Preseason Rankings
Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#274
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.7#87
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#221
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#306
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 3.2% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.8 15.4
.500 or above 24.6% 40.4% 18.1%
.500 or above in Conference 31.1% 40.4% 27.3%
Conference Champion 2.1% 3.4% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 19.3% 12.3% 22.2%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.7%
First Round1.5% 2.8% 1.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Away) - 29.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.60.0 - 0.6
Quad 1b0.0 - 0.50.0 - 1.1
Quad 20.2 - 1.70.2 - 2.8
Quad 31.9 - 7.02.1 - 9.8
Quad 49.2 - 8.911.3 - 18.7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 216   @ Army L 76-79 29%    
  Nov 10, 2018 229   Columbia L 79-81 54%    
  Nov 13, 2018 185   @ Lehigh L 77-82 23%    
  Nov 20, 2018 105   @ Stephen F. Austin L 72-82 12%    
  Nov 24, 2018 65   @ Buffalo L 75-89 6%    
  Nov 29, 2018 276   Dartmouth W 73-72 50%    
  Nov 30, 2018 225   LIU Brooklyn L 79-81 43%    
  Dec 08, 2018 337   @ Stetson W 79-73 62%    
  Dec 15, 2018 209   @ Colgate L 72-75 31%    
  Dec 19, 2018 316   @ New Hampshire W 71-68 51%    
  Dec 22, 2018 207   Brown L 78-81 50%    
  Dec 29, 2018 193   @ Hartford L 72-76 26%    
  Jan 03, 2019 162   Canisius L 73-79 39%    
  Jan 08, 2019 291   Manhattan W 70-69 64%    
  Jan 11, 2019 284   Siena W 72-71 62%    
  Jan 13, 2019 178   @ St. Peter's L 63-68 24%    
  Jan 18, 2019 133   @ Iona L 75-84 17%    
  Jan 21, 2019 291   @ Manhattan W 70-69 44%    
  Jan 25, 2019 238   Quinnipiac L 74-76 55%    
  Jan 27, 2019 110   @ Rider L 77-87 16%    
  Jan 31, 2019 133   Iona L 75-84 33%    
  Feb 02, 2019 220   Fairfield L 75-78 51%    
  Feb 04, 2019 162   @ Canisius L 73-79 22%    
  Feb 08, 2019 268   Niagara L 82-83 60%    
  Feb 15, 2019 238   @ Quinnipiac L 74-76 35%    
  Feb 17, 2019 183   @ Monmouth L 74-79 26%    
  Feb 22, 2019 178   St. Peter's L 63-68 44%    
  Feb 24, 2019 284   @ Siena W 72-71 42%    
  Mar 01, 2019 220   @ Fairfield L 75-78 33%    
  Mar 03, 2019 110   Rider L 77-87 29%    
Projected Record 11.3 - 18.7 7.0 - 11.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.9 1.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 6.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 3.6 3.5 0.6 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.1 3.8 0.9 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.5 4.2 1.1 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.6 5.0 1.3 0.0 12.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.6 4.5 1.3 0.1 13.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.9 4.9 3.7 1.3 0.1 13.7 10th
11th 0.7 2.2 3.3 3.6 2.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 12.8 11th
Total 0.7 2.3 4.0 6.8 9.8 10.5 11.9 11.9 11.1 9.6 8.2 5.1 3.7 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 93.7% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 79.9% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 54.5% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1
13-5 20.4% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 50.0% 3.5% 46.5% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 48.2%
16-2 0.2% 37.9% 37.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.7% 30.2% 30.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.3% 16.1% 16.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
13-5 2.3% 8.3% 8.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.1
12-6 3.7% 6.7% 6.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.4
11-7 5.1% 4.1% 4.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.9
10-8 8.2% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.0
9-9 9.6% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.4
8-10 11.1% 1.7% 1.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 10.9
7-11 11.9% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 11.8
6-12 11.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.8
5-13 10.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.5
4-14 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.8
3-15 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.8
2-16 4.0% 4.0
1-17 2.3% 2.3
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%