Preseason Rankings
Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-14.0#343
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.7#187
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-9.6#349
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#314
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 7.8% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 7.5% 42.6% 7.4%
.500 or above in Conference 34.7% 67.3% 34.5%
Conference Champion 3.1% 17.9% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 18.6% 5.1% 18.7%
First Four1.4% 7.8% 1.3%
First Round0.8% 7.5% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 0.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 2.60.0 - 2.6
Quad 1b0.0 - 1.90.0 - 4.5
Quad 20.0 - 1.90.0 - 6.4
Quad 30.2 - 3.20.3 - 9.7
Quad 48.4 - 11.78.7 - 21.3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 39   @ Alabama L 57-81 1%    
  Nov 10, 2018 48   @ Baylor L 55-79 1%    
  Nov 13, 2018 54   @ Louisville L 60-83 1%    
  Nov 17, 2018 129   @ George Mason L 62-79 4%    
  Nov 23, 2018 211   Western Michigan L 64-75 17%    
  Nov 24, 2018 302   NC Central L 62-68 30%    
  Dec 01, 2018 100   @ Louisiana L 63-81 3%    
  Dec 07, 2018 79   @ South Dakota St. L 64-84 2%    
  Dec 09, 2018 30   @ Iowa St. L 59-85 1%    
  Dec 15, 2018 328   Northwestern St. L 66-69 40%    
  Dec 19, 2018 288   California Baptist L 66-73 37%    
  Dec 28, 2018 24   @ Marquette L 61-88 0.5%   
  Jan 05, 2019 297   Prairie View L 69-75 38%    
  Jan 07, 2019 243   Texas Southern L 69-78 31%    
  Jan 12, 2019 296   @ Grambling St. L 68-74 21%    
  Jan 14, 2019 335   @ Jackson St. L 61-63 34%    
  Jan 19, 2019 332   Arkansas Pine Bluff L 66-68 52%    
  Jan 21, 2019 344   Mississippi Valley W 71-70 61%    
  Jan 26, 2019 349   @ Alabama A&M W 67-65 46%    
  Jan 28, 2019 325   @ Alabama St. L 68-72 29%    
  Feb 02, 2019 346   @ Alcorn St. W 68-67 43%    
  Feb 09, 2019 296   Grambling St. L 68-74 39%    
  Feb 11, 2019 335   Jackson St. L 61-63 52%    
  Feb 16, 2019 332   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 66-68 32%    
  Feb 18, 2019 344   @ Mississippi Valley W 71-70 41%    
  Feb 23, 2019 349   Alabama A&M W 67-65 65%    
  Feb 25, 2019 325   Alabama St. L 68-72 48%    
  Mar 02, 2019 346   Alcorn St. W 68-67 62%    
  Mar 07, 2019 297   @ Prairie View L 69-75 22%    
  Mar 09, 2019 243   @ Texas Southern L 69-78 16%    
Projected Record 8.7 - 21.3 7.3 - 10.7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.6 2.2 0.6 0.1 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.8 2.1 0.6 0.1 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 12.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.6 5.5 2.5 0.3 0.0 12.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 4.3 5.5 2.4 0.3 0.0 14.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.6 4.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 13.8 9th
10th 0.5 1.8 3.2 3.6 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 12.2 10th
Total 0.5 1.8 3.7 6.2 8.4 9.8 11.5 12.0 11.4 9.8 8.0 5.8 4.8 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 99.6% 0.4    0.4 0.0
15-3 82.8% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0
14-4 51.2% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1
13-5 22.6% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.1% 3.1 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 95.1% 95.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 21.4% 21.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.4% 43.7% 43.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 0.2
15-3 0.9% 26.9% 26.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 0.7
14-4 1.7% 12.7% 12.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.5
13-5 3.0% 12.7% 12.7% 16.0 0.4 2.7
12-6 4.8% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.2 4.7
11-7 5.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 5.8
10-8 8.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 7.9
9-9 9.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.8
8-10 11.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.4
7-11 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.0
6-12 11.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.5
5-13 9.8% 9.8
4-14 8.4% 8.4
3-15 6.2% 6.2
2-16 3.7% 3.7
1-17 1.8% 1.8
0-18 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3% 0.2% 16.0 0.2