Preseason Rankings
USC
Pac-12
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.9#58
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.9#208
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#44
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#85
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.5% 5.0% 0.7%
Top 4 Seed 4.8% 5.0% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 9.6% 5.0% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.4% 37.8% 15.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.7% 31.1% 10.4%
Average Seed 8.4 8.4 10.0
.500 or above 82.4% 84.3% 56.2%
.500 or above in Conference 72.6% 74.0% 53.0%
Conference Champion 11.8% 12.3% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.8% 7.0%
First Four6.2% 6.4% 3.6%
First Round33.0% 34.4% 13.9%
Second Round17.3% 18.2% 4.7%
Sweet Sixteen7.0% 7.4% 1.2%
Elite Eight2.7% 2.9% 0.4%
Final Four1.1% 1.1% 0.4%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Home) - 93.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.7 - 2.70.7 - 2.7
Quad 1b1.3 - 2.42.0 - 5.1
Quad 23.6 - 3.35.6 - 8.4
Quad 36.5 - 2.312.1 - 10.7
Quad 47.6 - 0.619.7 - 11.3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 233   Robert Morris W 77-64 93%    
  Nov 11, 2018 83   Vanderbilt W 74-71 70%    
  Nov 14, 2018 337   Stetson W 85-64 99%    
  Nov 19, 2018 29   Texas Tech L 69-72 41%    
  Nov 20, 2018 190   Missouri St. W 75-65 82%    
  Nov 25, 2018 204   Cal St. Bakersfield W 73-62 90%    
  Nov 28, 2018 189   Long Beach St. W 82-72 88%    
  Dec 01, 2018 7   Nevada L 74-82 34%    
  Dec 07, 2018 28   TCU L 74-77 40%    
  Dec 15, 2018 53   @ Oklahoma L 81-82 40%    
  Dec 18, 2018 217   @ Santa Clara W 75-63 78%    
  Dec 21, 2018 295   Southern Utah W 85-69 95%    
  Dec 30, 2018 131   UC Davis W 73-67 78%    
  Jan 03, 2019 198   California W 77-66 89%    
  Jan 06, 2019 108   Stanford W 77-72 76%    
  Jan 10, 2019 82   @ Oregon St. W 72-69 49%    
  Jan 13, 2019 17   @ Oregon L 70-75 27%    
  Jan 19, 2019 50   UCLA L 77-78 57%    
  Jan 24, 2019 66   Arizona W 74-73 62%    
  Jan 26, 2019 43   Arizona St. L 78-79 56%    
  Jan 30, 2019 42   @ Washington L 74-75 36%    
  Feb 02, 2019 191   @ Washington St. W 80-70 73%    
  Feb 06, 2019 87   Utah W 71-68 69%    
  Feb 09, 2019 84   Colorado W 73-70 69%    
  Feb 13, 2019 108   @ Stanford W 77-72 57%    
  Feb 16, 2019 198   @ California W 77-66 75%    
  Feb 21, 2019 17   Oregon L 70-75 45%    
  Feb 23, 2019 82   Oregon St. W 72-69 69%    
  Feb 28, 2019 50   @ UCLA L 77-78 38%    
  Mar 07, 2019 87   @ Utah W 71-68 50%    
  Mar 09, 2019 84   @ Colorado W 73-70 49%    
Projected Record 19.7 - 11.3 10.4 - 7.6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.5 3.9 2.6 1.1 0.4 11.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.0 3.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 13.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.2 3.7 0.8 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.2 3.0 0.8 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.1 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.6 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.2 2.8 0.5 0.1 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 2.4 0.6 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 12th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.1 4.9 6.9 9.1 10.5 11.5 11.5 11.2 10.8 7.3 5.4 3.0 1.1 0.4 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 97.7% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 86.1% 2.6    2.2 0.4 0.0
15-3 72.0% 3.9    2.4 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 34.1% 2.5    1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0
13-5 11.3% 1.2    0.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.8% 11.8 7.1 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 52.2% 47.8% 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.1% 100.0% 37.2% 62.8% 3.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.0% 96.8% 25.2% 71.7% 4.5 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 95.7%
15-3 5.4% 93.9% 20.5% 73.3% 6.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 92.3%
14-4 7.3% 86.6% 19.9% 66.7% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 83.3%
13-5 10.8% 71.2% 14.1% 57.2% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 3.1 66.5%
12-6 11.2% 52.1% 11.7% 40.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.2 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.4 45.7%
11-7 11.5% 32.0% 8.4% 23.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.8 25.8%
10-8 11.5% 15.3% 4.8% 10.5% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7 11.0%
9-9 10.5% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 12.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.5 3.2%
8-10 9.1% 4.1% 3.5% 0.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.7 0.6%
7-11 6.9% 2.5% 2.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8
6-12 4.9% 1.3% 1.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8
5-13 3.1% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
4-14 1.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
2-16 0.4% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 36.4% 9.5% 26.8% 8.4 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.4 4.2 5.1 6.5 3.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 63.6 29.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 79.2 2.7 18.1