Preseason Rankings
Louisiana
Sun Belt
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.3#100
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.6#68
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#93
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#129
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 1.8% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 1.8% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 1.8% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.7% 45.1% 24.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.0% 12.4% 1.3%
Average Seed 12.9 11.2 13.1
.500 or above 86.9% 98.2% 86.0%
.500 or above in Conference 88.6% 97.0% 87.9%
Conference Champion 29.9% 47.9% 28.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.0% 1.0%
First Four1.6% 4.1% 1.4%
First Round25.1% 42.9% 23.6%
Second Round6.1% 15.7% 5.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 5.4% 1.6%
Elite Eight0.5% 1.4% 0.5%
Final Four0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee (Away) - 7.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 1.80.1 - 1.8
Quad 1b0.2 - 0.60.3 - 2.5
Quad 21.1 - 1.81.4 - 4.2
Quad 36.0 - 3.57.4 - 7.8
Quad 411.8 - 2.019.2 - 9.8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 9   @ Tennessee L 67-79 7%    
  Nov 16, 2018 1   @ Kansas L 69-85 5%    
  Nov 19, 2018 180   Colorado St. W 79-74 68%    
  Nov 20, 2018 126   Toledo W 79-78 55%    
  Nov 21, 2018 195   Tulane W 80-74 71%    
  Nov 28, 2018 292   @ New Orleans W 77-66 78%    
  Dec 01, 2018 343   Southern W 81-63 97%    
  Dec 11, 2018 297   Prairie View W 85-73 91%    
  Dec 15, 2018 141   Louisiana Tech W 76-73 69%    
  Dec 18, 2018 304   @ McNeese St. W 83-71 80%    
  Dec 29, 2018 236   @ SE Louisiana W 77-68 69%    
  Jan 03, 2019 286   Arkansas St. W 83-72 89%    
  Jan 05, 2019 264   Arkansas Little Rock W 75-65 87%    
  Jan 10, 2019 85   @ Georgia St. L 73-75 35%    
  Jan 12, 2019 148   @ Georgia Southern W 78-75 51%    
  Jan 19, 2019 210   @ Louisiana Monroe W 75-68 64%    
  Jan 24, 2019 150   South Alabama W 78-75 71%    
  Jan 26, 2019 192   Troy W 79-73 78%    
  Jan 31, 2019 175   @ Appalachian St. W 80-75 56%    
  Feb 02, 2019 221   @ Coastal Carolina W 78-70 66%    
  Feb 06, 2019 148   Georgia Southern W 78-75 70%    
  Feb 08, 2019 85   Georgia St. L 73-75 54%    
  Feb 16, 2019 210   Louisiana Monroe W 75-68 80%    
  Feb 21, 2019 256   @ Texas Arlington W 83-73 71%    
  Feb 23, 2019 203   @ Texas St. W 72-65 62%    
  Feb 28, 2019 221   Coastal Carolina W 78-70 81%    
  Mar 03, 2019 175   Appalachian St. W 80-75 74%    
  Mar 07, 2019 264   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 75-65 71%    
  Mar 09, 2019 286   @ Arkansas St. W 83-72 74%    
Projected Record 19.2 - 9.8 12.3 - 5.7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.5 8.0 8.0 4.6 1.6 29.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.4 6.1 6.5 3.1 0.5 0.0 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.3 4.3 1.2 0.1 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.6 2.4 0.5 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 3.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.5 0.1 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.5 0.2 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 3.2 4.7 6.3 8.5 10.2 11.7 12.8 13.2 11.3 8.5 4.6 1.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 100.0% 4.6    4.4 0.2
16-2 93.7% 8.0    6.6 1.4 0.0
15-3 71.3% 8.0    5.4 2.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 41.6% 5.5    2.1 2.6 0.7 0.0
13-5 14.8% 1.9    0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.9% 29.9 20.6 7.4 1.7 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 89.0% 68.9% 20.1% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 64.5%
17-1 4.6% 72.6% 60.8% 11.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 30.2%
16-2 8.5% 56.0% 51.2% 4.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 3.7 9.7%
15-3 11.3% 39.5% 37.9% 1.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.8 2.7%
14-4 13.2% 31.3% 30.8% 0.5% 13.6 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.5 0.7 0.1 9.1 0.7%
13-5 12.8% 21.8% 21.7% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 10.0 0.1%
12-6 11.7% 17.9% 17.9% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 9.6
11-7 10.2% 12.9% 12.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 8.9
10-8 8.5% 7.5% 7.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 7.8
9-9 6.3% 6.8% 6.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 5.9
8-10 4.7% 3.5% 3.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.5
7-11 3.2% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.0
6-12 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-13 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 25.7% 24.1% 1.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 2.5 4.9 5.7 5.6 3.2 1.8 74.3 2.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.4 1.8 1.8 48.2 48.2