Preseason Rankings
Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#120
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.4#91
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#174
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#71
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.4% 18.6% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.1% 4.9% 0.9%
Average Seed 12.5 11.8 13.2
.500 or above 59.2% 78.0% 51.0%
.500 or above in Conference 61.6% 73.7% 56.3%
Conference Champion 11.3% 17.8% 8.5%
Last Place in Conference 6.7% 2.7% 8.4%
First Four1.4% 2.1% 1.2%
First Round10.7% 17.7% 7.6%
Second Round2.6% 5.3% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 2.0% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Neutral) - 30.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.70.0 - 0.7
Quad 1b0.2 - 1.50.3 - 2.2
Quad 21.4 - 3.71.7 - 5.9
Quad 35.8 - 5.57.5 - 11.4
Quad 48.1 - 2.015.6 - 13.4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2018 60   Western Kentucky L 72-78 30%    
  Nov 16, 2018 183   Monmouth W 75-71 65%    
  Nov 18, 2018 115   Wake Forest L 73-74 49%    
  Nov 21, 2018 320   SIU Edwardsville W 79-66 92%    
  Nov 24, 2018 11   @ West Virginia L 67-79 9%    
  Nov 28, 2018 139   @ UNLV W 78-77 44%    
  Dec 02, 2018 282   UC Riverside W 74-64 86%    
  Dec 04, 2018 255   High Point W 73-64 84%    
  Dec 08, 2018 208   @ George Washington W 72-66 61%    
  Dec 17, 2018 111   Ball St. L 73-74 58%    
  Dec 19, 2018 64   @ Texas A&M L 70-75 25%    
  Jan 02, 2019 75   Illinois St. L 71-75 49%    
  Jan 05, 2019 190   @ Missouri St. W 71-67 55%    
  Jan 08, 2019 117   Bradley L 68-69 60%    
  Jan 12, 2019 104   @ Southern Illinois L 69-70 37%    
  Jan 15, 2019 67   @ Loyola Chicago L 66-71 27%    
  Jan 19, 2019 116   Northern Iowa L 64-65 59%    
  Jan 23, 2019 161   @ Indiana St. W 73-70 50%    
  Jan 26, 2019 202   Drake W 74-69 75%    
  Jan 29, 2019 190   Missouri St. W 71-67 73%    
  Feb 02, 2019 196   @ Evansville W 68-63 57%    
  Feb 05, 2019 75   @ Illinois St. L 71-75 30%    
  Feb 10, 2019 67   Loyola Chicago L 66-71 44%    
  Feb 13, 2019 161   Indiana St. W 73-70 68%    
  Feb 16, 2019 202   @ Drake W 74-69 58%    
  Feb 20, 2019 104   Southern Illinois L 69-70 57%    
  Feb 23, 2019 116   @ Northern Iowa L 64-65 40%    
  Feb 27, 2019 117   @ Bradley L 68-69 41%    
  Mar 02, 2019 196   Evansville W 68-63 74%    
Projected Record 15.6 - 13.4 9.5 - 8.5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.8 3.0 1.8 0.8 0.2 11.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.6 3.9 2.5 0.7 0.1 12.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.7 4.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.3 2.3 4.9 3.5 1.0 0.1 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.3 3.2 0.8 0.1 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.1 2.9 0.4 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.8 2.3 0.3 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 2.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 3.5 5.3 7.0 8.5 10.7 11.1 10.6 10.3 9.8 7.6 5.5 3.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 96.1% 1.8    1.6 0.2
15-3 80.7% 3.0    2.2 0.8 0.0
14-4 50.9% 2.8    1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-5 26.0% 2.0    0.5 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.3% 11.3 7.1 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 94.1% 68.0% 26.1% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.6%
17-1 0.8% 75.2% 39.0% 36.2% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 59.3%
16-2 1.9% 64.7% 38.1% 26.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 42.9%
15-3 3.7% 45.0% 29.8% 15.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 2.1 21.5%
14-4 5.5% 31.6% 26.3% 5.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.8 7.2%
13-5 7.6% 18.0% 17.0% 1.0% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.2 1.2%
12-6 9.8% 13.7% 12.7% 1.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 8.4 1.1%
11-7 10.3% 10.7% 10.7% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 9.2
10-8 10.6% 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 9.8 0.0%
9-9 11.1% 4.1% 4.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.6
8-10 10.7% 3.0% 3.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.4
7-11 8.5% 3.2% 3.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.2
6-12 7.0% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.9
5-13 5.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.0 5.2
4-14 3.5% 1.2% 1.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 3.4
3-15 2.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.2
2-16 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 11.4% 9.5% 1.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.4 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.1 0.9 88.6 2.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0