Preseason Rankings
Richmond
Atlantic 10
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.6#130
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.7#188
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#102
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#167
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 9.1% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.9% 2.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 14.6
.500 or above 72.2% 73.7% 44.9%
.500 or above in Conference 61.1% 62.0% 43.0%
Conference Champion 7.6% 7.8% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 4.3% 13.7%
First Four1.3% 1.3% 1.4%
First Round8.2% 8.5% 3.1%
Second Round2.2% 2.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Longwood (Home) - 94.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 0.80.1 - 0.8
Quad 1b0.4 - 1.50.5 - 2.3
Quad 21.6 - 3.42.1 - 5.7
Quad 34.9 - 4.77.0 - 10.4
Quad 411.2 - 2.418.2 - 12.8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 333   Longwood W 80-66 95%    
  Nov 14, 2018 318   St. Francis Brooklyn W 80-68 91%    
  Nov 16, 2018 275   IUPUI W 74-65 85%    
  Nov 19, 2018 67   Loyola Chicago L 67-72 31%    
  Nov 21, 2018 173   Wyoming W 80-77 61%    
  Nov 25, 2018 240   Hampton W 80-73 81%    
  Nov 28, 2018 69   @ Georgetown L 74-79 24%    
  Dec 01, 2018 115   Wake Forest L 74-75 57%    
  Dec 05, 2018 345   Coppin St. W 78-61 96%    
  Dec 15, 2018 283   Oral Roberts W 76-67 84%    
  Dec 19, 2018 102   Old Dominion L 66-68 55%    
  Dec 22, 2018 255   High Point W 74-66 75%    
  Dec 29, 2018 150   @ South Alabama W 75-73 46%    
  Jan 06, 2019 107   @ Dayton L 72-73 36%    
  Jan 09, 2019 103   Rhode Island L 71-73 55%    
  Jan 12, 2019 208   @ George Washington W 72-67 58%    
  Jan 16, 2019 182   Duquesne W 74-70 71%    
  Jan 19, 2019 88   @ Davidson L 69-72 31%    
  Jan 23, 2019 106   @ Saint Joseph's L 74-75 36%    
  Jan 26, 2019 119   St. Bonaventure L 73-74 58%    
  Jan 30, 2019 71   @ Saint Louis L 66-71 26%    
  Feb 02, 2019 166   La Salle W 76-73 68%    
  Feb 06, 2019 129   George Mason L 74-75 60%    
  Feb 09, 2019 208   George Washington W 72-67 76%    
  Feb 13, 2019 127   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 75-76 40%    
  Feb 20, 2019 267   Fordham W 73-64 83%    
  Feb 23, 2019 166   @ La Salle W 76-73 48%    
  Feb 27, 2019 129   @ George Mason L 74-75 39%    
  Mar 02, 2019 127   Virginia Commonwealth L 75-76 59%    
  Mar 06, 2019 154   @ Massachusetts W 73-71 47%    
  Mar 09, 2019 88   Davidson L 69-72 50%    
Projected Record 18.2 - 12.8 9.4 - 8.6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.2 7.6 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 3.4 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 3.6 2.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.1 2.8 0.7 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.9 3.5 0.6 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.4 2.8 4.3 1.2 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 4.3 1.8 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.2 2.7 0.2 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.0 3.3 0.5 0.0 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.2 0.9 0.1 6.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.7 1.2 0.1 5.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.4 1.5 0.1 5.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.7 14th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.5 5.4 7.1 8.7 10.7 11.2 11.9 10.9 9.0 7.6 5.2 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 95.6% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 92.7% 1.4    1.2 0.2 0.0
15-3 74.8% 2.3    1.4 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-4 36.9% 1.9    0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 13.9% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.6% 7.6 4.1 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 37.6% 62.4% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.6% 83.2% 35.1% 48.1% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 74.2%
16-2 1.5% 68.5% 38.5% 30.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 48.8%
15-3 3.1% 38.7% 24.0% 14.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9 19.4%
14-4 5.2% 26.0% 19.8% 6.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.9 7.8%
13-5 7.6% 18.0% 15.7% 2.3% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 6.2 2.7%
12-6 9.0% 10.6% 10.4% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.0 0.2%
11-7 10.9% 7.5% 7.5% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.1
10-8 11.9% 5.0% 5.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 11.3
9-9 11.2% 2.7% 2.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.9
8-10 10.7% 2.1% 2.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.5
7-11 8.7% 1.9% 1.9% 15.5 0.1 0.1 8.5
6-12 7.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 7.0
5-13 5.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.4
4-14 3.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.5
3-15 2.0% 2.0
2-16 1.1% 1.1
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.8% 7.0% 1.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.9 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.4 91.2 1.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 92.9 1.8 5.4