Preseason Rankings
Butler
Big East
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#33
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.5#194
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#39
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#36
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
#1 Seed 2.3% 2.4% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 5.2% 15.7% 4.9%
Top 4 Seed 14.8% 15.7% 4.9%
Top 6 Seed 24.8% 15.7% 4.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 54.8% 57.1% 31.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 50.1% 52.4% 27.3%
Average Seed 6.8 6.7 8.0
.500 or above 77.6% 80.1% 52.5%
.500 or above in Conference 60.6% 62.4% 42.3%
Conference Champion 10.8% 11.4% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 8.1% 7.1% 17.5%
First Four4.4% 4.6% 3.1%
First Round52.6% 54.8% 30.1%
Second Round33.2% 34.9% 16.6%
Sweet Sixteen15.5% 16.5% 6.4%
Elite Eight6.9% 7.5% 1.8%
Final Four3.2% 3.5% 0.9%
Championship Game1.4% 1.5% 0.5%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.2%

Next Game: Miami (OH) (Home) - 91.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.3 - 4.31.3 - 4.3
Quad 1b2.3 - 3.13.6 - 7.4
Quad 25.3 - 3.28.9 - 10.6
Quad 35.7 - 1.214.6 - 11.9
Quad 44.4 - 0.219.0 - 12.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 170   Miami (OH) W 75-64 91%    
  Nov 12, 2018 336   Detroit Mercy W 90-67 99%    
  Nov 16, 2018 118   Mississippi W 80-72 84%    
  Nov 21, 2018 107   Dayton W 75-68 74%    
  Nov 22, 2018 157   Middle Tennessee W 74-63 83%    
  Nov 23, 2018 16   Florida L 70-73 41%    
  Dec 01, 2018 71   @ Saint Louis W 69-65 52%    
  Dec 05, 2018 207   Brown W 84-70 93%    
  Dec 08, 2018 186   Northern Illinois W 78-66 91%    
  Dec 15, 2018 25   Indiana L 71-72 45%    
  Dec 18, 2018 319   Presbyterian W 79-58 98%    
  Dec 21, 2018 90   UC Irvine W 73-67 77%    
  Dec 29, 2018 16   @ Florida L 70-73 31%    
  Jan 02, 2019 69   Georgetown W 77-74 70%    
  Jan 05, 2019 41   Creighton W 77-76 62%    
  Jan 09, 2019 52   @ Seton Hall W 75-73 45%    
  Jan 13, 2019 44   @ Xavier W 76-75 43%    
  Jan 16, 2019 89   @ DePaul W 76-70 59%    
  Jan 19, 2019 31   St. John's L 74-75 59%    
  Jan 22, 2019 8   Villanova L 71-77 41%    
  Jan 25, 2019 41   @ Creighton W 77-76 42%    
  Jan 30, 2019 24   Marquette L 76-78 55%    
  Feb 02, 2019 52   Seton Hall W 75-73 64%    
  Feb 09, 2019 69   @ Georgetown W 77-74 51%    
  Feb 12, 2019 31   @ St. John's L 74-75 39%    
  Feb 16, 2019 89   DePaul W 76-70 76%    
  Feb 20, 2019 24   @ Marquette L 76-78 36%    
  Feb 26, 2019 47   Providence W 71-70 64%    
  Mar 02, 2019 8   @ Villanova L 71-77 23%    
  Mar 05, 2019 44   Xavier W 76-75 63%    
  Mar 09, 2019 47   @ Providence W 71-70 44%    
Projected Record 19.0 - 12.0 9.4 - 8.6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 2.7 2.5 1.7 0.6 0.2 10.8 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 4.0 3.8 2.2 0.6 0.1 12.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.3 5.2 3.9 1.2 0.2 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.3 3.3 0.8 0.1 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.4 3.1 0.4 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.9 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.2 2.5 0.4 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 2.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.9 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 3.7 5.7 7.3 8.7 10.2 11.3 11.3 10.5 9.5 7.2 5.0 3.1 1.8 0.6 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 96.5% 1.7    1.5 0.1
15-3 81.4% 2.5    2.0 0.5 0.0
14-4 52.5% 2.7    1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-5 30.2% 2.2    0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0
12-6 8.0% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.8% 10.8 6.8 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 50.9% 49.1% 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.6% 100.0% 54.1% 45.9% 1.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.8% 100.0% 27.1% 72.9% 2.0 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.1% 100.0% 29.3% 70.7% 2.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 5.0% 99.7% 23.5% 76.2% 3.8 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-5 7.2% 98.8% 18.9% 79.9% 4.8 0.2 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.5%
12-6 9.5% 96.2% 13.2% 83.0% 6.4 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.4 95.6%
11-7 10.5% 89.6% 10.3% 79.3% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.1 88.4%
10-8 11.3% 75.3% 7.4% 67.9% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.8 73.3%
9-9 11.3% 51.7% 5.0% 46.7% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 5.5 49.2%
8-10 10.2% 25.0% 4.7% 20.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 21.3%
7-11 8.7% 10.9% 3.8% 7.1% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 7.4%
6-12 7.3% 3.9% 3.1% 0.8% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.9%
5-13 5.7% 2.5% 2.2% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 0.3%
4-14 3.7% 2.0% 2.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
3-15 2.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
2-16 1.0% 1.3% 1.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
1-17 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 54.8% 9.4% 45.4% 6.8 2.3 2.9 4.5 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.7 5.6 6.2 5.9 4.6 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 45.2 50.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 99.4 0.6