Preseason Rankings
Kansas
Big 12
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+19.8#1
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.5#166
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+11.9#3
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#4
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 15.9% 19.5% 8.9%
#1 Seed 41.9% 49.6% 27.0%
Top 2 Seed 63.4% 87.7% 68.1%
Top 4 Seed 81.0% 87.7% 68.1%
Top 6 Seed 89.2% 87.7% 68.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.4% 98.2% 92.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.8% 97.3% 90.4%
Average Seed 2.6 2.2 3.3
.500 or above 97.2% 98.8% 94.1%
.500 or above in Conference 94.0% 95.8% 90.5%
Conference Champion 49.7% 55.4% 38.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 1.1%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.7%
First Round96.3% 98.2% 92.6%
Second Round87.2% 91.1% 79.8%
Sweet Sixteen64.7% 70.2% 54.1%
Elite Eight43.5% 49.2% 32.7%
Final Four27.3% 31.9% 18.4%
Championship Game16.7% 20.1% 10.1%
National Champion10.3% 12.7% 5.6%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Neutral) - 65.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5.2 - 4.35.2 - 4.3
Quad 1b4.7 - 1.59.9 - 5.8
Quad 26.9 - 1.016.8 - 6.8
Quad 35.0 - 0.221.8 - 7.0
Quad 42.1 - 0.023.9 - 7.1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 10   Michigan St. W 76-72 66%    
  Nov 12, 2018 124   Vermont W 79-62 97%    
  Nov 16, 2018 100   Louisiana W 85-69 95%    
  Nov 21, 2018 24   Marquette W 83-76 74%    
  Nov 23, 2018 9   Tennessee W 74-70 62%    
  Dec 01, 2018 108   Stanford W 84-68 95%    
  Dec 04, 2018 97   Wofford W 82-67 94%    
  Dec 08, 2018 93   New Mexico St. W 80-65 94%    
  Dec 15, 2018 8   Villanova W 78-75 70%    
  Dec 18, 2018 134   South Dakota W 84-67 96%    
  Dec 22, 2018 43   @ Arizona St. W 86-76 72%    
  Dec 29, 2018 135   Eastern Michigan W 78-60 96%    
  Jan 02, 2019 53   Oklahoma W 89-78 88%    
  Jan 05, 2019 30   @ Iowa St. W 81-73 67%    
  Jan 09, 2019 28   TCU W 81-73 82%    
  Jan 12, 2019 48   @ Baylor W 77-67 72%    
  Jan 14, 2019 26   Texas W 74-66 81%    
  Jan 19, 2019 11   @ West Virginia W 78-73 55%    
  Jan 21, 2019 30   Iowa St. W 81-73 82%    
  Jan 26, 2019 3   @ Kentucky W 77-76 45%    
  Jan 29, 2019 26   @ Texas W 74-66 64%    
  Feb 02, 2019 29   Texas Tech W 76-68 82%    
  Feb 05, 2019 14   @ Kansas St. W 74-69 57%    
  Feb 09, 2019 74   Oklahoma St. W 81-68 91%    
  Feb 11, 2019 28   @ TCU W 81-73 65%    
  Feb 16, 2019 11   West Virginia W 78-73 73%    
  Feb 23, 2019 29   @ Texas Tech W 76-68 66%    
  Feb 25, 2019 14   Kansas St. W 74-69 75%    
  Mar 02, 2019 74   @ Oklahoma St. W 81-68 79%    
  Mar 05, 2019 53   @ Oklahoma W 89-78 73%    
  Mar 09, 2019 48   Baylor W 77-67 86%    
Projected Record 23.9 - 7.1 13.4 - 4.6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 3.9 8.3 11.6 11.9 8.6 4.4 49.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 4.7 6.8 5.5 2.1 0.4 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.0 3.8 4.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 2.9 2.3 0.7 0.1 7.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.5 4.1 5.9 7.9 10.3 12.6 14.1 13.7 12.4 8.6 4.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.4    4.4
17-1 100.0% 8.6    8.4 0.2
16-2 96.4% 11.9    10.8 1.1
15-3 84.3% 11.6    8.8 2.6 0.1
14-4 58.9% 8.3    4.9 3.0 0.4 0.0
13-5 30.8% 3.9    1.4 1.8 0.6 0.0 0.0
12-6 8.8% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 49.7% 49.7 38.8 9.2 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.4% 100.0% 60.8% 39.2% 1.1 4.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-1 8.6% 100.0% 53.8% 46.2% 1.1 7.6 1.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 12.4% 100.0% 42.9% 57.1% 1.2 10.2 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 13.7% 100.0% 37.7% 62.3% 1.4 8.9 4.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 14.1% 100.0% 30.9% 69.1% 1.8 6.4 5.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.6% 100.0% 24.6% 75.4% 2.4 3.1 4.7 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 10.3% 100.0% 22.5% 77.5% 3.1 1.3 2.8 2.6 2.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 7.9% 99.6% 19.5% 80.2% 4.2 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
10-8 5.9% 97.3% 15.8% 81.4% 5.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 96.8%
9-9 4.1% 91.0% 12.3% 78.7% 6.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 89.7%
8-10 2.5% 75.2% 8.2% 67.1% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 73.0%
7-11 1.7% 44.8% 6.3% 38.5% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 41.1%
6-12 1.0% 25.6% 4.4% 21.2% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 22.2%
5-13 0.4% 11.2% 10.8% 0.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4%
4-14 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 96.4% 30.9% 65.5% 2.6 41.9 21.5 10.3 7.3 4.7 3.6 3.1 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 94.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 1.0 95.7 4.3