Preseason Rankings
Siena
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#284
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.5#294
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#286
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#257
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 4.8% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.5 15.3
.500 or above 17.3% 45.9% 16.2%
.500 or above in Conference 29.5% 50.7% 28.7%
Conference Champion 1.7% 5.6% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 20.9% 10.2% 21.3%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.5%
First Round1.2% 4.8% 1.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Providence (Away) - 3.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.40.0 - 0.4
Quad 1b0.0 - 0.80.0 - 1.2
Quad 20.2 - 2.30.3 - 3.5
Quad 31.8 - 7.32.0 - 10.8
Quad 48.9 - 9.211.0 - 20.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 47   @ Providence L 59-75 4%    
  Nov 08, 2018 208   @ George Washington L 64-68 26%    
  Nov 16, 2018 277   Norfolk St. L 69-70 49%    
  Nov 18, 2018 206   Holy Cross L 61-65 36%    
  Nov 21, 2018 185   Lehigh L 70-75 42%    
  Nov 24, 2018 209   Colgate L 65-69 48%    
  Nov 28, 2018 156   @ Hofstra L 69-76 19%    
  Dec 01, 2018 77   Harvard L 59-72 18%    
  Dec 05, 2018 119   @ St. Bonaventure L 64-74 13%    
  Dec 08, 2018 233   @ Robert Morris L 66-68 32%    
  Dec 18, 2018 112   College of Charleston L 60-70 27%    
  Dec 22, 2018 206   @ Holy Cross L 61-65 28%    
  Dec 29, 2018 317   Cal Poly W 68-65 69%    
  Jan 03, 2019 178   @ St. Peter's L 57-63 24%    
  Jan 05, 2019 162   Canisius L 66-73 38%    
  Jan 11, 2019 274   @ Marist L 71-72 38%    
  Jan 14, 2019 183   Monmouth L 67-72 42%    
  Jan 17, 2019 268   Niagara L 75-76 57%    
  Jan 24, 2019 220   @ Fairfield L 68-71 31%    
  Jan 26, 2019 291   Manhattan W 65-64 63%    
  Jan 31, 2019 183   @ Monmouth L 67-72 24%    
  Feb 02, 2019 133   @ Iona L 68-77 16%    
  Feb 04, 2019 220   Fairfield L 68-71 50%    
  Feb 08, 2019 291   @ Manhattan W 65-64 42%    
  Feb 10, 2019 110   @ Rider L 70-80 15%    
  Feb 13, 2019 133   Iona L 68-77 32%    
  Feb 17, 2019 238   Quinnipiac L 67-69 54%    
  Feb 19, 2019 178   St. Peter's L 57-63 41%    
  Feb 24, 2019 274   Marist L 71-72 58%    
  Mar 01, 2019 162   @ Canisius L 66-73 21%    
  Mar 03, 2019 268   @ Niagara L 75-76 38%    
Projected Record 11.0 - 20.0 6.8 - 11.2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 1.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 2.8 2.1 0.7 0.1 6.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.4 2.9 0.6 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 1.1 3.8 3.4 0.7 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.3 4.2 1.0 0.0 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.0 5.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 13.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.6 4.4 1.5 0.1 13.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.1 5.1 4.0 1.2 0.1 14.3 10th
11th 0.7 2.2 4.2 3.9 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 14.1 11th
Total 0.7 2.2 4.9 7.2 9.7 10.9 12.0 11.9 10.9 9.0 7.2 5.0 3.9 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 83.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 73.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 47.4% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.1
13-5 17.0% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 63.4% 47.5% 15.8% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.2%
16-2 0.2% 12.1% 12.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.6% 16.9% 16.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.4% 13.6% 13.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2
13-5 2.0% 7.2% 7.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.9
12-6 3.9% 7.4% 7.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.6
11-7 5.0% 4.4% 4.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.8
10-8 7.2% 2.3% 2.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.1
9-9 9.0% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.9
8-10 10.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.8
7-11 11.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.8
6-12 12.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 12.0
5-13 10.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.9
4-14 9.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.7
3-15 7.2% 7.2
2-16 4.9% 4.9
1-17 2.2% 2.2
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%