Preseason Rankings
Texas
Big 12
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.2#26
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.3#318
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#49
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#14
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
#1 Seed 4.4% 4.5% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 10.3% 25.3% 5.7%
Top 4 Seed 25.0% 25.3% 5.7%
Top 6 Seed 38.7% 25.3% 5.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 63.2% 63.7% 29.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 59.9% 60.5% 28.5%
Average Seed 5.6 5.6 7.1
.500 or above 76.8% 77.3% 41.2%
.500 or above in Conference 55.6% 56.0% 32.1%
Conference Champion 8.2% 8.3% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 8.5% 8.3% 22.7%
First Four2.3% 2.3% 2.0%
First Round62.2% 62.7% 27.7%
Second Round42.0% 42.5% 15.9%
Sweet Sixteen22.1% 22.3% 7.4%
Elite Eight10.8% 10.9% 3.6%
Final Four5.3% 5.4% 0.9%
Championship Game2.3% 2.4% 0.8%
National Champion1.0% 1.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Home) - 98.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2.5 - 6.22.5 - 6.2
Quad 1b2.8 - 2.75.3 - 9.0
Quad 25.1 - 2.410.4 - 11.3
Quad 34.4 - 0.714.8 - 12.0
Quad 44.1 - 0.118.9 - 12.1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 298   Eastern Illinois W 74-54 98%    
  Nov 09, 2018 94   Arkansas W 74-67 74%    
  Nov 12, 2018 210   Louisiana Monroe W 73-58 95%    
  Nov 16, 2018 265   The Citadel W 89-71 97%    
  Nov 22, 2018 6   North Carolina L 71-77 31%    
  Nov 23, 2018 10   Michigan St. L 67-70 39%    
  Nov 30, 2018 149   Radford W 69-58 90%    
  Dec 05, 2018 127   Virginia Commonwealth W 75-65 86%    
  Dec 09, 2018 27   Purdue W 69-68 61%    
  Dec 15, 2018 114   Grand Canyon W 71-62 84%    
  Dec 21, 2018 47   Providence W 68-66 68%    
  Dec 28, 2018 256   Texas Arlington W 80-62 96%    
  Jan 02, 2019 14   @ Kansas St. L 64-66 34%    
  Jan 05, 2019 11   West Virginia L 68-71 51%    
  Jan 08, 2019 74   @ Oklahoma St. W 71-66 58%    
  Jan 12, 2019 29   Texas Tech W 66-65 62%    
  Jan 14, 2019 1   @ Kansas L 66-74 19%    
  Jan 19, 2019 53   Oklahoma W 78-75 70%    
  Jan 23, 2019 28   @ TCU W 72-71 41%    
  Jan 26, 2019 80   @ Georgia W 66-60 61%    
  Jan 29, 2019 1   Kansas L 66-74 36%    
  Feb 02, 2019 30   @ Iowa St. W 71-70 42%    
  Feb 06, 2019 48   Baylor W 67-65 67%    
  Feb 09, 2019 11   @ West Virginia L 68-71 31%    
  Feb 12, 2019 14   Kansas St. L 64-66 52%    
  Feb 16, 2019 74   Oklahoma St. W 71-66 76%    
  Feb 23, 2019 53   @ Oklahoma W 78-75 50%    
  Feb 27, 2019 48   @ Baylor W 67-65 48%    
  Mar 02, 2019 30   Iowa St. W 71-70 62%    
  Mar 04, 2019 29   @ Texas Tech W 66-65 42%    
  Mar 09, 2019 28   TCU W 72-71 61%    
Projected Record 18.9 - 12.1 9.0 - 9.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.2 2.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 8.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.6 3.5 3.4 2.1 0.7 0.0 11.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.3 4.9 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.8 3.2 0.9 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.9 4.8 3.0 0.5 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.6 2.4 0.2 0.0 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 3.7 2.2 0.3 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 2.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.2 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.4 6.2 8.1 10.1 11.0 10.5 10.7 10.2 8.7 5.9 4.5 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
16-2 97.7% 1.5    1.2 0.3
15-3 76.2% 2.2    1.6 0.5 0.1
14-4 49.4% 2.2    1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 21.4% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.8% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.2% 8.2 5.3 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.6% 100.0% 45.1% 54.9% 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.5% 100.0% 28.3% 71.7% 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.8% 100.0% 19.9% 80.1% 1.8 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.5% 100.0% 20.4% 79.6% 2.4 1.0 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.9% 99.8% 14.6% 85.1% 3.2 0.4 1.3 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 8.7% 99.7% 12.0% 87.7% 4.2 0.2 1.0 1.9 2.4 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-7 10.2% 98.4% 8.7% 89.8% 5.3 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.1 2.4 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.3%
10-8 10.7% 93.3% 8.1% 85.2% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 92.7%
9-9 10.5% 83.9% 8.0% 75.9% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.0 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 82.5%
8-10 11.0% 57.3% 4.2% 53.1% 8.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.7 55.4%
7-11 10.1% 27.6% 4.1% 23.5% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.3 24.5%
6-12 8.1% 9.6% 3.4% 6.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.3 6.4%
5-13 6.2% 3.9% 2.7% 1.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.9 1.2%
4-14 4.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3
3-15 2.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.6
2-16 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
1-17 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 63.2% 8.1% 55.1% 5.6 4.4 5.9 7.2 7.5 7.0 6.7 6.8 6.4 4.6 3.2 2.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 36.8 59.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 55.0 45.0