Preseason Rankings
Alabama
Southeastern
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.5#39
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.3#145
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#76
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#17
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.3% 2.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 5.9% 15.4% 5.0%
Top 4 Seed 15.4% 15.4% 5.0%
Top 6 Seed 26.1% 15.4% 5.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.9% 54.0% 26.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 51.4% 51.5% 24.7%
Average Seed 6.5 6.5 8.1
.500 or above 71.0% 71.1% 38.0%
.500 or above in Conference 56.8% 56.9% 32.6%
Conference Champion 5.1% 5.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 4.9% 4.9% 13.4%
First Four3.0% 3.0% 7.3%
First Round52.2% 52.4% 19.3%
Second Round32.8% 32.9% 11.0%
Sweet Sixteen14.4% 14.4% 7.7%
Elite Eight6.5% 6.6% 5.0%
Final Four3.0% 3.0% 2.5%
Championship Game1.2% 1.2% 2.5%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 2.4%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 99.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.8 - 5.21.8 - 5.2
Quad 1b2.4 - 2.84.1 - 7.9
Quad 25.1 - 3.09.2 - 10.9
Quad 35.8 - 1.615.0 - 12.6
Quad 43.2 - 0.218.2 - 12.8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 343   Southern W 81-57 99%    
  Nov 11, 2018 175   Appalachian St. W 79-68 91%    
  Nov 15, 2018 70   Northeastern W 72-69 60%    
  Nov 16, 2018 111   Ball St. W 77-70 73%    
  Nov 18, 2018 81   Wichita St. W 75-71 65%    
  Nov 26, 2018 151   Murray St. W 75-65 87%    
  Nov 29, 2018 55   @ Central Florida W 66-65 45%    
  Dec 04, 2018 85   Georgia St. W 73-68 75%    
  Dec 09, 2018 66   Arizona W 73-71 68%    
  Dec 18, 2018 155   Liberty W 71-61 81%    
  Dec 21, 2018 57   Penn St. W 71-69 65%    
  Dec 30, 2018 105   @ Stephen F. Austin W 76-70 62%    
  Jan 05, 2019 3   Kentucky L 70-78 33%    
  Jan 08, 2019 46   @ LSU W 74-73 42%    
  Jan 12, 2019 64   Texas A&M W 73-71 67%    
  Jan 16, 2019 51   @ Missouri W 69-68 43%    
  Jan 19, 2019 9   @ Tennessee L 66-72 23%    
  Jan 22, 2019 118   Mississippi W 78-71 80%    
  Jan 26, 2019 48   @ Baylor W 70-69 44%    
  Jan 29, 2019 21   Mississippi St. L 69-72 50%    
  Feb 02, 2019 13   @ Auburn L 75-79 27%    
  Feb 06, 2019 80   Georgia W 67-63 73%    
  Feb 09, 2019 83   @ Vanderbilt W 73-69 55%    
  Feb 12, 2019 21   @ Mississippi St. L 69-72 31%    
  Feb 16, 2019 16   Florida L 69-72 49%    
  Feb 19, 2019 64   @ Texas A&M W 73-71 47%    
  Feb 23, 2019 83   Vanderbilt W 73-69 73%    
  Feb 26, 2019 61   @ South Carolina W 71-69 46%    
  Mar 02, 2019 46   LSU W 74-73 63%    
  Mar 05, 2019 13   Auburn L 75-79 46%    
  Mar 09, 2019 94   @ Arkansas W 76-71 58%    
Projected Record 18.2 - 12.8 9.1 - 8.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.2 5.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 2.6 2.3 1.0 0.2 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 3.1 2.6 0.8 0.0 7.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.4 3.1 0.8 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.7 3.6 1.0 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.4 3.5 4.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.2 4.7 1.8 0.1 9.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 3.5 3.1 0.7 0.0 8.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.6 0.8 0.0 7.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.0 1.2 0.1 6.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 1.7 2.6 1.3 0.1 6.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.8 0.8 0.1 4.0 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.6 14th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 4.3 6.2 8.0 10.0 10.8 12.1 11.0 9.7 8.5 6.6 4.4 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 88.4% 1.1    0.9 0.2 0.0
15-3 59.8% 1.6    0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 28.7% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 8.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.1% 5.1 2.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 11.3% 88.8% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 38.3% 61.7% 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.3% 100.0% 25.5% 74.5% 1.7 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.6% 100.0% 12.4% 87.6% 2.3 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.4% 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 3.2 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 6.6% 99.7% 9.4% 90.3% 4.4 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 8.5% 98.0% 8.8% 89.2% 5.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.8%
11-7 9.7% 92.3% 5.3% 87.0% 6.9 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.7 91.9%
10-8 11.0% 79.2% 4.9% 74.3% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.3 78.1%
9-9 12.1% 62.1% 4.2% 57.9% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.6 60.4%
8-10 10.8% 32.1% 2.4% 29.7% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 30.4%
7-11 10.0% 10.2% 2.1% 8.1% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 8.3%
6-12 8.0% 3.9% 1.7% 2.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 2.2%
5-13 6.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 0.2%
4-14 4.3% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.3
3-15 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
2-16 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.2
1-17 0.4% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
Total 100% 53.9% 5.1% 48.8% 6.5 2.3 3.6 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.5 6.2 4.6 3.4 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 46.1 51.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 58.7 41.3