Preseason Rankings
Connecticut
American Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.0#96
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.7#236
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#91
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#116
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.1% 1.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.9% 17.3% 6.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.2% 12.5% 3.0%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 11.0
.500 or above 70.2% 74.4% 43.2%
.500 or above in Conference 58.0% 60.6% 40.7%
Conference Champion 5.9% 6.4% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 2.0% 5.2%
First Four3.3% 3.6% 1.4%
First Round14.2% 15.4% 6.2%
Second Round6.2% 6.9% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 2.3% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Home) - 86.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.5 - 3.60.5 - 3.6
Quad 1b1.1 - 3.11.6 - 6.8
Quad 22.7 - 3.64.3 - 10.4
Quad 33.7 - 1.98.0 - 12.2
Quad 49.7 - 1.017.7 - 13.3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2018 224   Morehead St. W 76-67 87%    
  Nov 11, 2018 279   UMKC W 78-67 90%    
  Nov 15, 2018 12   Syracuse L 61-71 17%    
  Nov 16, 2018 34   Iowa L 74-80 29%    
  Nov 20, 2018 248   Cornell W 79-69 88%    
  Nov 25, 2018 316   New Hampshire W 73-59 94%    
  Nov 27, 2018 306   Umass Lowell W 83-70 92%    
  Dec 02, 2018 66   Arizona L 71-74 49%    
  Dec 05, 2018 293   Lafayette W 78-66 91%    
  Dec 08, 2018 15   Florida St. L 72-81 22%    
  Dec 15, 2018 291   Manhattan W 73-61 90%    
  Dec 18, 2018 280   Drexel W 78-67 89%    
  Dec 22, 2018 8   Villanova L 68-80 15%    
  Jan 02, 2019 250   @ South Florida W 72-62 72%    
  Jan 05, 2019 55   Central Florida L 63-67 46%    
  Jan 10, 2019 56   SMU L 65-69 47%    
  Jan 12, 2019 36   @ Cincinnati L 62-68 22%    
  Jan 16, 2019 98   @ Tulsa W 72-71 41%    
  Jan 19, 2019 195   Tulane W 76-69 80%    
  Jan 26, 2019 81   Wichita St. L 72-73 55%    
  Jan 31, 2019 55   @ Central Florida L 63-67 28%    
  Feb 03, 2019 290   East Carolina W 77-65 90%    
  Feb 06, 2019 72   @ Temple L 70-72 34%    
  Feb 10, 2019 101   @ Memphis W 71-70 43%    
  Feb 14, 2019 37   Houston L 69-75 40%    
  Feb 21, 2019 56   @ SMU L 65-69 29%    
  Feb 24, 2019 36   Cincinnati L 62-68 41%    
  Feb 28, 2019 81   @ Wichita St. L 72-73 36%    
  Mar 03, 2019 250   South Florida W 72-62 86%    
  Mar 07, 2019 72   Temple L 70-72 52%    
  Mar 10, 2019 290   @ East Carolina W 77-65 77%    
Projected Record 17.7 - 13.3 9.2 - 8.8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 5.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.9 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.8 3rd
4th 0.2 1.5 4.8 2.6 0.4 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 4.8 3.3 0.4 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 5.2 4.2 0.6 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.1 3.9 0.8 0.0 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.7 4.3 1.0 0.1 12.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.0 3.4 0.8 0.1 10.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.9 2.0 0.6 0.1 7.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 3.4 5.5 8.0 10.6 11.9 12.4 11.7 10.7 8.3 6.2 4.6 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.9% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 92.3% 1.1    0.9 0.2 0.0
15-3 75.8% 1.8    1.1 0.6 0.1
14-4 36.2% 1.7    0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 12.3% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 3.1 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 82.0% 18.0% 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 99.8% 35.3% 64.5% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
16-2 1.2% 95.9% 21.2% 74.7% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.8%
15-3 2.4% 89.4% 21.0% 68.4% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 86.6%
14-4 4.6% 72.4% 15.0% 57.5% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 1.3 67.6%
13-5 6.2% 47.0% 10.9% 36.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.3 40.5%
12-6 8.3% 30.0% 8.0% 22.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.8 23.9%
11-7 10.7% 14.9% 7.2% 7.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.1 8.4%
10-8 11.7% 6.6% 4.6% 1.9% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.9 2.0%
9-9 12.4% 4.2% 3.8% 0.5% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.9 0.5%
8-10 11.9% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 11.6 0.0%
7-11 10.6% 1.1% 1.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.4
6-12 8.0% 1.1% 1.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9
5-13 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.5
4-14 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.4
3-15 1.6% 1.6
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.9% 5.3% 10.6% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.4 3.3 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 84.1 11.2%