Preseason Rankings
Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#268
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace80.1#13
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#204
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.7#321
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 3.2% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 27.9% 45.4% 21.0%
.500 or above in Conference 31.8% 44.0% 27.1%
Conference Champion 2.2% 3.4% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 20.2% 12.1% 23.3%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.6%
First Round1.6% 2.9% 1.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Home) - 28.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.10.0 - 0.1
Quad 1b0.0 - 0.40.0 - 0.6
Quad 20.2 - 1.90.2 - 2.4
Quad 31.7 - 6.61.9 - 9.1
Quad 410.8 - 9.312.6 - 18.4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2018 119   St. Bonaventure L 75-84 28%    
  Nov 14, 2018 67   @ Loyola Chicago L 68-82 6%    
  Nov 16, 2018 173   @ Wyoming L 83-88 24%    
  Nov 23, 2018 296   Grambling St. W 83-81 65%    
  Nov 24, 2018 318   St. Francis Brooklyn W 81-78 72%    
  Nov 30, 2018 160   @ St. Francis (PA) L 79-85 21%    
  Dec 03, 2018 167   @ Pittsburgh L 71-77 23%    
  Dec 09, 2018 316   New Hampshire W 75-72 70%    
  Dec 16, 2018 248   Cornell L 81-82 58%    
  Dec 19, 2018 281   @ Cleveland St. W 78-77 40%    
  Dec 22, 2018 216   @ Army L 80-83 32%    
  Dec 29, 2018 277   Norfolk St. W 80-79 61%    
  Dec 31, 2018 278   Albany W 76-75 61%    
  Jan 05, 2019 291   @ Manhattan W 74-73 45%    
  Jan 07, 2019 220   @ Fairfield L 80-82 34%    
  Jan 11, 2019 133   Iona L 80-88 32%    
  Jan 13, 2019 110   Rider L 82-92 30%    
  Jan 17, 2019 284   @ Siena W 76-75 43%    
  Jan 19, 2019 238   @ Quinnipiac L 78-80 36%    
  Jan 22, 2019 178   St. Peter's L 67-72 43%    
  Jan 26, 2019 183   Monmouth L 78-83 44%    
  Jan 30, 2019 162   Canisius L 77-83 40%    
  Feb 03, 2019 238   Quinnipiac L 78-80 55%    
  Feb 08, 2019 274   @ Marist W 83-82 40%    
  Feb 10, 2019 133   @ Iona L 80-88 17%    
  Feb 15, 2019 291   Manhattan W 74-73 64%    
  Feb 17, 2019 220   Fairfield L 80-82 51%    
  Feb 22, 2019 110   @ Rider L 82-92 16%    
  Feb 24, 2019 178   @ St. Peter's L 67-72 25%    
  Feb 27, 2019 162   @ Canisius L 77-83 23%    
  Mar 03, 2019 284   Siena W 76-75 62%    
Projected Record 12.6 - 18.4 7.0 - 11.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.2 1.9 0.7 0.1 5.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.8 2.5 0.7 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.7 3.0 0.6 0.1 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 4.0 3.6 0.9 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.4 3.8 1.0 0.1 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.8 4.5 1.5 0.0 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.8 4.1 1.4 0.0 12.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.9 4.9 3.8 1.2 0.1 13.6 10th
11th 0.6 2.3 3.9 3.9 2.3 0.5 0.0 13.5 11th
Total 0.6 2.3 4.6 7.1 9.3 10.6 11.3 11.8 10.5 9.2 7.6 5.9 4.1 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 96.5% 0.4    0.4 0.0
15-3 70.0% 0.4    0.3 0.0 0.0
14-4 39.9% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 19.6% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 49.1% 49.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 31.9% 31.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.4% 44.1% 44.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.6% 16.2% 16.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.3% 18.0% 18.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
13-5 2.6% 10.3% 10.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.3
12-6 4.1% 6.6% 6.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.8
11-7 5.9% 4.2% 4.2% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.7
10-8 7.6% 2.6% 2.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.4
9-9 9.2% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.0
8-10 10.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.4
7-11 11.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.8
6-12 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.3
5-13 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.6
4-14 9.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.3
3-15 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.1
2-16 4.6% 4.6
1-17 2.3% 2.3
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.9 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%