IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Canisius
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.1	#162
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.3	#146
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.7	#142

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.6	#186

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	13.0%	17.2%	10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	0.6%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.1	13.6	14.6

.500 or above	62.3%	78.8%	51.2%
.500 or above in Conference	74.3%	83.3%	68.3%
Conference Champion	15.2%	20.5%	11.7%
Last Place in Conference	2.9%	1.2%	4.0%

First Four	1.6%	1.3%	1.8%
First Round	12.2%	16.5%	9.4%
Second Round	1.7%	2.8%	0.9%
Sweet Sixteen	0.4%	0.7%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Away) - 40.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.1 - 1.5	0.1 - 1.5
Quad 1b	0.2 - 1.0	0.3 - 2.6
Quad 2	0.7 - 2.1	1.0 - 4.7
Quad 3	3.4 - 4.9	4.4 - 9.6
Quad 4	11.6 - 4.4	15.9 - 14.1

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 13, 2018	171	@ Bucknell	W	77-76	40%
Nov 17, 2018	278	Albany	W	73-67	80%
Nov 19, 2018	15	@ Florida St.	L	72-86	6%
Nov 22, 2018	8	Villanova	L	67-84	7%
Nov 23, 2018	101	Memphis	L	70-74	36%
Nov 25, 2018	187	UAB	W	73-72	55%
Nov 28, 2018	119	@ St. Bonaventure	L	72-75	30%
Dec 05, 2018	233	Robert Morris	W	73-69	74%
Dec 16, 2018	231	@ Elon	W	75-71	54%
Dec 20, 2018	206	@ Holy Cross	W	68-65	49%
Dec 29, 2018	65	Buffalo	L	76-84	34%
Jan 03, 2019	274	@ Marist	W	79-73	61%
Jan 05, 2019	284	@ Siena	W	73-66	62%
Jan 08, 2019	207	Brown	W	79-76	69%
Jan 11, 2019	110	Rider	L	78-82	49%
Jan 13, 2019	133	Iona	L	77-79	53%
Jan 17, 2019	238	@ Quinnipiac	W	75-71	54%
Jan 19, 2019	220	@ Fairfield	W	76-72	51%
Jan 24, 2019	183	Monmouth	W	75-74	64%
Jan 30, 2019	268	@ Niagara	W	83-77	60%
Feb 01, 2019	238	Quinnipiac	W	75-71	73%
Feb 04, 2019	274	Marist	W	79-73	78%
Feb 08, 2019	110	@ Rider	L	78-82	30%
Feb 10, 2019	178	@ St. Peter's	W	65-64	42%
Feb 15, 2019	220	Fairfield	W	76-72	71%
Feb 17, 2019	291	Manhattan	W	72-65	80%
Feb 22, 2019	183	@ Monmouth	W	75-74	44%
Feb 24, 2019	133	@ Iona	L	77-79	34%
Feb 27, 2019	268	Niagara	W	83-77	77%
Mar 01, 2019	284	Siena	W	73-66	79%
Projected Record						15.9 - 14.1	10.6 - 7.4

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.5	1.8	3.4	4.1	3.1	1.8	0.5		15.2	1st
2nd											0.0	0.9	3.5	5.8	3.9	1.5	0.1				15.8	2nd
3rd										0.1	1.3	4.6	5.1	2.6	0.5	0.0					14.1	3rd
4th									0.0	1.0	4.0	4.9	1.8	0.3	0.0						12.0	4th
5th								0.1	0.9	4.2	4.7	1.6	0.1								11.4	5th
6th							0.0	0.7	3.1	4.1	1.3	0.1									9.4	6th
7th						0.0	0.5	2.7	3.4	0.9	0.1										7.5	7th
8th					0.0	0.3	1.8	2.5	1.0	0.0	0.0										5.6	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	1.6	1.7	0.6	0.0												4.3	9th
10th			0.0	0.4	0.9	1.0	0.5	0.1													2.8	10th
11th		0.1	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0													1.6	11th

Total		0.1	0.4	0.8	1.8	3.2	4.5	6.5	8.4	10.4	11.4	12.1	11.1	10.6	7.8	5.6	3.2	1.8	0.5			Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.5		0.5
17-1	100.0%	1.8		1.8	0.1
16-2	95.6%	3.1		2.6	0.6
15-3	73.1%	4.1		2.9	1.1	0.1
14-4	43.8%	3.4		1.4	1.5	0.4	0.0
13-5	17.0%	1.8		0.5	0.8	0.4	0.1
12-6	4.2%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.7%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	15.2%	15.2		9.7	4.3	1.1	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.5%		81.5%	58.7%	22.8%	10.9					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.1		55.2%
17-1	1.8%		58.0%	53.9%	4.1%	11.8				0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.0		0.8		8.9%
16-2	3.2%		45.3%	44.7%	0.6%	12.9										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0	1.8		1.1%
15-3	5.6%		35.2%	35.1%	0.1%	13.5												0.0	0.3	0.7	0.7	0.3	0.0	3.6		0.1%
14-4	7.8%		22.4%	22.3%	0.0%	14.0												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.4	0.1	6.0		0.0%
13-5	10.6%		18.8%	18.8%		14.7													0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.4	8.6
12-6	11.1%		13.7%	13.7%		14.8													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.4	9.6
11-7	12.1%		9.0%	9.0%		15.2													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.5	0.4	11.0
10-8	11.4%		8.5%	8.5%		15.6														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	10.4
9-9	10.4%		3.9%	3.9%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.3	10.0
8-10	8.4%		2.9%	2.9%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.2	8.2
7-11	6.5%		2.0%	2.0%		16.0																0.0	0.1	6.4
6-12	4.5%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	4.4
5-13	3.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.2
4-14	1.8%																							1.8
3-15	0.8%																							0.8
2-16	0.4%																							0.4
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18

Total	100%		13.0%	12.8%	0.2%	14.1				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.5	1.2	2.2	3.1	2.8	2.9	87.0		0.2%