Preseason Rankings
Memphis
American Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.2#101
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.3#273
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#83
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#144
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.5% 1.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.4% 16.5% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.4% 12.3% 2.5%
Average Seed 9.4 9.3 11.3
.500 or above 60.3% 63.3% 30.5%
.500 or above in Conference 54.3% 56.4% 34.0%
Conference Champion 5.0% 5.4% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 3.0% 8.3%
First Four3.1% 3.3% 1.0%
First Round13.8% 14.8% 3.9%
Second Round5.3% 5.7% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 90.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.6 - 3.80.6 - 3.8
Quad 1b0.9 - 2.61.5 - 6.3
Quad 22.5 - 3.64.0 - 9.9
Quad 34.8 - 3.18.9 - 13.0
Quad 47.9 - 1.316.7 - 14.3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 287   Tennessee Tech W 77-66 91%    
  Nov 13, 2018 46   @ LSU L 71-77 22%    
  Nov 17, 2018 122   Yale W 73-72 65%    
  Nov 22, 2018 74   Oklahoma St. L 70-73 41%    
  Nov 23, 2018 162   Canisius W 74-70 64%    
  Nov 25, 2018 112   College of Charleston W 68-67 52%    
  Dec 01, 2018 29   Texas Tech L 65-72 26%    
  Dec 04, 2018 79   South Dakota St. L 75-77 52%    
  Dec 08, 2018 187   UAB W 73-68 76%    
  Dec 15, 2018 9   Tennessee L 63-75 22%    
  Dec 19, 2018 264   Arkansas Little Rock W 71-61 87%    
  Dec 22, 2018 259   Tennessee St. W 70-60 87%    
  Dec 29, 2018 352   Florida A&M W 80-58 98%    
  Jan 03, 2019 81   Wichita St. L 72-74 54%    
  Jan 06, 2019 37   @ Houston L 68-75 21%    
  Jan 10, 2019 290   East Carolina W 77-66 88%    
  Jan 13, 2019 195   @ Tulane W 76-70 61%    
  Jan 19, 2019 56   SMU L 65-70 44%    
  Jan 24, 2019 72   @ Temple L 69-72 30%    
  Jan 27, 2019 55   Central Florida L 63-68 44%    
  Jan 30, 2019 98   @ Tulsa L 71-72 39%    
  Feb 02, 2019 250   @ South Florida W 72-63 70%    
  Feb 07, 2019 36   Cincinnati L 62-69 38%    
  Feb 10, 2019 96   Connecticut L 70-71 57%    
  Feb 13, 2019 290   @ East Carolina W 77-66 74%    
  Feb 16, 2019 55   @ Central Florida L 63-68 26%    
  Feb 20, 2019 195   Tulane W 76-70 77%    
  Feb 23, 2019 81   @ Wichita St. L 72-74 34%    
  Feb 26, 2019 72   Temple L 69-72 50%    
  Mar 02, 2019 36   @ Cincinnati L 62-69 22%    
  Mar 09, 2019 98   Tulsa L 71-72 59%    
Projected Record 16.7 - 14.3 8.9 - 9.1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 5.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 8.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 4.4 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 4.8 3.1 0.4 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.0 3.8 0.5 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.0 3.9 0.8 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.2 2.0 4.6 4.0 0.8 0.0 11.6 8th
9th 0.4 2.2 3.9 3.6 0.9 0.0 11.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.3 2.1 0.5 0.0 8.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.7 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.6 4.5 6.7 8.4 10.3 11.9 11.8 11.4 9.9 7.9 6.1 3.8 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.7% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 90.0% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
15-3 73.3% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 38.1% 1.4    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 11.8% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 2.5 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 76.0% 24.0% 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.3% 100.0% 30.2% 69.8% 3.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.0% 98.2% 30.1% 68.1% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.4%
15-3 2.0% 90.3% 20.2% 70.1% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 87.9%
14-4 3.8% 76.9% 14.2% 62.7% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 73.1%
13-5 6.1% 52.9% 11.4% 41.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.9 46.8%
12-6 7.9% 34.5% 8.5% 26.0% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.2 28.4%
11-7 9.9% 15.0% 4.3% 10.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.4 11.1%
10-8 11.4% 7.9% 4.5% 3.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.5 3.6%
9-9 11.8% 3.5% 2.7% 0.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.4 0.8%
8-10 11.9% 2.2% 2.1% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.6 0.1%
7-11 10.3% 1.7% 1.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.2
6-12 8.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3
5-13 6.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6
4-14 4.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0 4.5
3-15 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.5
2-16 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.0
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 15.4% 4.6% 10.8% 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 2.0 2.4 3.3 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 84.6 11.4%