Preseason Rankings
Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#156
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.1#123
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#87
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#273
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.9% 10.5% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 0.9% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.0 13.0 14.2
.500 or above 71.7% 74.3% 42.3%
.500 or above in Conference 68.2% 70.1% 45.3%
Conference Champion 10.7% 11.3% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 4.0% 8.9%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
First Round9.7% 10.2% 3.5%
Second Round1.7% 1.8% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Home) - 92.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 1.00.1 - 1.0
Quad 1b0.2 - 1.10.3 - 2.1
Quad 20.8 - 2.31.0 - 4.4
Quad 33.6 - 4.54.6 - 8.9
Quad 412.5 - 4.017.1 - 12.9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 331   Mount St. Mary's W 77-65 92%    
  Nov 11, 2018 99   @ Marshall L 83-87 25%    
  Nov 14, 2018 347   N.C. A&T W 85-70 95%    
  Nov 16, 2018 32   @ Maryland L 70-81 11%    
  Nov 21, 2018 143   Cal St. Fullerton L 76-77 58%    
  Nov 24, 2018 127   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 77-79 33%    
  Nov 28, 2018 284   Siena W 76-69 81%    
  Dec 01, 2018 338   @ Kennesaw St. W 81-68 81%    
  Dec 05, 2018 183   Monmouth W 78-76 65%    
  Dec 08, 2018 110   Rider L 82-85 49%    
  Dec 10, 2018 291   @ Manhattan W 75-67 65%    
  Dec 19, 2018 222   @ Stony Brook W 75-71 55%    
  Dec 28, 2018 239   Delaware W 76-71 74%    
  Dec 30, 2018 280   Drexel W 81-74 79%    
  Jan 05, 2019 70   Northeastern L 72-79 36%    
  Jan 10, 2019 164   @ William & Mary W 82-81 42%    
  Jan 12, 2019 231   @ Elon W 78-73 57%    
  Jan 17, 2019 197   UNC Wilmington W 83-80 68%    
  Jan 19, 2019 112   College of Charleston L 70-73 50%    
  Jan 24, 2019 176   @ James Madison W 76-75 44%    
  Jan 26, 2019 237   @ Towson W 76-71 56%    
  Feb 02, 2019 70   @ Northeastern L 72-79 20%    
  Feb 07, 2019 231   Elon W 78-73 74%    
  Feb 09, 2019 164   William & Mary W 82-81 61%    
  Feb 14, 2019 112   @ College of Charleston L 70-73 31%    
  Feb 16, 2019 197   @ UNC Wilmington W 83-80 49%    
  Feb 21, 2019 237   Towson W 76-71 75%    
  Feb 23, 2019 176   James Madison W 76-75 64%    
  Feb 28, 2019 280   @ Drexel W 81-74 63%    
  Mar 02, 2019 239   @ Delaware W 76-71 57%    
Projected Record 17.1 - 12.9 10.0 - 8.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.6 2.9 2.3 0.8 0.2 10.7 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 3.9 4.9 3.3 1.3 0.2 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.2 5.3 5.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.8 4.1 1.2 0.1 14.6 4th
5th 0.5 2.6 5.2 3.1 0.8 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.1 4.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.3 10th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.6 3.8 6.1 8.1 9.3 11.4 11.7 11.6 10.5 8.8 6.3 4.2 2.5 0.8 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 90.9% 2.3    1.8 0.5 0.0
15-3 69.2% 2.9    1.9 1.0 0.1
14-4 41.5% 2.6    1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 16.6% 1.5    0.4 0.6 0.4 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.7% 10.7 6.5 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 84.8% 69.5% 15.2% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0%
17-1 0.8% 69.9% 46.7% 23.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 43.5%
16-2 2.5% 49.7% 39.8% 9.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3 16.4%
15-3 4.2% 32.3% 29.6% 2.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.9 3.9%
14-4 6.3% 24.8% 23.3% 1.6% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.8 2.0%
13-5 8.8% 16.6% 16.3% 0.3% 13.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 7.4 0.4%
12-6 10.5% 13.0% 13.0% 14.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 9.2
11-7 11.6% 7.0% 7.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 10.8
10-8 11.7% 5.9% 5.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 11.0
9-9 11.4% 3.3% 3.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 11.0
8-10 9.3% 1.1% 1.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.2
7-11 8.1% 1.6% 1.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.0
6-12 6.1% 0.1% 0.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 6.0
5-13 3.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.8
4-14 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.6
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 9.9% 9.2% 0.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.3 1.9 1.6 0.8 90.1 0.8%