Preseason Rankings
Murray St.
Ohio Valley
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#151
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.3#222
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#168
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#139
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.5% 25.3% 14.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 1.4% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.5 13.2 14.1
.500 or above 80.9% 88.9% 70.5%
.500 or above in Conference 89.2% 92.8% 84.4%
Conference Champion 24.9% 30.5% 17.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.4% 1.3%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 1.0%
First Round20.0% 24.8% 13.7%
Second Round2.8% 3.7% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.0% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wright St. (Home) - 56.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 1.10.1 - 1.1
Quad 1b0.1 - 0.80.2 - 1.9
Quad 20.5 - 1.50.7 - 3.4
Quad 32.9 - 3.13.6 - 6.5
Quad 413.4 - 3.517.0 - 10.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 138   Wright St. L 68-69 57%    
  Nov 24, 2018 190   Missouri St. W 69-67 69%    
  Nov 26, 2018 39   @ Alabama L 65-75 13%    
  Dec 01, 2018 297   Prairie View W 78-69 84%    
  Dec 08, 2018 157   @ Middle Tennessee W 68-67 41%    
  Dec 12, 2018 104   @ Southern Illinois L 67-70 29%    
  Dec 15, 2018 335   Jackson St. W 70-57 91%    
  Dec 18, 2018 196   Evansville W 66-63 70%    
  Dec 22, 2018 13   @ Auburn L 69-83 8%    
  Jan 03, 2019 224   Morehead St. W 73-68 74%    
  Jan 05, 2019 273   Eastern Kentucky W 75-68 80%    
  Jan 10, 2019 285   @ Tennessee Martin W 70-63 66%    
  Jan 12, 2019 308   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 78-69 71%    
  Jan 17, 2019 298   @ Eastern Illinois W 71-62 68%    
  Jan 19, 2019 320   @ SIU Edwardsville W 77-66 74%    
  Jan 24, 2019 109   Belmont L 70-73 51%    
  Jan 26, 2019 259   Tennessee St. W 68-61 79%    
  Jan 31, 2019 146   @ Jacksonville St. L 67-68 39%    
  Feb 02, 2019 287   @ Tennessee Tech W 74-66 65%    
  Feb 07, 2019 298   Eastern Illinois W 71-62 83%    
  Feb 09, 2019 320   SIU Edwardsville W 77-66 87%    
  Feb 14, 2019 188   @ Austin Peay W 73-71 47%    
  Feb 16, 2019 273   @ Eastern Kentucky W 75-68 64%    
  Feb 21, 2019 285   Tennessee Martin W 70-63 80%    
  Feb 23, 2019 308   Southeast Missouri St. W 78-69 85%    
  Feb 28, 2019 224   @ Morehead St. W 73-68 56%    
  Mar 02, 2019 188   Austin Peay W 73-71 67%    
Projected Record 17.0 - 10.0 12.4 - 5.6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.6 6.6 6.8 4.8 1.6 24.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.6 6.0 6.7 4.5 1.2 0.2 21.7 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.1 5.7 5.1 2.0 0.2 16.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.8 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 3.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 2.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.2 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.3 1.7 2.6 4.5 6.3 8.0 10.9 12.4 13.3 12.4 11.3 7.9 4.9 1.6 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 96.5% 4.8    4.3 0.5
16-2 85.1% 6.8    5.1 1.6 0.1
15-3 58.4% 6.6    3.9 2.3 0.4 0.0
14-4 28.8% 3.6    1.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.8% 1.3    0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.9% 24.9 16.4 6.7 1.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 80.8% 71.7% 9.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.3 32.2%
17-1 4.9% 55.9% 49.7% 6.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 2.2 12.4%
16-2 7.9% 47.4% 45.6% 1.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.2 3.4%
15-3 11.3% 32.9% 32.5% 0.4% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.0 7.6 0.5%
14-4 12.4% 24.2% 24.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.1 9.4
13-5 13.3% 19.2% 19.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.4 10.8
12-6 12.4% 13.3% 13.3% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.4 10.8
11-7 10.9% 9.7% 9.7% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 9.8
10-8 8.0% 4.3% 4.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.6
9-9 6.3% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.2
8-10 4.5% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 4.4
7-11 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.6
6-12 1.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-13 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.4% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 20.5% 19.9% 0.6% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.0 2.5 4.6 5.1 4.4 1.9 79.5 0.8%