Preseason Rankings
Northeast
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
160 St. Francis (PA) 39.7%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 13 - 5 +0.3      +2.7 101 -2.4 259 69.1 178 0.0 1 0.0 1
215 Wagner 16.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 11 - 7 -3.2      -3.2 262 0.0 166 66.9 230 0.0 1 0.0 1
225 LIU Brooklyn 14.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 -3.9      -1.2 200 -2.7 268 76.7 31 0.0 1 0.0 1
233 Robert Morris 12.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 -4.2      -5.1 309 +0.9 136 71.6 106 0.0 1 0.0 1
252 Fairleigh Dickinson 10.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 8 -5.2      -1.1 199 -4.1 303 73.2 75 0.0 1 0.0 1
313 Central Connecticut St. 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -8.8      -4.2 287 -4.6 317 62.5 326 0.0 1 0.0 1
315 Bryant 2.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -9.2      -2.0 229 -7.1 346 72.7 86 0.0 1 0.0 1
318 St. Francis Brooklyn 2.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -9.4      -5.2 310 -4.2 308 71.4 111 0.0 1 0.0 1
324 Sacred Heart 1.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 20 7 - 11 -10.0      -5.9 322 -4.2 305 69.4 170 0.0 1 0.0 1
331 Mount St. Mary's 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 21 6 - 12 -11.5      -6.8 329 -4.7 319 62.8 322 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
St. Francis (PA) 2.5 43.2 21.3 13.1 8.4 5.5 3.7 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.2
Wagner 3.7 19.6 18.6 15.9 12.6 10.7 8.1 5.7 4.4 2.8 1.6
LIU Brooklyn 4.0 17.8 16.1 15.3 13.7 11.1 8.9 7.2 4.8 3.1 2.0
Robert Morris 4.1 15.8 16.0 15.5 12.7 11.7 9.6 7.3 5.3 3.8 2.2
Fairleigh Dickinson 4.6 11.8 13.6 14.4 13.2 12.7 10.5 8.8 6.9 4.8 3.5
Central Connecticut St. 6.3 3.8 5.6 7.9 9.8 10.9 12.1 12.6 13.6 12.7 10.9
Bryant 6.4 3.3 5.4 7.3 9.3 10.9 12.0 13.0 14.0 13.6 11.3
St. Francis Brooklyn 6.5 3.4 5.0 6.8 8.7 10.7 11.9 13.5 14.1 13.7 12.3
Sacred Heart 6.8 2.1 4.2 6.1 8.1 9.7 11.7 12.8 14.6 15.3 15.5
Mount St. Mary's 7.4 1.3 2.5 3.8 5.6 7.6 10.3 12.6 15.6 18.2 22.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
St. Francis (PA) 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.0 3.3 5.0 6.7 9.1 11.3 13.4 14.0 12.9 10.3 6.7 3.1
Wagner 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.3 3.7 5.6 7.7 9.5 10.9 11.3 12.4 10.7 9.7 7.0 4.0 2.1 0.5
LIU Brooklyn 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.8 4.4 6.3 8.6 10.2 11.4 12.0 11.0 10.4 8.2 5.4 3.9 2.0 0.5
Robert Morris 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.0 3.4 4.9 6.9 8.8 10.0 11.3 11.7 11.1 9.9 7.9 5.4 3.2 1.4 0.3
Fairleigh Dickinson 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.0 4.3 6.2 8.3 9.4 11.4 11.4 11.3 9.6 8.6 6.5 3.9 2.2 0.8 0.2
Central Connecticut St. 8 - 10 0.4 1.4 3.1 5.8 7.9 9.6 11.1 11.5 11.3 10.1 8.9 7.1 4.6 3.2 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Bryant 7 - 11 0.4 1.5 3.6 5.6 8.6 10.0 11.2 11.9 11.4 9.9 8.5 6.5 4.6 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0
St. Francis Brooklyn 7 - 11 0.5 1.6 3.6 6.6 8.4 10.2 11.7 11.5 11.8 9.8 7.6 6.0 4.3 3.2 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Sacred Heart 7 - 11 0.7 2.4 5.1 7.2 9.4 11.5 11.2 11.8 10.9 8.9 7.0 5.8 3.6 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 6 - 12 1.2 4.0 7.3 9.9 11.8 12.3 12.6 11.0 9.6 7.0 5.0 3.6 2.2 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
St. Francis (PA) 43.2% 32.3 8.7 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wagner 19.6% 12.6 5.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
LIU Brooklyn 17.8% 11.6 4.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Robert Morris 15.8% 10.2 4.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 11.8% 7.2 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Connecticut St. 3.8% 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bryant 3.3% 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Francis Brooklyn 3.4% 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Sacred Heart 2.1% 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 1.3% 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
St. Francis (PA) 39.7% 39.7% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.9 7.2 11.0 15.8 60.3 0.1%
Wagner 16.6% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.4 4.2 8.8 83.4 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.8 7.5 85.5 0.0%
Robert Morris 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.4 2.8 8.1 87.1 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 2.7 5.6 90.0 0.0%
Central Connecticut St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Bryant 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.6 97.8 0.0%
St. Francis Brooklyn 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 97.7 0.0%
Sacred Heart 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 98.2 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
St. Francis (PA) 39.7% 8.8% 35.7% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wagner 16.6% 5.5% 13.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 14.5% 4.9% 12.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 12.9% 5.4% 10.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 10.0% 3.6% 8.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Connecticut St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bryant 2.2% 1.2% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Francis Brooklyn 2.3% 1.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 1.8% 1.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 84.8% 0.8 15.2 84.8 0.1
2nd Round 5.4% 0.1 94.6 5.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3 0.0
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0