Preseason Rankings
Southwestern Athletic
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
243 Texas Southern 36.6%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 13 - 5 -4.6      -1.3 207 -3.3 286 76.2 37 0.0 1 0.0 1
296 Grambling St. 17.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 11 - 7 -7.5      -5.8 319 -1.8 238 77.8 22 0.0 1 0.0 1
297 Prairie View 15.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 11 - 7 -7.7      -3.3 265 -4.4 310 74.6 57 0.0 1 0.0 1
325 Alabama St. 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 10 - 8 -10.2      -4.8 300 -5.4 328 70.2 148 0.0 1 0.0 1
332 Arkansas Pine Bluff 4.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 20 9 - 9 -11.6      -7.0 330 -4.6 318 67.9 209 0.0 1 0.0 1
335 Jackson St. 3.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 9 - 9 -11.8      -8.6 344 -3.2 284 61.2 341 0.0 1 0.0 1
343 Southern 1.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 21 7 - 11 -14.0      -9.6 349 -4.5 314 68.7 187 0.0 1 0.0 1
344 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 22 7 - 11 -14.0      -7.1 334 -7.0 344 71.0 126 0.0 1 0.0 1
346 Alcorn St. 1.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 18 7 - 11 -14.8      -8.7 346 -6.1 336 68.6 191 0.0 1 0.0 1
349 Alabama A&M 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 24 6 - 12 -15.9      -9.2 348 -6.7 343 64.6 290 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Texas Southern 2.5 40.9 21.6 13.7 8.8 6.0 3.8 2.5 1.4 0.9 0.4
Grambling St. 3.6 22.7 19.3 15.7 12.0 9.5 7.9 5.2 3.8 2.6 1.4
Prairie View 3.6 21.2 19.3 15.3 12.7 9.8 7.7 5.5 4.3 2.7 1.5
Alabama St. 4.7 11.4 13.8 13.3 12.6 11.9 11.0 9.1 7.4 6.1 3.5
Arkansas Pine Bluff 5.3 7.4 9.9 10.8 12.6 12.3 11.8 11.1 9.8 8.1 6.0
Jackson St. 5.5 6.5 9.1 10.7 11.7 12.3 12.1 11.7 10.0 9.0 6.9
Southern 6.4 3.1 5.2 7.1 9.0 10.7 12.1 12.7 14.0 13.8 12.2
Mississippi Valley 6.4 3.2 4.9 7.2 9.4 10.9 12.3 12.7 13.5 13.9 12.1
Alcorn St. 6.8 2.5 4.6 6.2 7.2 9.6 11.5 12.6 14.1 16.3 15.5
Alabama A&M 7.2 1.6 3.0 4.7 6.8 8.4 10.2 12.6 14.2 17.4 21.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Texas Southern 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.4 3.4 5.5 7.5 9.2 11.7 12.7 12.9 12.5 9.9 7.0 2.9
Grambling St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.0 3.5 4.9 7.0 9.0 10.3 11.3 11.7 11.1 9.9 7.9 5.3 2.8 0.7
Prairie View 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.6 5.5 6.8 9.2 10.4 11.6 11.4 12.0 9.7 7.1 4.8 2.5 0.6
Alabama St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 3.5 4.9 6.7 8.5 10.6 10.5 10.9 10.8 9.4 8.0 5.8 4.1 2.1 0.9 0.3
Arkansas Pine Bluff 9 - 9 0.0 0.8 1.7 2.9 4.6 7.2 8.5 10.2 11.3 10.9 10.6 9.0 8.0 6.2 4.2 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1
Jackson St. 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.5 5.3 7.1 9.2 10.3 11.0 11.6 10.0 9.3 7.0 5.5 3.6 2.2 0.9 0.6 0.1
Southern 7 - 11 0.5 1.8 3.7 6.2 8.4 9.8 11.5 12.0 11.4 9.8 8.0 5.8 4.8 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Mississippi Valley 7 - 11 0.6 1.8 3.6 6.0 8.4 10.3 11.4 11.9 10.6 10.5 8.4 6.2 4.5 2.9 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Alcorn St. 7 - 11 0.7 2.5 4.9 7.3 10.1 11.2 11.6 11.4 10.6 9.0 6.9 5.2 3.7 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Alabama A&M 6 - 12 1.1 3.6 6.7 9.4 11.0 12.4 11.4 11.0 9.7 7.9 6.3 4.1 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Texas Southern 40.9% 31.4 7.6 1.6 0.2 0.0
Grambling St. 22.7% 15.6 5.6 1.3 0.2 0.0
Prairie View 21.2% 14.6 5.1 1.3 0.1 0.0
Alabama St. 11.4% 7.1 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 7.4% 4.3 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
Jackson St. 6.5% 3.8 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
Southern 3.1% 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Mississippi Valley 3.2% 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Alcorn St. 2.5% 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Alabama A&M 1.6% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Texas Southern 36.6% 36.6% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 4.6 30.4 63.4 0.0%
Grambling St. 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 15.5 82.6 0.0%
Prairie View 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 12.9 84.9 0.0%
Alabama St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 3.9 95.8 0.0%
Jackson St. 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 3.5 96.3 0.0%
Southern 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 1.5 98.5 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Alcorn St. 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 99.0 0.0%
Alabama A&M 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Texas Southern 36.6% 25.2% 23.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 17.4% 13.4% 10.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 15.1% 10.9% 9.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 4.2% 3.6% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 3.7% 3.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern 1.5% 1.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 79.5% 0.8 20.5 79.5
1st Round 48.0% 0.5 52.0 48.0
2nd Round 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0