%
Dec 01, 2018	67	Loyola Chicago	L	66-75	30%
Dec 05, 2018	75	Illinois St.	L	72-80	34%
Dec 08, 2018	84	@ Colorado	L	70-77	20%
Dec 14, 2018	89	@ DePaul	L	72-78	21%
Dec 17, 2018	330	Incarnate Word	W	81-70	88%
Dec 28, 2018	138	@ Wright St.	L	70-73	29%
Dec 30, 2018	128	@ Northern Kentucky	L	73-77	29%
Jan 04, 2019	275	IUPUI	W	73-68	76%
Jan 10, 2019	329	Youngstown St.	W	83-73	87%
Jan 12, 2019	281	Cleveland St.	W	75-70	76%
Jan 17, 2019	261	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	72-67	56%
Jan 19, 2019	235	@ Green Bay	W	80-77	51%
Jan 24, 2019	336	Detroit Mercy	W	86-75	89%
Jan 26, 2019	245	Oakland	W	78-74	71%
Feb 01, 2019	138	Wright St.	L	70-73	50%
Feb 03, 2019	128	Northern Kentucky	L	73-77	48%
Feb 09, 2019	275	@ IUPUI	W	73-68	58%
Feb 14, 2019	281	@ Cleveland St.	W	75-70	57%
Feb 16, 2019	329	@ Youngstown St.	W	83-73	73%
Feb 22, 2019	235	Green Bay	W	80-77	70%
Feb 24, 2019	261	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	72-67	75%
Feb 28, 2019	245	@ Oakland	W	78-74	52%
Mar 02, 2019	336	@ Detroit Mercy	W	86-75	75%
Projected Record						15.2 - 13.8	11.2 - 6.8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Horizon Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.6	3.7	4.8	4.3	2.2	0.6		17.6	1st
2nd											0.1	0.9	3.6	6.2	5.5	2.6	0.3				19.2	2nd
3rd										0.2	1.6	5.6	6.6	3.5	0.8	0.0					18.3	3rd
4th								0.0	0.1	2.2	4.9	5.0	1.6	0.3	0.0						14.1	4th
5th							0.0	0.2	1.7	3.8	3.5	1.1	0.1								10.4	5th
6th						0.0	0.2	1.4	3.1	2.2	0.7	0.0									7.6	6th
7th					0.0	0.2	1.4	2.2	1.6	0.2	0.0										5.7	7th
8th				0.1	0.2	1.2	1.6	0.9	0.2	0.0											4.2	8th
9th			0.1	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.4	0.0													2.0	9th
10th	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0														0.9	10th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	1.1	2.2	3.6	4.8	6.8	8.6	10.8	12.6	12.2	11.6	10.1	7.4	4.6	2.2	0.6			Total

Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.6		0.6
17-1	100.0%	2.2		2.1	0.0
16-2	94.0%	4.3		3.4	0.9	0.0
15-3	64.4%	4.8		3.2	1.4	0.2
14-4	37.1%	3.7		1.5	1.7	0.6	0.0
13-5	14.2%	1.6		0.5	0.8	0.3	0.1
12-6	2.8%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	17.6%	17.6		11.3	4.8	1.2	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.6%		64.6%	62.1%	2.5%	12.0					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.2		6.6%
17-1	2.2%		63.8%	61.8%	2.0%	12.8								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.8		5.2%
16-2	4.6%		49.8%	49.8%	0.0%	13.6										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.7	0.4	0.1	2.3		0.1%
15-3	7.4%		35.7%	35.7%		14.3												0.0	0.1	0.6	0.9	0.9	0.2	4.8
14-4	10.1%		23.7%	23.7%		14.9													0.0	0.2	0.5	1.1	0.6	7.7
13-5	11.6%		19.5%	19.5%		15.2													0.0	0.1	0.2	1.1	0.9	9.3
12-6	12.2%		13.5%	13.5%		15.7													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.0	10.6
11-7	12.6%		10.8%	10.8%		15.8														0.0	0.1	0.2	1.1	11.3
10-8	10.8%		7.8%	7.8%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.7	9.9
9-9	8.6%		4.1%	4.1%		16.0																0.0	0.4	8.2
8-10	6.8%		2.4%	2.4%		16.0																0.0	0.2	6.6
7-11	4.8%		2.0%	2.0%		16.0																	0.1	4.7
6-12	3.6%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.0	3.5
5-13	2.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	2.2
4-14	1.1%																							1.1
3-15	0.5%																							0.5
2-16	0.2%																							0.2
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		15.9%	15.8%	0.1%	14.7					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.9	2.0	2.8	4.4	5.4	84.1		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	4.0				100.0