Preseason Rankings
Xavier
Big East
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#44
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.8#65
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#35
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#66
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.3% 1.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.5% 10.9% 0.9%
Top 4 Seed 10.6% 10.9% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 19.5% 10.9% 0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.3% 46.5% 14.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 40.5% 41.7% 12.0%
Average Seed 7.1 7.0 8.9
.500 or above 69.9% 71.3% 32.7%
.500 or above in Conference 52.2% 53.3% 23.8%
Conference Champion 8.6% 8.9% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 11.0% 10.5% 22.5%
First Four4.1% 4.2% 2.4%
First Round43.4% 44.5% 13.2%
Second Round26.4% 27.1% 7.6%
Sweet Sixteen11.3% 11.7% 2.0%
Elite Eight4.6% 4.8% 0.5%
Final Four2.0% 2.0% 0.1%
Championship Game0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: IUPUI (Home) - 96.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.2 - 4.61.2 - 4.6
Quad 1b2.1 - 3.33.4 - 7.9
Quad 24.5 - 3.57.9 - 11.4
Quad 34.6 - 1.412.4 - 12.8
Quad 45.6 - 0.318.0 - 13.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 275   IUPUI W 80-64 96%    
  Nov 10, 2018 196   Evansville W 75-63 92%    
  Nov 13, 2018 22   Wisconsin L 69-72 51%    
  Nov 19, 2018 13   Auburn L 80-85 34%    
  Nov 20, 2018 45   San Diego St. W 76-75 50%    
  Nov 21, 2018 76   Illinois W 81-78 62%    
  Nov 28, 2018 170   Miami (OH) W 78-68 88%    
  Dec 01, 2018 245   Oakland W 85-70 94%    
  Dec 05, 2018 142   Ohio W 83-75 84%    
  Dec 08, 2018 36   @ Cincinnati L 69-70 37%    
  Dec 15, 2018 273   Eastern Kentucky W 85-69 95%    
  Dec 18, 2018 51   @ Missouri W 73-72 41%    
  Dec 21, 2018 336   Detroit Mercy W 93-71 98%    
  Dec 29, 2018 89   @ DePaul W 79-74 55%    
  Jan 02, 2019 52   Seton Hall W 78-77 62%    
  Jan 06, 2019 24   @ Marquette L 79-82 32%    
  Jan 09, 2019 69   Georgetown W 80-78 67%    
  Jan 13, 2019 33   Butler L 75-76 57%    
  Jan 18, 2019 8   @ Villanova L 75-82 21%    
  Jan 23, 2019 47   Providence W 74-73 61%    
  Jan 26, 2019 24   Marquette L 79-82 52%    
  Jan 31, 2019 69   @ Georgetown W 80-78 48%    
  Feb 03, 2019 41   @ Creighton L 80-81 40%    
  Feb 09, 2019 89   DePaul W 79-74 73%    
  Feb 13, 2019 41   Creighton L 80-81 59%    
  Feb 16, 2019 47   @ Providence W 74-73 41%    
  Feb 20, 2019 52   @ Seton Hall W 78-77 42%    
  Feb 24, 2019 8   Villanova L 75-82 38%    
  Feb 28, 2019 31   @ St. John's L 77-78 35%    
  Mar 05, 2019 33   @ Butler L 75-76 37%    
  Mar 09, 2019 31   St. John's L 77-78 55%    
Projected Record 18.0 - 13.0 8.8 - 9.2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.5 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 8.6 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 3.1 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 10.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.3 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.3 2.5 4.8 3.0 0.6 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.8 5.4 2.8 0.3 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.6 2.5 0.2 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.7 2.8 0.3 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 3.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.2 9th
10th 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.9 1.7 0.7 0.2 6.7 10th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.8 5.0 7.0 8.9 9.9 11.8 11.0 10.3 9.2 7.3 5.9 4.4 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 98.3% 1.1    1.1 0.1
15-3 77.5% 1.8    1.2 0.5 0.0
14-4 56.8% 2.5    1.6 0.8 0.1
13-5 31.9% 1.9    0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1
12-6 9.3% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.6% 8.6 5.1 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 40.1% 59.9% 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.2% 100.0% 29.5% 70.5% 2.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.3% 100.0% 25.4% 74.5% 2.9 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.4% 100.0% 18.9% 81.0% 3.9 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 5.9% 98.3% 15.5% 82.8% 5.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.9%
12-6 7.3% 94.3% 14.2% 80.1% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 93.4%
11-7 9.2% 87.2% 11.8% 75.4% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 85.4%
10-8 10.3% 72.2% 10.3% 61.9% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.9 69.0%
9-9 11.0% 45.2% 6.4% 38.8% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 41.5%
8-10 11.8% 21.0% 4.6% 16.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4 17.1%
7-11 9.9% 6.6% 2.2% 4.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 4.4%
6-12 8.9% 3.4% 2.5% 1.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.6 1.0%
5-13 7.0% 2.9% 2.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.8
4-14 5.0% 2.5% 2.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.9
3-15 2.8% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
2-16 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.7
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 45.3% 8.1% 37.2% 7.1 1.3 2.2 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.8 4.9 5.1 4.6 4.8 4.1 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 54.7 40.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0