Preseason Rankings
Monmouth
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#183
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.8#84
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#202
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#156
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.9% 12.1% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 14.8
.500 or above 41.6% 51.1% 26.4%
.500 or above in Conference 65.0% 70.7% 55.9%
Conference Champion 11.0% 13.5% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 3.3% 7.7%
First Four1.4% 1.3% 1.6%
First Round9.2% 11.6% 5.5%
Second Round1.1% 1.5% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lehigh (Home) - 61.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 1.20.0 - 1.2
Quad 1b0.1 - 0.90.1 - 2.1
Quad 20.6 - 2.80.8 - 4.9
Quad 33.6 - 6.54.4 - 11.4
Quad 410.1 - 5.114.5 - 16.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 185   Lehigh W 78-77 61%    
  Nov 09, 2018 209   @ Colgate W 73-71 46%    
  Nov 12, 2018 106   @ Saint Joseph's L 72-77 23%    
  Nov 15, 2018 11   West Virginia L 67-83 7%    
  Nov 16, 2018 120   Valparaiso L 71-75 35%    
  Nov 18, 2018 143   Cal St. Fullerton L 73-75 41%    
  Nov 24, 2018 145   Princeton L 69-71 52%    
  Nov 28, 2018 3   @ Kentucky L 66-85 2%    
  Dec 01, 2018 171   @ Bucknell L 76-77 37%    
  Dec 05, 2018 156   @ Hofstra L 76-78 35%    
  Dec 08, 2018 278   @ Albany W 72-67 57%    
  Dec 20, 2018 122   Yale L 72-76 45%    
  Dec 31, 2018 125   @ Penn L 70-74 28%    
  Jan 03, 2019 133   @ Iona L 76-80 29%    
  Jan 05, 2019 178   St. Peter's L 64-65 59%    
  Jan 10, 2019 238   @ Quinnipiac W 74-71 52%    
  Jan 12, 2019 291   Manhattan W 71-65 78%    
  Jan 14, 2019 284   @ Siena W 72-67 58%    
  Jan 17, 2019 220   Fairfield W 75-73 68%    
  Jan 20, 2019 133   Iona L 76-80 48%    
  Jan 24, 2019 162   @ Canisius L 74-75 37%    
  Jan 26, 2019 268   @ Niagara W 83-78 56%    
  Jan 31, 2019 284   Siena W 72-67 76%    
  Feb 02, 2019 110   Rider L 78-83 45%    
  Feb 07, 2019 178   @ St. Peter's L 64-65 40%    
  Feb 09, 2019 220   @ Fairfield W 75-73 48%    
  Feb 15, 2019 110   @ Rider L 78-83 26%    
  Feb 17, 2019 274   Marist W 79-74 74%    
  Feb 22, 2019 162   Canisius L 74-75 56%    
  Feb 24, 2019 238   Quinnipiac W 74-71 70%    
  Mar 01, 2019 291   @ Manhattan W 71-65 60%    
Projected Record 14.5 - 16.5 9.8 - 8.2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.0 3.2 1.9 0.9 0.2 11.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.2 4.2 2.8 0.8 0.1 12.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.2 4.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.6 4.6 1.5 0.3 12.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 4.7 4.4 1.5 0.1 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.9 4.0 4.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.3 3.9 1.2 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.6 3.1 1.2 0.1 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.9 2.4 1.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.9 4.4 6.4 8.5 10.4 11.3 11.4 11.2 9.6 8.2 6.2 4.0 2.0 0.9 0.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.8 0.0
16-2 94.2% 1.9    1.7 0.2 0.0
15-3 78.6% 3.2    2.2 0.9 0.1
14-4 48.7% 3.0    1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 18.0% 1.5    0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.0% 11.0 7.1 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 85.1% 71.2% 13.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 48.3%
17-1 0.9% 62.8% 57.8% 4.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 11.7%
16-2 2.0% 45.2% 43.7% 1.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 2.6%
15-3 4.0% 30.2% 29.8% 0.4% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 2.8 0.5%
14-4 6.2% 23.8% 23.7% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 4.7 0.0%
13-5 8.2% 21.1% 21.1% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 6.5
12-6 9.6% 12.6% 12.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 8.4
11-7 11.2% 10.2% 10.2% 15.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 10.0
10-8 11.4% 5.8% 5.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 10.7
9-9 11.3% 3.3% 3.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 10.9
8-10 10.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 10.2
7-11 8.5% 1.7% 1.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 8.3
6-12 6.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.3
5-13 4.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.4
4-14 2.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.9
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.9% 9.7% 0.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.4 2.5 2.4 90.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%