IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Troy
Sun Belt
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.5	#192
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.7	#159
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.6	#182

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.0	#200

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.2%	1.1%	0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	1.1%	0.1%
Average Seed	10.4	10.4	10.3

.500 or above	51.3%	74.9%	47.8%
.500 or above in Conference	54.2%	70.0%	51.9%
Conference Champion	6.2%	12.0%	5.3%
Last Place in Conference	7.0%	3.3%	7.6%

First Four	0.1%	0.9%	0.0%
First Round	0.2%	0.7%	0.1%
Second Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Away) - 13.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 1.0	0.0 - 1.0
Quad 1b	0.1 - 1.2	0.1 - 2.3
Quad 2	0.8 - 3.3	0.9 - 5.6
Quad 3	3.8 - 5.7	4.7 - 11.2
Quad 4	8.9 - 3.1	13.7 - 14.3

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 10, 2018	71	@ Saint Louis	L	63-72	13%
Nov 12, 2018	167	@ Pittsburgh	L	68-69	34%
Nov 15, 2018	163	Southern Miss	L	70-72	55%
Nov 18, 2018	303	Central Arkansas	W	81-75	79%
Nov 24, 2018	340	North Alabama	W	76-64	91%
Nov 29, 2018	188	Austin Peay	L	74-75	60%
Dec 03, 2018	15	@ Florida St.	L	70-86	5%
Dec 16, 2018	60	@ Western Kentucky	L	70-80	12%
Dec 21, 2018	187	@ UAB	L	71-72	39%
Dec 29, 2018	332	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	76-66	87%
Jan 03, 2019	221	Coastal Carolina	W	72-70	66%
Jan 05, 2019	175	Appalachian St.	L	75-76	57%
Jan 10, 2019	264	@ Arkansas Little Rock	W	69-65	55%
Jan 12, 2019	286	@ Arkansas St.	W	77-72	58%
Jan 17, 2019	148	Georgia Southern	L	72-75	52%
Jan 19, 2019	85	Georgia St.	L	68-75	34%
Jan 24, 2019	210	@ Louisiana Monroe	W	70-69	45%
Jan 26, 2019	100	@ Louisiana	L	73-79	22%
Feb 02, 2019	150	@ South Alabama	L	72-74	32%
Feb 07, 2019	264	Arkansas Little Rock	W	69-65	72%
Feb 09, 2019	286	Arkansas St.	W	77-72	75%
Feb 13, 2019	85	@ Georgia St.	L	68-75	19%
Feb 15, 2019	148	@ Georgia Southern	L	72-75	32%
Feb 23, 2019	150	South Alabama	L	72-74	51%
Feb 28, 2019	203	Texas St.	W	66-65	62%
Mar 02, 2019	256	Texas Arlington	W	77-73	71%
Mar 07, 2019	175	@ Appalachian St.	L	75-76	38%
Mar 09, 2019	221	@ Coastal Carolina	W	72-70	47%
Projected Record						13.7 - 14.3	8.9 - 9.1

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.8	1.8	1.6	1.2	0.5	0.1		6.2	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	1.8	2.9	2.0	0.6	0.1	0.0			7.8	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.5	3.1	3.6	1.9	0.3	0.0					9.5	3rd
4th									0.0	0.5	3.1	4.4	1.8	0.2	0.0						10.1	4th
5th								0.0	0.4	3.1	4.6	2.2	0.2	0.0							10.5	5th
6th							0.0	0.4	2.3	5.1	2.2	0.3	0.0								10.4	6th
7th							0.2	2.2	5.0	2.4	0.3	0.0									10.1	7th
8th						0.1	1.5	5.0	2.7	0.3	0.0										9.6	8th
9th					0.2	1.5	3.7	2.9	0.5	0.0											8.8	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	1.1	2.7	2.7	0.6	0.0												7.2	10th
11th		0.0	0.3	1.1	2.2	1.9	0.5	0.0													6.0	11th
12th	0.1	0.5	0.9	1.3	1.0	0.2	0.0														3.9	12th

Total	0.1	0.5	1.2	2.5	4.4	6.5	8.7	11.0	11.0	11.4	10.8	10.3	7.6	5.7	4.2	2.2	1.4	0.5	0.1			Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	99.7%	0.5		0.5	0.0
16-2	90.9%	1.2		1.0	0.2	0.0
15-3	73.2%	1.6		1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0
14-4	43.2%	1.8		0.7	0.8	0.2	0.0
13-5	13.7%	0.8		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0						0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	6.2%	6.2		3.7	1.9	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		51.7%		51.7%	8.0					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.1		51.7%
17-1	0.5%		21.5%		21.5%	10.9								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0					0.4		21.5%
16-2	1.4%		5.6%		5.6%	11.3										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				1.3		5.6%
15-3	2.2%		0.2%		0.2%	11.1											0.0	0.0	0.0					2.2		0.2%
14-4	4.2%		0.0%		0.0%	12.0													0.0					4.2		0.0%
13-5	5.7%																							5.7
12-6	7.6%																							7.6
11-7	10.3%																							10.3
10-8	10.8%																							10.8
9-9	11.4%																							11.4
8-10	11.0%																							11.0
7-11	11.0%																							11.0
6-12	8.7%																							8.7
5-13	6.5%																							6.5
4-14	4.4%																							4.4
3-15	2.5%																							2.5
2-16	1.2%																							1.2
1-17	0.5%																							0.5
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		0.2%	0.0%	0.2%	10.4					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0				99.8		0.2%