Preseason Rankings
Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.0#289
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.4#142
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#278
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#285
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 2.9% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.9
.500 or above 36.4% 38.6% 14.7%
.500 or above in Conference 45.9% 47.4% 30.8%
Conference Champion 3.6% 3.8% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 8.4% 7.8% 14.0%
First Four1.4% 1.5% 0.6%
First Round1.9% 2.1% 0.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida A&M (Home) - 90.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.80.0 - 0.8
Quad 1b0.1 - 1.30.1 - 2.0
Quad 20.3 - 2.70.4 - 4.7
Quad 31.6 - 4.92.0 - 9.6
Quad 411.0 - 6.313.1 - 15.9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 352   Florida A&M W 75-64 91%    
  Nov 10, 2018 326   @ Northern Arizona W 72-68 53%    
  Nov 12, 2018 114   @ Grand Canyon L 66-76 12%    
  Nov 16, 2018 308   Southeast Missouri St. W 76-74 57%    
  Nov 17, 2018 150   @ South Alabama L 69-77 16%    
  Nov 18, 2018 314   Chattanooga W 69-67 58%    
  Nov 24, 2018 307   @ Western Carolina W 73-72 44%    
  Dec 01, 2018 348   South Carolina St. W 79-70 84%    
  Dec 04, 2018 319   @ Presbyterian W 70-67 49%    
  Dec 15, 2018 299   @ Bethune-Cookman W 81-80 42%    
  Dec 20, 2018 49   @ Notre Dame L 62-79 4%    
  Dec 22, 2018 25   @ Indiana L 62-82 3%    
  Dec 30, 2018 319   Presbyterian W 70-67 68%    
  Jan 05, 2019 136   Lipscomb L 75-84 31%    
  Jan 09, 2019 338   @ Kennesaw St. W 74-69 58%    
  Jan 12, 2019 155   @ Liberty L 63-71 19%    
  Jan 16, 2019 340   North Alabama W 72-66 78%    
  Jan 19, 2019 228   @ NJIT L 69-72 31%    
  Jan 24, 2019 213   @ North Florida L 81-85 29%    
  Jan 27, 2019 155   Liberty L 63-71 35%    
  Jan 30, 2019 337   Stetson W 76-71 76%    
  Feb 02, 2019 179   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 73-79 23%    
  Feb 06, 2019 338   Kennesaw St. W 74-69 76%    
  Feb 09, 2019 136   @ Lipscomb L 75-84 15%    
  Feb 13, 2019 337   @ Stetson W 76-71 58%    
  Feb 20, 2019 213   North Florida L 81-85 47%    
  Feb 23, 2019 228   NJIT L 69-72 50%    
  Feb 26, 2019 340   @ North Alabama W 72-66 61%    
  Mar 01, 2019 179   Florida Gulf Coast L 73-79 40%    
Projected Record 13.1 - 15.9 7.3 - 8.7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 3.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.3 2.1 0.7 0.1 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.9 2.5 0.7 0.0 10.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 3.7 6.1 3.0 0.4 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 5.7 6.7 2.9 0.3 17.7 5th
6th 0.4 3.1 7.6 6.0 2.1 0.2 19.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.7 6.0 3.9 0.9 0.0 15.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 2.7 3.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.2 1.1 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 4.6 9th
Total 0.2 1.1 2.6 4.5 7.7 10.8 13.6 13.6 13.1 11.9 8.6 5.6 3.9 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-2 87.4% 0.6    0.5 0.1
13-3 63.8% 1.2    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-4 25.8% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-5 7.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 81.4% 81.4% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.3% 45.2% 45.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
14-2 0.7% 26.6% 26.6% 0.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.1%
13-3 1.8% 18.0% 18.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.5
12-4 3.9% 9.5% 9.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.5
11-5 5.6% 9.7% 9.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 5.1
10-6 8.6% 4.4% 4.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 8.2
9-7 11.9% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4 11.5
8-8 13.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 12.9
7-9 13.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.5
6-10 13.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.6
5-11 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.8
4-12 7.7% 7.7
3-13 4.5% 4.5
2-14 2.6% 2.6
1-15 1.1% 1.1
0-16 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.9 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%