Preseason Rankings
Arkansas
Southeastern
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.1#94
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.5#89
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#84
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#122
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 4.1% 0.7%
Top 4 Seed 1.6% 4.1% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 4.3% 4.1% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.7% 30.3% 12.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15.6% 28.7% 11.1%
Average Seed 8.4 7.9 8.7
.500 or above 42.5% 63.5% 35.2%
.500 or above in Conference 26.2% 37.1% 22.5%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.2% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 18.7% 11.4% 21.2%
First Four3.0% 4.7% 2.4%
First Round15.1% 27.7% 10.8%
Second Round7.3% 13.8% 5.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 4.7% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.7% 0.5%
Final Four0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas (Neutral) - 25.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.8 - 5.60.8 - 5.6
Quad 1b1.1 - 3.01.9 - 8.6
Quad 22.9 - 4.14.8 - 12.7
Quad 35.0 - 2.99.8 - 15.6
Quad 44.8 - 0.814.6 - 16.4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 26   Texas L 67-74 26%    
  Nov 12, 2018 131   UC Davis W 73-71 69%    
  Nov 18, 2018 25   Indiana L 71-78 34%    
  Nov 21, 2018 251   Montana St. W 83-73 88%    
  Nov 23, 2018 256   Texas Arlington W 83-72 89%    
  Dec 01, 2018 226   Florida International W 79-70 86%    
  Dec 05, 2018 180   @ Colorado St. W 79-73 60%    
  Dec 08, 2018 60   Western Kentucky L 76-80 47%    
  Dec 15, 2018 158   Texas San Antonio W 81-76 66%    
  Dec 19, 2018 113   Georgia Tech W 71-69 65%    
  Dec 22, 2018 203   Texas St. W 71-64 81%    
  Dec 28, 2018 188   Austin Peay W 79-73 79%    
  Jan 05, 2019 64   @ Texas A&M L 73-76 31%    
  Jan 09, 2019 16   Florida L 69-78 31%    
  Jan 12, 2019 46   LSU L 75-80 45%    
  Jan 15, 2019 9   @ Tennessee L 67-78 13%    
  Jan 19, 2019 118   @ Mississippi W 79-77 46%    
  Jan 23, 2019 51   Missouri L 69-73 44%    
  Jan 26, 2019 29   @ Texas Tech L 68-75 21%    
  Jan 29, 2019 80   Georgia L 68-69 57%    
  Feb 02, 2019 46   @ LSU L 75-80 25%    
  Feb 05, 2019 83   Vanderbilt L 73-74 57%    
  Feb 09, 2019 61   @ South Carolina L 71-75 29%    
  Feb 12, 2019 51   @ Missouri L 69-73 26%    
  Feb 16, 2019 21   Mississippi St. L 70-78 34%    
  Feb 20, 2019 13   @ Auburn L 76-86 15%    
  Feb 23, 2019 64   Texas A&M L 73-76 49%    
  Feb 26, 2019 3   @ Kentucky L 71-84 9%    
  Mar 02, 2019 118   Mississippi W 79-77 65%    
  Mar 06, 2019 83   @ Vanderbilt L 73-74 37%    
  Mar 09, 2019 39   Alabama L 71-76 42%    
Projected Record 14.6 - 16.4 6.5 - 11.5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.4 0.7 0.1 5.9 6th
7th 0.2 2.2 3.6 1.1 0.0 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 4.1 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 4.2 3.2 0.3 9.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 4.2 4.1 0.8 0.0 9.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.8 4.6 1.4 0.0 10.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.9 4.2 4.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 11.6 12th
13th 0.1 1.5 4.3 4.0 2.2 0.2 0.0 12.5 13th
14th 0.9 2.5 3.8 3.3 1.1 0.2 11.7 14th
Total 0.9 2.6 5.4 8.5 10.2 11.8 11.9 11.7 10.8 8.7 6.9 4.4 3.0 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 98.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 48.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 20.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 4.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.1% 100.0% 21.4% 78.6% 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.4% 100.0% 4.9% 95.1% 3.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.1% 99.9% 5.5% 94.4% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 1.6% 94.6% 7.3% 87.2% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 94.1%
12-6 3.0% 88.6% 4.6% 84.0% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 88.1%
11-7 4.4% 75.4% 2.6% 72.8% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 74.7%
10-8 6.9% 49.5% 2.6% 46.9% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.5 48.1%
9-9 8.7% 28.2% 1.6% 26.6% 10.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 6.2 27.0%
8-10 10.8% 10.0% 2.2% 7.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.7 7.9%
7-11 11.7% 2.9% 1.1% 1.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3 1.8%
6-12 11.9% 1.4% 0.9% 0.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.7 0.6%
5-13 11.8% 0.5% 0.5% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.8
4-14 10.2% 0.2% 0.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.1
3-15 8.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.5
2-16 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.4
1-17 2.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.6
0-18 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 16.7% 1.4% 15.3% 8.4 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 83.3 15.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0