Preseason Rankings
Dayton
Atlantic 10
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#107
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.8#259
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#98
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#137
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.6% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 16.0% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.1% 7.0% 1.8%
Average Seed 10.6 10.5 12.0
.500 or above 67.1% 71.9% 43.6%
.500 or above in Conference 67.7% 70.8% 52.5%
Conference Champion 11.8% 13.0% 5.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 2.5% 7.0%
First Four2.3% 2.5% 1.3%
First Round13.2% 14.8% 5.8%
Second Round4.3% 4.9% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.5% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Florida (Home) - 83.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.3 - 2.70.3 - 2.7
Quad 1b0.6 - 2.00.9 - 4.7
Quad 21.9 - 3.32.8 - 7.9
Quad 35.2 - 3.88.0 - 11.8
Quad 49.5 - 1.717.5 - 13.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 213   North Florida W 85-78 83%    
  Nov 10, 2018 345   Coppin St. W 77-59 98%    
  Nov 16, 2018 169   Purdue Fort Wayne W 79-75 74%    
  Nov 21, 2018 33   Butler L 68-75 26%    
  Nov 22, 2018 2   Virginia L 53-68 9%    
  Nov 23, 2018 53   Oklahoma L 77-82 31%    
  Nov 30, 2018 21   Mississippi St. L 66-75 28%    
  Dec 04, 2018 336   Detroit Mercy W 85-69 95%    
  Dec 08, 2018 13   @ Auburn L 71-82 11%    
  Dec 16, 2018 98   Tulsa L 70-71 47%    
  Dec 19, 2018 211   Western Michigan W 75-68 80%    
  Dec 22, 2018 319   Presbyterian W 74-61 92%    
  Dec 29, 2018 148   Georgia Southern W 74-71 69%    
  Jan 06, 2019 130   Richmond W 73-72 64%    
  Jan 09, 2019 208   @ George Washington W 72-65 62%    
  Jan 13, 2019 154   Massachusetts W 72-69 70%    
  Jan 16, 2019 127   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 74-73 44%    
  Jan 19, 2019 119   @ St. Bonaventure W 72-71 42%    
  Jan 23, 2019 129   George Mason W 73-72 64%    
  Jan 26, 2019 267   @ Fordham W 71-61 72%    
  Jan 29, 2019 106   Saint Joseph's L 72-73 60%    
  Feb 02, 2019 182   Duquesne W 72-67 74%    
  Feb 05, 2019 71   @ Saint Louis L 64-68 30%    
  Feb 09, 2019 103   @ Rhode Island L 70-71 39%    
  Feb 16, 2019 127   Virginia Commonwealth W 74-73 63%    
  Feb 19, 2019 88   @ Davidson L 68-70 35%    
  Feb 23, 2019 71   Saint Louis L 64-68 50%    
  Feb 26, 2019 154   @ Massachusetts W 72-69 51%    
  Mar 01, 2019 103   Rhode Island L 70-71 60%    
  Mar 06, 2019 166   La Salle W 74-70 72%    
  Mar 09, 2019 182   @ Duquesne W 72-67 56%    
Projected Record 17.5 - 13.5 10.1 - 7.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 3.7 2.4 1.1 0.3 11.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.9 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 4.0 3.2 0.7 0.1 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 4.3 3.2 0.6 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.8 3.2 0.7 0.1 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.6 4.2 1.1 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 4.3 1.6 0.2 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.8 2.3 0.3 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.0 0.5 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.9 0.9 0.0 5.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 1.3 0.1 5.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.2 0.2 4.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.7 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.9 5.8 7.9 9.8 10.3 11.7 11.1 10.1 9.1 6.5 4.9 2.6 1.1 0.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 92.3% 2.4    2.1 0.3 0.0
15-3 74.0% 3.7    2.3 1.1 0.2
14-4 41.1% 2.7    0.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.7% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.8% 11.8 7.0 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 99.9% 58.2% 41.6% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
17-1 1.1% 90.4% 43.9% 46.5% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 82.9%
16-2 2.6% 77.8% 33.0% 44.8% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 66.8%
15-3 4.9% 60.0% 24.9% 35.0% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 46.7%
14-4 6.5% 36.3% 18.8% 17.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.1 21.6%
13-5 9.1% 20.3% 14.2% 6.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.3 7.1%
12-6 10.1% 13.4% 10.9% 2.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.7 2.8%
11-7 11.1% 8.1% 7.4% 0.7% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.2 0.7%
10-8 11.7% 5.1% 5.0% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.1 0.1%
9-9 10.3% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.0 0.0%
8-10 9.8% 2.8% 2.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.5
7-11 7.9% 2.2% 2.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.7
6-12 5.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.7
5-13 3.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 3.9
4-14 2.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
3-15 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.3% 8.7% 5.6% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.7 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.4 85.7 6.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 100.0