Preseason Rankings
Liberty
Atlantic Sun
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#155
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace59.9#346
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#152
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#163
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.4% 33.3% 20.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 14.2 13.8 14.6
.500 or above 85.1% 93.6% 79.6%
.500 or above in Conference 90.8% 94.3% 88.6%
Conference Champion 30.9% 38.5% 25.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.3% 1.0%
First Four2.4% 2.1% 2.6%
First Round24.3% 32.4% 19.0%
Second Round2.9% 4.7% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Away) - 39.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.60.0 - 0.6
Quad 1b0.2 - 1.30.2 - 1.9
Quad 20.9 - 2.51.1 - 4.4
Quad 33.0 - 3.44.1 - 7.8
Quad 413.5 - 2.617.5 - 10.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 16, 2018 159   @ Kent St. W 68-67 39%    
  Nov 19, 2018 83   @ Vanderbilt L 64-69 21%    
  Nov 23, 2018 346   Alcorn St. W 73-58 94%    
  Nov 25, 2018 353   Savannah St. W 87-69 97%    
  Nov 28, 2018 260   @ Navy W 65-59 61%    
  Dec 01, 2018 85   Georgia St. L 64-69 42%    
  Dec 03, 2018 69   @ Georgetown L 66-73 19%    
  Dec 11, 2018 348   South Carolina St. W 77-61 95%    
  Dec 18, 2018 39   Alabama L 61-71 19%    
  Dec 21, 2018 325   Alabama St. W 73-62 83%    
  Dec 22, 2018 188   Austin Peay W 70-68 56%    
  Dec 29, 2018 50   @ UCLA L 67-76 15%    
  Jan 05, 2019 179   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 71-69 44%    
  Jan 09, 2019 337   @ Stetson W 75-62 80%    
  Jan 12, 2019 289   Jacksonville W 71-63 81%    
  Jan 16, 2019 338   @ Kennesaw St. W 72-59 81%    
  Jan 19, 2019 213   North Florida W 78-74 71%    
  Jan 21, 2019 340   North Alabama W 71-57 92%    
  Jan 27, 2019 289   @ Jacksonville W 71-63 65%    
  Jan 29, 2019 136   Lipscomb L 72-74 55%    
  Feb 02, 2019 228   NJIT W 67-63 74%    
  Feb 05, 2019 337   Stetson W 75-62 91%    
  Feb 09, 2019 179   Florida Gulf Coast W 71-69 64%    
  Feb 13, 2019 136   @ Lipscomb L 72-74 35%    
  Feb 16, 2019 340   @ North Alabama W 71-57 81%    
  Feb 23, 2019 213   @ North Florida W 78-74 53%    
  Feb 26, 2019 338   Kennesaw St. W 72-59 91%    
  Mar 01, 2019 228   @ NJIT W 67-63 55%    
Projected Record 17.5 - 10.5 11.1 - 4.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 3.6 8.8 9.3 5.8 2.2 30.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.5 6.7 8.7 5.4 1.2 23.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.2 6.2 6.7 2.5 0.2 18.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.2 3.4 0.8 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.7 1.8 0.3 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.0 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.3 4.4 7.0 9.5 11.5 15.3 14.8 14.4 10.5 5.8 2.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.2    2.2
15-1 100.0% 5.8    5.4 0.4
14-2 88.9% 9.3    7.1 2.1 0.0
13-3 61.4% 8.8    4.6 3.6 0.6 0.0
12-4 24.3% 3.6    1.0 1.8 0.7 0.1
11-5 7.2% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 30.9% 30.9 20.6 8.3 1.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.2% 80.1% 77.8% 2.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 10.3%
15-1 5.8% 66.2% 65.1% 1.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.0 3.2%
14-2 10.5% 50.0% 49.7% 0.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.1 1.2 0.2 5.2 0.6%
13-3 14.4% 36.8% 36.8% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.9 0.7 9.1 0.0%
12-4 14.8% 26.7% 26.7% 14.8 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.6 1.0 10.9
11-5 15.3% 17.7% 17.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 12.6
10-6 11.5% 12.8% 12.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 10.0
9-7 9.5% 7.3% 7.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 8.8
8-8 7.0% 4.6% 4.6% 15.9 0.0 0.3 6.6
7-9 4.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 4.3
6-10 2.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 2.3
5-11 1.3% 1.3
4-12 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-13 0.3% 0.3
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 25.4% 25.3% 0.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.9 4.2 6.4 6.8 5.1 74.6 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.1 96.4 3.6