IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.5	#220
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	73.9	#62
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.9	#257

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.5	#183

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.6%	9.4%	4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.8	13.7	14.9

.500 or above	43.6%	73.7%	42.5%
.500 or above in Conference	50.9%	71.6%	50.1%
Conference Champion	6.2%	15.1%	5.9%
Last Place in Conference	9.5%	1.4%	9.8%

First Four	1.0%	0.5%	1.1%
First Round	4.2%	9.4%	4.0%
Second Round	0.3%	1.2%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Purdue (Away) - 3.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.9	0.0 - 0.9
Quad 1b	0.0 - 0.6	0.1 - 1.5
Quad 2	0.3 - 1.7	0.3 - 3.2
Quad 3	2.0 - 5.4	2.4 - 8.7
Quad 4	11.4 - 7.6	13.7 - 16.3

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	27	@ Purdue	L	65-81	4%
Nov 10, 2018	171	@ Bucknell	L	75-78	28%
Nov 13, 2018	225	LIU Brooklyn	W	78-77	61%
Nov 17, 2018	215	Wagner	L	70-71	60%
Nov 23, 2018	333	Longwood	W	77-69	77%
Nov 24, 2018	244	@ Seattle	W	72-71	44%
Nov 25, 2018	200	Denver	L	71-72	46%
Dec 01, 2018	216	@ Army	L	75-76	38%
Dec 06, 2018	245	Oakland	W	75-74	64%
Dec 09, 2018	102	@ Old Dominion	L	63-71	19%
Dec 16, 2018	78	@ Boston College	L	71-81	13%
Dec 22, 2018	316	@ New Hampshire	W	71-65	59%
Jan 03, 2019	110	Rider	L	77-84	36%
Jan 05, 2019	133	@ Iona	L	75-81	23%
Jan 07, 2019	268	Niagara	W	82-80	66%
Jan 10, 2019	178	St. Peter's	L	63-66	51%
Jan 13, 2019	238	@ Quinnipiac	W	73-72	43%
Jan 17, 2019	183	@ Monmouth	L	73-75	32%
Jan 19, 2019	162	Canisius	L	72-76	49%
Jan 24, 2019	284	Siena	W	71-68	69%
Jan 27, 2019	133	Iona	L	75-81	41%
Jan 31, 2019	291	@ Manhattan	W	70-66	53%
Feb 02, 2019	274	@ Marist	W	78-75	49%
Feb 04, 2019	284	@ Siena	W	71-68	50%
Feb 09, 2019	183	Monmouth	L	73-75	52%
Feb 15, 2019	162	@ Canisius	L	72-76	29%
Feb 17, 2019	268	@ Niagara	W	82-80	49%
Feb 24, 2019	291	Manhattan	W	70-66	71%
Mar 01, 2019	274	Marist	W	78-75	67%
Mar 03, 2019	178	@ St. Peter's	L	63-66	32%
Projected Record						13.7 - 16.3	8.6 - 9.4

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.3	1.0	1.9	1.4	0.9	0.4	0.1		6.2	1st
2nd											0.1	0.6	2.0	2.9	1.9	0.5	0.1				8.1	2nd
3rd										0.0	1.0	3.4	3.6	1.6	0.2	0.0					9.9	3rd
4th									0.1	1.1	3.8	3.9	1.3	0.1	0.0						10.2	4th
5th								0.0	1.0	4.4	3.9	1.1	0.1	0.0							10.6	5th
6th						0.0	0.1	1.1	4.1	4.3	1.2	0.1									10.8	6th
7th						0.0	1.0	3.8	4.4	1.3	0.0										10.6	7th
8th				0.0	0.1	0.9	3.5	4.0	1.4	0.1											9.9	8th
9th			0.0	0.1	1.3	3.4	3.9	1.1	0.1												9.9	9th
10th		0.0	0.4	1.4	2.6	2.5	0.9	0.1													7.9	10th
11th	0.2	0.6	1.5	1.8	1.4	0.4	0.0														5.9	11th

Total	0.2	0.6	1.8	3.4	5.3	7.3	9.4	10.1	11.0	11.2	10.1	9.1	7.2	5.7	4.0	2.0	1.1	0.4	0.1			Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.4		0.4	0.0
16-2	86.9%	0.9		0.7	0.2	0.0
15-3	73.7%	1.4		0.9	0.4	0.0
14-4	48.4%	1.9		0.9	0.8	0.2	0.0
13-5	18.1%	1.0		0.2	0.4	0.3	0.0	0.0
12-6	4.0%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.6%	0.1			0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	6.2%	6.2		3.4	2.0	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		38.0%	26.2%	11.8%	12.3										0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1		16.0%
17-1	0.4%		60.7%	57.4%	3.4%	12.4											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.2		7.9%
16-2	1.1%		33.1%	31.8%	1.3%	13.4												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1		0.7		1.9%
15-3	2.0%		24.5%	24.5%		14.2													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	1.5
14-4	4.0%		18.7%	18.7%		14.6													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	3.2
13-5	5.7%		12.3%	12.3%		14.7													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	5.0
12-6	7.2%		8.5%	8.5%		15.2														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	6.6
11-7	9.1%		6.5%	6.5%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	8.5
10-8	10.1%		3.7%	3.7%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.3	9.7
9-9	11.2%		1.6%	1.6%		15.8																0.0	0.2	11.1
8-10	11.0%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																0.0	0.1	10.9
7-11	10.1%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																0.0	0.1	10.0
6-12	9.4%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	9.3
5-13	7.3%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	7.3
4-14	5.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	5.3
3-15	3.4%																							3.4
2-16	1.8%																							1.8
1-17	0.6%																							0.6
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		4.6%	4.6%	0.0%	14.8										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.5	0.7	1.5	1.7	95.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%