Preseason Rankings
Baylor
Big 12
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.7#48
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.6#268
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#61
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#37
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.5% 1.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.8% 11.8% 2.5%
Top 4 Seed 11.3% 11.8% 2.5%
Top 6 Seed 20.9% 11.8% 2.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.5% 45.6% 23.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 41.7% 42.8% 21.6%
Average Seed 6.6 6.6 7.8
.500 or above 65.1% 66.6% 36.1%
.500 or above in Conference 37.1% 38.0% 19.9%
Conference Champion 3.5% 3.6% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 18.2% 17.6% 28.4%
First Four2.5% 2.6% 2.0%
First Round43.3% 44.4% 23.2%
Second Round26.3% 27.2% 11.2%
Sweet Sixteen12.0% 12.4% 4.7%
Elite Eight5.2% 5.4% 2.2%
Final Four2.1% 2.2% 0.8%
Championship Game0.9% 0.9% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Southern (Home) - 94.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.6 - 5.91.6 - 5.9
Quad 1b2.2 - 3.33.8 - 9.1
Quad 24.2 - 3.18.0 - 12.2
Quad 33.2 - 1.011.1 - 13.2
Quad 46.2 - 0.417.4 - 13.6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 243   Texas Southern W 81-67 95%    
  Nov 10, 2018 343   Southern W 79-55 99%    
  Nov 12, 2018 297   Prairie View W 81-64 97%    
  Nov 16, 2018 263   Nicholls St. W 82-66 95%    
  Nov 23, 2018 118   Mississippi W 76-70 72%    
  Nov 24, 2018 129   George Mason W 75-68 74%    
  Nov 27, 2018 134   South Dakota W 75-68 83%    
  Dec 01, 2018 81   @ Wichita St. W 74-70 52%    
  Dec 15, 2018 66   @ Arizona W 72-70 46%    
  Dec 18, 2018 105   Stephen F. Austin W 74-68 78%    
  Dec 21, 2018 17   Oregon L 67-71 48%    
  Dec 29, 2018 292   New Orleans W 75-58 96%    
  Jan 05, 2019 28   @ TCU L 72-74 33%    
  Jan 08, 2019 30   Iowa St. L 71-73 54%    
  Jan 12, 2019 1   Kansas L 67-77 28%    
  Jan 14, 2019 74   @ Oklahoma St. W 72-69 48%    
  Jan 19, 2019 29   Texas Tech L 66-68 53%    
  Jan 21, 2019 11   @ West Virginia L 69-74 23%    
  Jan 26, 2019 39   Alabama L 69-70 56%    
  Jan 28, 2019 53   @ Oklahoma W 79-78 42%    
  Feb 02, 2019 28   TCU L 72-74 53%    
  Feb 06, 2019 26   @ Texas L 65-67 33%    
  Feb 09, 2019 14   Kansas St. L 65-70 45%    
  Feb 11, 2019 53   Oklahoma W 79-78 62%    
  Feb 16, 2019 29   @ Texas Tech L 66-68 34%    
  Feb 19, 2019 30   @ Iowa St. L 71-73 35%    
  Feb 23, 2019 11   West Virginia L 69-74 42%    
  Feb 27, 2019 26   Texas L 65-67 52%    
  Mar 02, 2019 14   @ Kansas St. L 65-70 26%    
  Mar 06, 2019 74   Oklahoma St. W 72-69 68%    
  Mar 09, 2019 1   @ Kansas L 67-77 14%    
Projected Record 17.4 - 13.6 7.5 - 10.5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 3.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.0 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.1 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.3 5.6 2.8 0.3 0.0 12.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 4.2 4.5 2.4 0.3 0.0 12.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.8 4.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 13.9 9th
10th 0.3 1.4 2.9 3.6 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.7 10th
Total 0.3 1.4 3.4 6.2 8.3 9.9 10.3 11.8 11.1 10.3 8.5 6.9 4.8 3.2 1.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 93.7% 0.5    0.4 0.1
15-3 80.2% 0.6    0.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 56.5% 1.1    0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 21.8% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 59.7% 40.3% 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 52.9% 47.1% 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.5% 100.0% 30.2% 69.8% 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.8% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 1.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.9% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 2.5 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 3.2% 100.0% 16.5% 83.5% 3.3 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 4.8% 100.0% 8.5% 91.5% 4.4 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 6.9% 97.3% 9.5% 87.8% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 97.0%
10-8 8.5% 92.9% 6.5% 86.4% 6.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 92.4%
9-9 10.3% 80.5% 6.3% 74.2% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 79.2%
8-10 11.1% 55.3% 3.5% 51.9% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 53.7%
7-11 11.8% 25.9% 3.3% 22.6% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 23.4%
6-12 10.3% 6.2% 2.0% 4.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6 4.4%
5-13 9.9% 1.8% 1.3% 0.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8 0.5%
4-14 8.3% 0.7% 0.7% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3
3-15 6.2% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 6.2
2-16 3.4% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4
1-17 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.4
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 44.5% 4.7% 39.7% 6.6 1.5 2.3 3.9 3.6 4.3 5.3 5.7 5.6 5.0 3.5 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 55.5 41.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 98.8 1.2