Preseason Rankings
Rider
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#110
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace80.9#9
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#96
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#146
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.2% 41.2% 27.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 2.9% 0.6%
Average Seed 13.4 12.6 13.8
.500 or above 88.3% 96.5% 86.0%
.500 or above in Conference 89.8% 94.8% 88.4%
Conference Champion 35.9% 47.9% 32.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.4% 1.0%
First Four2.2% 1.8% 2.3%
First Round29.4% 40.5% 26.2%
Second Round6.6% 11.9% 5.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.0% 4.1% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Florida (Away) - 22.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 0.90.1 - 0.9
Quad 1b0.3 - 1.00.4 - 1.9
Quad 20.9 - 1.61.3 - 3.5
Quad 33.8 - 3.45.0 - 6.9
Quad 414.8 - 3.319.8 - 10.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 55   @ Central Florida L 69-74 22%    
  Nov 19, 2018 345   Coppin St. W 84-66 97%    
  Nov 24, 2018 215   @ Wagner W 79-72 64%    
  Nov 28, 2018 11   @ West Virginia L 75-86 10%    
  Dec 08, 2018 156   @ Hofstra W 85-82 51%    
  Dec 12, 2018 277   Norfolk St. W 84-74 87%    
  Dec 15, 2018 233   Robert Morris W 81-73 83%    
  Dec 17, 2018 191   @ Washington St. W 84-79 58%    
  Dec 19, 2018 202   @ Drake W 82-76 60%    
  Dec 22, 2018 172   Northern Colorado W 84-80 64%    
  Dec 23, 2018 342   Cal St. Northridge W 84-66 94%    
  Dec 30, 2018 127   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 82-81 43%    
  Jan 03, 2019 220   @ Fairfield W 84-77 64%    
  Jan 05, 2019 238   Quinnipiac W 82-74 82%    
  Jan 11, 2019 162   @ Canisius W 82-78 51%    
  Jan 13, 2019 268   @ Niagara W 92-82 70%    
  Jan 19, 2019 291   Manhattan W 79-68 87%    
  Jan 25, 2019 133   @ Iona W 85-84 44%    
  Jan 27, 2019 274   Marist W 87-77 84%    
  Jan 31, 2019 178   St. Peter's W 71-67 73%    
  Feb 02, 2019 183   @ Monmouth W 83-78 55%    
  Feb 05, 2019 291   @ Manhattan W 79-68 74%    
  Feb 08, 2019 162   Canisius W 82-78 70%    
  Feb 10, 2019 284   Siena W 80-70 85%    
  Feb 12, 2019 238   @ Quinnipiac W 82-74 66%    
  Feb 15, 2019 183   Monmouth W 83-78 74%    
  Feb 17, 2019 178   @ St. Peter's W 71-67 54%    
  Feb 22, 2019 268   Niagara W 92-82 84%    
  Mar 01, 2019 133   Iona W 85-84 64%    
  Mar 03, 2019 274   @ Marist W 87-77 71%    
Projected Record 19.8 - 10.2 12.5 - 5.5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 3.0 6.5 9.3 9.2 5.4 1.8 35.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 4.4 6.9 5.4 2.2 0.5 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.7 5.1 3.0 0.7 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.4 1.2 0.1 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.2 0.8 0.1 4.8 6th
7th 0.3 0.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 3.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.8 2.6 4.1 5.7 8.1 9.8 11.9 13.1 12.6 11.6 9.7 5.4 1.8 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
17-1 100.0% 5.4    5.3 0.2
16-2 94.9% 9.2    8.1 1.1 0.0
15-3 80.2% 9.3    6.9 2.2 0.1
14-4 52.0% 6.5    3.3 2.7 0.5 0.0
13-5 22.6% 3.0    0.9 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 35.9% 35.9 26.4 7.6 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.8% 83.5% 76.2% 7.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 30.6%
17-1 5.4% 71.5% 65.9% 5.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.5 16.5%
16-2 9.7% 59.7% 57.8% 1.9% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.9 4.4%
15-3 11.6% 49.9% 49.2% 0.7% 13.5 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.8 1.8 0.8 0.2 5.8 1.5%
14-4 12.6% 34.3% 34.2% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.3 8.3 0.2%
13-5 13.1% 26.7% 26.7% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.6 9.6
12-6 11.9% 20.4% 20.4% 14.8 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.7 9.5
11-7 9.8% 14.1% 14.1% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 8.4
10-8 8.1% 10.5% 10.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 7.3
9-9 5.7% 8.0% 8.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 5.3
8-10 4.1% 3.1% 3.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.0
7-11 2.6% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.5
6-12 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-13 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 30.2% 29.5% 0.7% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.7 4.8 6.9 7.1 5.0 3.5 69.8 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.5 3.1 5.2 61.5 2.1 28.1