Preseason Rankings
Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.0#83
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.9#282
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#63
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#128
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 1.8% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 1.6% 1.8% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 3.9% 1.8% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.9% 19.8% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.4% 18.2% 6.2%
Average Seed 8.5 8.4 9.7
.500 or above 42.6% 46.8% 19.0%
.500 or above in Conference 23.1% 25.1% 11.7%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 20.4% 18.5% 31.0%
First Four2.9% 3.1% 1.6%
First Round16.4% 18.1% 6.6%
Second Round8.0% 8.8% 3.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.8% 3.1% 1.0%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.2% 0.2%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Winthrop (Home) - 84.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.1 - 7.11.1 - 7.1
Quad 1b1.5 - 3.62.7 - 10.7
Quad 23.1 - 3.65.8 - 14.4
Quad 33.2 - 1.39.0 - 15.7
Quad 45.8 - 0.514.8 - 16.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 194   Winthrop W 79-71 85%    
  Nov 11, 2018 58   @ USC L 71-74 30%    
  Nov 16, 2018 346   Alcorn St. W 80-59 98%    
  Nov 19, 2018 155   Liberty W 69-64 79%    
  Nov 23, 2018 159   Kent St. W 75-69 78%    
  Nov 27, 2018 353   Savannah St. W 96-72 99%    
  Dec 01, 2018 38   North Carolina St. L 75-80 34%    
  Dec 05, 2018 157   Middle Tennessee W 70-65 77%    
  Dec 17, 2018 43   Arizona St. L 75-79 46%    
  Dec 22, 2018 14   @ Kansas St. L 64-73 16%    
  Dec 29, 2018 259   Tennessee St. W 71-59 90%    
  Dec 31, 2018 294   UNC Asheville W 77-64 92%    
  Jan 05, 2019 118   Mississippi W 76-73 69%    
  Jan 09, 2019 80   @ Georgia L 65-66 40%    
  Jan 12, 2019 3   @ Kentucky L 68-80 10%    
  Jan 16, 2019 61   South Carolina L 68-71 51%    
  Jan 19, 2019 21   Mississippi St. L 67-74 36%    
  Jan 23, 2019 9   Tennessee L 64-74 27%    
  Jan 26, 2019 53   @ Oklahoma L 78-81 30%    
  Jan 29, 2019 3   Kentucky L 68-80 22%    
  Feb 02, 2019 51   @ Missouri L 66-70 29%    
  Feb 05, 2019 94   @ Arkansas W 74-73 43%    
  Feb 09, 2019 39   Alabama L 69-73 45%    
  Feb 13, 2019 16   @ Florida L 66-74 19%    
  Feb 16, 2019 13   Auburn L 72-81 33%    
  Feb 19, 2019 9   @ Tennessee L 64-74 14%    
  Feb 23, 2019 39   @ Alabama L 69-73 27%    
  Feb 27, 2019 16   Florida L 66-74 35%    
  Mar 02, 2019 64   @ Texas A&M L 71-73 34%    
  Mar 06, 2019 94   Arkansas W 74-73 63%    
  Mar 09, 2019 46   @ LSU L 72-76 29%    
Projected Record 14.8 - 16.2 6.3 - 11.7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.0 6th
7th 0.3 2.0 3.1 0.8 0.1 6.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 3.7 2.0 0.2 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.4 3.9 3.0 0.3 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 4.2 4.5 0.6 0.0 10.3 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 4.0 4.8 1.3 0.1 11.2 11th
12th 0.1 1.2 4.3 5.1 1.8 0.1 12.6 12th
13th 0.3 2.3 4.6 4.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 13.8 13th
14th 0.8 2.9 4.0 3.6 1.4 0.1 0.0 12.8 14th
Total 0.8 3.2 6.4 9.5 11.2 11.9 12.6 11.7 9.6 8.1 5.7 4.0 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 93.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-3 64.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 38.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.0% 100.0% 49.2% 50.8% 1.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 1.9% 98.1% 2.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.2% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 3.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.8% 99.9% 10.8% 89.1% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 1.5% 98.2% 10.3% 87.9% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.0%
12-6 2.5% 97.4% 5.6% 91.7% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.2%
11-7 4.0% 85.3% 4.5% 80.8% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.6 84.6%
10-8 5.7% 67.6% 3.3% 64.3% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9 66.5%
9-9 8.1% 38.7% 3.0% 35.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.9 36.8%
8-10 9.6% 14.8% 2.8% 12.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 12.3%
7-11 11.7% 3.7% 1.3% 2.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3 2.4%
6-12 12.6% 1.8% 1.4% 0.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.3 0.5%
5-13 11.9% 0.7% 0.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.8
4-14 11.2% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.2
3-15 9.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.4
2-16 6.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.3
1-17 3.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.2
0-18 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 17.9% 1.9% 16.1% 8.5 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.2 2.0 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 82.1 16.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0