IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.0	#182
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.3	#275
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.3	#157

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.3	#214

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.9%	3.7%	1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.5%	0.7%	0.1%
Average Seed	12.9	12.5	14.2

.500 or above	48.1%	60.0%	31.9%
.500 or above in Conference	36.3%	43.1%	27.0%
Conference Champion	2.7%	3.6%	1.4%
Last Place in Conference	12.6%	9.2%	17.3%

First Four	0.5%	0.4%	0.5%
First Round	2.7%	3.4%	1.7%
Second Round	0.6%	0.8%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Home) - 57.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.7	0.0 - 0.7
Quad 1b	0.2 - 1.6	0.2 - 2.2
Quad 2	1.2 - 4.1	1.4 - 6.4
Quad 3	4.1 - 6.0	5.5 - 12.4
Quad 4	9.8 - 3.3	15.3 - 15.7

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 10, 2018	164	William & Mary	L	76-77	58%
Nov 12, 2018	181	Illinois-Chicago	L	72-73	61%
Nov 17, 2018	149	Radford	L	64-66	43%
Nov 20, 2018	49	@ Notre Dame	L	63-74	12%
Nov 25, 2018	306	Umass Lowell	W	79-72	82%
Nov 30, 2018	167	Pittsburgh	L	66-67	48%
Dec 05, 2018	99	Marshall	L	76-82	41%
Dec 09, 2018	333	Longwood	W	76-65	89%
Dec 13, 2018	341	Maryland Eastern Shore	W	74-61	91%
Dec 16, 2018	327	Maine	W	76-66	88%
Dec 19, 2018	57	Penn St.	L	64-74	28%
Dec 22, 2018	273	Eastern Kentucky	W	74-69	75%
Dec 31, 2018	228	NJIT	W	70-67	70%
Jan 05, 2019	88	@ Davidson	L	65-71	21%
Jan 09, 2019	267	Fordham	W	68-63	75%
Jan 12, 2019	106	Saint Joseph's	L	69-74	43%
Jan 16, 2019	130	@ Richmond	L	70-74	29%
Jan 20, 2019	208	@ George Washington	W	69-67	47%
Jan 23, 2019	71	Saint Louis	L	62-70	32%
Jan 26, 2019	127	Virginia Commonwealth	L	71-75	48%
Jan 30, 2019	103	Rhode Island	L	67-72	43%
Feb 02, 2019	107	@ Dayton	L	67-72	26%
Feb 06, 2019	119	St. Bonaventure	L	69-73	47%
Feb 09, 2019	267	@ Fordham	W	68-63	56%
Feb 13, 2019	166	@ La Salle	L	71-72	37%
Feb 16, 2019	208	George Washington	W	69-67	66%
Feb 23, 2019	129	@ George Mason	L	70-74	29%
Feb 27, 2019	119	@ St. Bonaventure	L	69-73	28%
Mar 02, 2019	154	Massachusetts	L	69-71	55%
Mar 06, 2019	71	@ Saint Louis	L	62-70	18%
Mar 09, 2019	107	Dayton	L	67-72	44%
Projected Record						15.3 - 15.7	7.5 - 10.5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.4	1.0	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.1		2.7	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	1.1	1.4	0.7	0.2	0.0				3.6	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.1	1.7	1.0	0.1	0.0					4.0	3rd
4th										0.0	1.0	2.4	1.3	0.1	0.0						4.9	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	2.7	2.3	0.3	0.0							5.9	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	2.6	3.3	0.8	0.0								7.0	6th
7th								0.1	2.1	4.2	1.4	0.1									7.9	7th
8th							0.0	1.4	4.2	2.2	0.2	0.0									8.1	8th
9th						0.0	0.6	3.7	3.7	0.4											8.4	9th
10th					0.0	0.6	3.1	4.5	1.4	0.1											9.7	10th
11th				0.0	0.5	2.7	4.6	2.0	0.1												10.0	11th
12th			0.0	0.6	2.6	4.4	2.4	0.4	0.0												10.4	12th
13th		0.1	0.9	2.8	3.4	2.1	0.3	0.0													9.6	13th
14th	0.3	1.4	2.5	2.3	1.1	0.2	0.0														8.0	14th

Total	0.3	1.5	3.4	5.7	7.7	10.1	11.1	12.1	11.8	10.1	8.7	6.9	4.6	2.9	1.8	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.1			Total

Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
16-2	94.1%	0.4		0.4	0.1	0.0
15-3	76.1%	0.6		0.4	0.2	0.1
14-4	53.4%	1.0		0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-5	12.9%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-6	3.3%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0						0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.7%	2.7		1.4	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		98.1%	25.0%	73.1%	4.2		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0										0.0		97.5%
17-1	0.1%		87.8%	73.7%	14.1%	9.4					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		53.6%
16-2	0.5%		62.0%	22.0%	40.0%	9.3						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.2		51.2%
15-3	0.8%		37.4%	23.4%	14.0%	11.3									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.5		18.2%
14-4	1.8%		15.2%	11.7%	3.5%	12.4										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		1.5		3.9%
13-5	2.9%		13.0%	12.1%	1.0%	12.7											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		2.5		1.1%
12-6	4.6%		6.0%	6.0%		13.1												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		4.3
11-7	6.9%		3.9%	3.9%	0.0%	14.2												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	6.6		0.0%
10-8	8.7%		2.9%	2.9%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	8.5
9-9	10.1%		2.2%	2.2%		15.0														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	9.8
8-10	11.8%		1.7%	1.7%		15.2														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	11.6
7-11	12.1%		0.8%	0.8%		15.6															0.0	0.0	0.1	12.0
6-12	11.1%		0.7%	0.7%		15.8																0.0	0.1	11.1
5-13	10.1%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	10.0
4-14	7.7%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																0.0	0.0	7.6
3-15	5.7%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	5.7
2-16	3.4%																							3.4
1-17	1.5%																							1.5
0-18	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		2.9%	2.5%	0.4%	12.9		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.5	97.1		0.5%