Preseason Rankings
Bradley
Missouri Valley
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#117
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.8#286
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#151
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#83
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.6% 12.2% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.0% 2.2% 0.4%
Average Seed 12.5 12.4 13.6
.500 or above 73.5% 75.9% 46.5%
.500 or above in Conference 62.8% 64.5% 43.9%
Conference Champion 11.5% 11.9% 6.2%
Last Place in Conference 6.2% 5.6% 12.4%
First Four1.5% 1.5% 0.8%
First Round10.8% 11.4% 4.5%
Second Round3.1% 3.3% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.0% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Home) - 91.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.50.0 - 0.5
Quad 1b0.2 - 1.10.3 - 1.6
Quad 21.5 - 3.41.7 - 5.0
Quad 36.2 - 5.58.0 - 10.5
Quad 49.5 - 2.017.5 - 12.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 308   Southeast Missouri St. W 77-65 92%    
  Nov 14, 2018 146   Jacksonville St. W 66-64 68%    
  Nov 17, 2018 181   @ Illinois-Chicago W 73-69 54%    
  Nov 20, 2018 56   SMU L 62-67 31%    
  Nov 21, 2018 57   Penn St. L 64-69 31%    
  Nov 24, 2018 350   Chicago St. W 81-61 98%    
  Nov 28, 2018 275   @ IUPUI W 70-60 71%    
  Dec 01, 2018 92   New Mexico L 72-74 54%    
  Dec 04, 2018 264   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 68-59 70%    
  Dec 15, 2018 298   Eastern Illinois W 70-59 88%    
  Dec 18, 2018 148   @ Georgia Southern W 70-68 47%    
  Dec 22, 2018 236   SE Louisiana W 70-62 83%    
  Jan 02, 2019 116   Northern Iowa L 61-62 60%    
  Jan 05, 2019 161   @ Indiana St. W 70-67 50%    
  Jan 08, 2019 120   @ Valparaiso W 69-68 40%    
  Jan 12, 2019 190   Missouri St. W 68-63 74%    
  Jan 16, 2019 202   Drake W 72-66 77%    
  Jan 20, 2019 104   @ Southern Illinois L 66-67 38%    
  Jan 23, 2019 75   Illinois St. L 68-71 49%    
  Jan 26, 2019 190   @ Missouri St. W 68-63 55%    
  Jan 30, 2019 196   @ Evansville W 65-60 58%    
  Feb 02, 2019 104   Southern Illinois L 66-67 58%    
  Feb 06, 2019 116   @ Northern Iowa L 61-62 39%    
  Feb 09, 2019 161   Indiana St. W 70-67 69%    
  Feb 13, 2019 67   Loyola Chicago L 63-68 45%    
  Feb 16, 2019 75   @ Illinois St. L 68-71 30%    
  Feb 19, 2019 202   @ Drake W 72-66 58%    
  Feb 23, 2019 196   Evansville W 65-60 75%    
  Feb 27, 2019 120   Valparaiso W 69-68 59%    
  Mar 02, 2019 67   @ Loyola Chicago L 63-68 27%    
Projected Record 17.5 - 12.5 9.6 - 8.4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.0 2.9 2.0 0.6 0.2 11.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.6 4.2 2.5 0.7 0.1 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 4.8 4.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.3 2.2 4.9 4.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.1 3.4 0.8 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.0 3.0 0.4 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.5 4.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 2.8 5.2 7.4 8.5 10.2 10.8 11.0 11.2 9.7 7.8 5.8 3.7 2.1 0.6 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 96.3% 2.0    1.8 0.2
15-3 80.3% 2.9    2.3 0.6 0.0
14-4 51.8% 3.0    1.7 1.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 26.4% 2.1    0.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.5% 11.5 7.5 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 90.5% 69.3% 21.2% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.1%
17-1 0.6% 86.8% 53.6% 33.2% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 71.5%
16-2 2.1% 69.0% 46.2% 22.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 42.3%
15-3 3.7% 42.1% 28.8% 13.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.1 18.7%
14-4 5.8% 30.9% 24.5% 6.4% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.0 8.4%
13-5 7.8% 18.6% 16.2% 2.4% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.3 2.8%
12-6 9.7% 14.8% 14.4% 0.3% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 8.3 0.4%
11-7 11.2% 9.7% 9.6% 0.1% 13.8 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 10.1 0.1%
10-8 11.0% 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 10.1 0.0%
9-9 10.8% 4.2% 4.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 10.3
8-10 10.2% 3.7% 3.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9.8
7-11 8.5% 2.3% 2.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.3
6-12 7.4% 2.3% 2.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.2
5-13 5.2% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 5.1
4-14 2.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.7
3-15 2.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
2-16 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.6% 9.8% 1.8% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.4 2.5 1.8 1.1 0.8 88.4 2.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.0 6.3 90.6 3.1