Preseason Rankings
UMKC
Western Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#279
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.0#96
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#276
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#260
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 5.8% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.1 15.2
.500 or above 18.5% 41.1% 17.2%
.500 or above in Conference 39.7% 57.1% 38.7%
Conference Champion 2.3% 5.9% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 8.9% 3.5% 9.2%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
First Round1.7% 5.3% 1.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.7% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Away) - 5.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 1.30.0 - 1.3
Quad 1b0.1 - 2.00.1 - 3.3
Quad 20.5 - 4.20.6 - 7.6
Quad 32.4 - 6.83.0 - 14.4
Quad 47.7 - 4.910.7 - 19.3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 67   @ Loyola Chicago L 62-76 5%    
  Nov 08, 2018 34   @ Iowa L 71-88 3%    
  Nov 11, 2018 96   @ Connecticut L 67-78 10%    
  Nov 16, 2018 224   Morehead St. L 72-74 41%    
  Nov 17, 2018 174   @ Eastern Washington L 69-75 21%    
  Nov 21, 2018 202   Drake L 71-75 47%    
  Nov 28, 2018 79   @ South Dakota St. L 72-84 8%    
  Dec 01, 2018 169   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 76-82 21%    
  Dec 08, 2018 134   @ South Dakota L 70-79 15%    
  Dec 13, 2018 261   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 68-69 57%    
  Dec 15, 2018 304   McNeese St. W 76-74 67%    
  Dec 19, 2018 219   @ Central Michigan L 72-75 32%    
  Dec 22, 2018 231   Elon L 72-74 52%    
  Dec 27, 2018 41   @ Creighton L 69-85 5%    
  Jan 05, 2019 350   Chicago St. W 81-71 87%    
  Jan 10, 2019 288   California Baptist W 73-72 63%    
  Jan 17, 2019 204   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 66-70 29%    
  Jan 19, 2019 114   @ Grand Canyon L 66-76 15%    
  Jan 24, 2019 152   Utah Valley L 69-76 37%    
  Jan 26, 2019 244   Seattle L 71-72 55%    
  Jan 31, 2019 93   @ New Mexico St. L 66-77 11%    
  Feb 02, 2019 311   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-77 48%    
  Feb 09, 2019 288   @ California Baptist W 73-72 42%    
  Feb 14, 2019 114   Grand Canyon L 66-76 29%    
  Feb 16, 2019 204   Cal St. Bakersfield L 66-70 48%    
  Feb 21, 2019 244   @ Seattle L 71-72 36%    
  Feb 23, 2019 152   @ Utah Valley L 69-76 21%    
  Feb 28, 2019 93   New Mexico St. L 66-77 25%    
  Mar 02, 2019 311   UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-77 67%    
  Mar 09, 2019 350   @ Chicago St. W 81-71 72%    
Projected Record 10.7 - 19.3 6.8 - 9.2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.3 1st
2nd 0.2 0.6 2.1 1.9 0.7 0.1 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 8.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.9 5.6 2.8 0.3 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.8 6.2 2.5 0.1 16.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.0 7.1 6.0 1.7 0.1 18.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.9 6.8 4.3 1.0 0.0 16.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 4.4 4.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 13.7 8th
9th 0.3 1.0 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 4.5 9th
Total 0.3 1.2 3.5 6.4 9.3 12.4 13.7 13.6 12.1 10.4 7.4 4.5 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-2 82.9% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.0
13-3 53.7% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1
12-4 22.4% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-5 3.8% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 51.8% 51.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.1% 57.3% 57.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.6% 26.5% 26.5% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-3 1.6% 17.1% 17.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
12-4 3.0% 11.7% 11.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.6
11-5 4.5% 7.4% 7.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.2
10-6 7.4% 4.2% 4.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.0
9-7 10.4% 2.9% 2.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.1
8-8 12.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.0
7-9 13.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 13.6
6-10 13.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.7
5-11 12.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.4
4-12 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.3
3-13 6.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.3
2-14 3.5% 3.5
1-15 1.2% 1.2
0-16 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%