IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Towson
Colonial Athletic
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.3	#237
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.3	#198
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.9	#283

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.4	#181

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.9%	1.2%	1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.8	13.0	14.8

.500 or above	33.2%	64.6%	33.0%
.500 or above in Conference	31.5%	50.3%	31.4%
Conference Champion	1.9%	8.7%	1.9%
Last Place in Conference	20.0%	10.7%	20.0%

First Four	0.5%	0.1%	0.5%
First Round	1.7%	1.2%	1.7%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Virginia (Away) - 0.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 1.3	0.0 - 1.3
Quad 1b	0.1 - 0.8	0.1 - 2.1
Quad 2	0.5 - 2.6	0.5 - 4.7
Quad 3	3.1 - 6.9	3.6 - 11.6
Quad 4	8.9 - 5.9	12.5 - 17.5

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	2	@ Virginia	L	48-71	1%
Nov 16, 2018	234	Pepperdine	L	71-72	50%
Nov 17, 2018	266	Florida Atlantic	W	70-68	56%
Nov 18, 2018	199	North Dakota St.	L	67-69	42%
Nov 25, 2018	300	Loyola Maryland	W	70-67	71%
Nov 30, 2018	124	Vermont	L	63-70	35%
Dec 05, 2018	208	@ George Washington	L	66-67	35%
Dec 08, 2018	339	Morgan St.	W	74-66	77%
Dec 11, 2018	214	@ Maryland Baltimore Co.	L	68-69	37%
Dec 21, 2018	195	Tulane	L	70-72	41%
Dec 22, 2018	166	La Salle	L	69-73	37%
Dec 28, 2018	231	@ Elon	L	69-70	39%
Dec 30, 2018	164	@ William & Mary	L	73-77	28%
Jan 03, 2019	112	College of Charleston	L	62-70	34%
Jan 05, 2019	197	UNC Wilmington	L	74-76	53%
Jan 09, 2019	248	Cornell	W	73-72	62%
Jan 12, 2019	176	@ James Madison	L	67-71	29%
Jan 17, 2019	280	@ Drexel	W	72-70	47%
Jan 19, 2019	239	@ Delaware	W	68-67	39%
Jan 24, 2019	70	Northeastern	L	64-76	23%
Jan 26, 2019	156	Hofstra	L	71-76	44%
Jan 31, 2019	197	@ UNC Wilmington	L	74-76	34%
Feb 02, 2019	112	@ College of Charleston	L	62-70	18%
Feb 09, 2019	176	James Madison	L	67-71	49%
Feb 14, 2019	239	Delaware	W	68-67	60%
Feb 16, 2019	280	Drexel	W	72-70	66%
Feb 21, 2019	156	@ Hofstra	L	71-76	25%
Feb 23, 2019	70	@ Northeastern	L	64-76	11%
Feb 28, 2019	164	William & Mary	L	73-77	46%
Mar 02, 2019	231	Elon	L	69-70	59%
Projected Record						12.5 - 17.5	7.0 - 11.0

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0		1.9	1st
2nd											0.2	0.8	1.5	1.5	0.7	0.1	0.0				4.9	2nd
3rd										0.2	1.2	2.5	1.7	0.5	0.1	0.0					6.3	3rd
4th								0.0	0.4	2.2	3.6	2.2	0.4	0.0							8.8	4th
5th							0.0	0.5	3.3	4.4	2.2	0.3	0.0								10.8	5th
6th						0.0	0.7	3.8	5.2	2.4	0.4	0.0									12.5	6th
7th					0.1	1.0	3.9	5.3	2.5	0.2											12.9	7th
8th			0.0	0.2	1.8	4.6	5.3	2.1	0.3	0.0											14.2	8th
9th		0.0	0.5	2.7	4.8	4.3	1.8	0.2													14.2	9th
10th	0.7	2.0	3.4	3.8	2.6	0.9	0.1														13.5	10th

Total	0.7	2.0	3.9	6.7	9.3	10.7	11.8	11.9	11.6	9.5	7.5	6.0	3.8	2.4	1.4	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
16-2	94.1%	0.2		0.2	0.0
15-3	78.8%	0.5		0.3	0.2	0.0
14-4	43.1%	0.6		0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-5	13.5%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-6	4.4%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0			0.0			0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.9%	1.9		1.2	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		100.0%	100.0%		8.1									0.0			0.0
17-1	0.1%		48.4%	46.8%	1.6%	11.8						0.0					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		3.0%
16-2	0.3%		37.8%	32.6%	5.1%	13.6												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0		0.2		7.6%
15-3	0.6%		23.4%	23.4%		13.5												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0		0.5
14-4	1.4%		18.8%	18.7%	0.1%	13.9													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	1.1		0.1%
13-5	2.4%		6.4%	6.3%	0.0%	14.2													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	2.2		0.0%
12-6	3.8%		5.8%	5.8%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	3.6
11-7	6.0%		5.6%	5.6%		15.1													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	5.6
10-8	7.5%		2.5%	2.5%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	7.3
9-9	9.5%		1.6%	1.6%		15.8																0.0	0.1	9.3
8-10	11.6%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																0.0	0.1	11.5
7-11	11.9%		1.0%	1.0%		15.9																0.0	0.1	11.8
6-12	11.8%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	11.8
5-13	10.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.7
4-14	9.3%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	9.2
3-15	6.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	6.7
2-16	3.9%																							3.9
1-17	2.0%																							2.0
0-18	0.7%																							0.7

Total	100%		1.9%	1.9%	0.0%	14.8						0.0			0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.7	98.1		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%