Preseason Rankings
Virginia Tech
Atlantic Coast
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.4#20
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.8#129
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.1#11
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#52
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 5.2% 5.4% 2.1%
Top 2 Seed 11.3% 26.4% 9.2%
Top 4 Seed 25.8% 26.4% 9.2%
Top 6 Seed 40.6% 26.4% 9.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 68.9% 69.7% 43.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 66.7% 67.5% 41.9%
Average Seed 5.8 5.8 6.9
.500 or above 92.6% 93.1% 75.8%
.500 or above in Conference 71.4% 72.0% 52.2%
Conference Champion 7.3% 7.4% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 1.1% 3.2%
First Four3.6% 3.7% 2.8%
First Round67.2% 68.1% 42.7%
Second Round47.5% 48.2% 27.1%
Sweet Sixteen25.1% 25.6% 10.0%
Elite Eight12.4% 12.7% 3.6%
Final Four5.9% 6.1% 2.9%
Championship Game2.8% 2.8% 1.3%
National Champion1.2% 1.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Home) - 96.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2.2 - 5.02.2 - 5.0
Quad 1b2.1 - 1.94.3 - 6.9
Quad 23.9 - 1.88.2 - 8.7
Quad 34.6 - 0.812.8 - 9.6
Quad 47.5 - 0.220.3 - 9.7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 218   Gardner-Webb W 83-66 97%    
  Nov 15, 2018 111   Ball St. W 82-72 82%    
  Nov 16, 2018 70   Northeastern W 78-72 70%    
  Nov 18, 2018 27   Purdue W 75-74 53%    
  Nov 24, 2018 160   St. Francis (PA) W 84-71 92%    
  Nov 27, 2018 57   @ Penn St. W 75-71 56%    
  Dec 01, 2018 313   Central Connecticut St. W 83-61 99%    
  Dec 05, 2018 310   VMI W 85-63 98%    
  Dec 09, 2018 348   South Carolina St. W 92-63 99.7%   
  Dec 15, 2018 42   Washington W 78-75 61%    
  Dec 19, 2018 347   N.C. A&T W 90-62 99.5%   
  Dec 28, 2018 341   Maryland Eastern Shore W 85-58 99.6%   
  Jan 01, 2019 49   Notre Dame W 75-71 71%    
  Jan 05, 2019 78   Boston College W 81-74 80%    
  Jan 09, 2019 113   @ Georgia Tech W 75-65 72%    
  Jan 15, 2019 2   @ Virginia L 61-66 24%    
  Jan 19, 2019 115   Wake Forest W 82-72 86%    
  Jan 21, 2019 6   @ North Carolina L 79-84 27%    
  Jan 26, 2019 12   Syracuse L 68-70 54%    
  Jan 30, 2019 23   @ Miami (FL) W 75-74 42%    
  Feb 02, 2019 38   @ North Carolina St. W 83-80 49%    
  Feb 04, 2019 54   Louisville W 79-75 73%    
  Feb 09, 2019 18   @ Clemson L 72-73 41%    
  Feb 13, 2019 113   Georgia Tech W 75-65 85%    
  Feb 16, 2019 167   @ Pittsburgh W 78-64 81%    
  Feb 18, 2019 2   Virginia L 61-66 42%    
  Feb 23, 2019 49   @ Notre Dame W 75-71 52%    
  Feb 26, 2019 4   Duke L 78-83 44%    
  Mar 05, 2019 15   @ Florida St. L 80-81 38%    
  Mar 08, 2019 23   Miami (FL) W 75-74 61%    
Projected Record 20.3 - 9.7 10.2 - 7.8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.3 2.1 1.0 0.2 7.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.2 3.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 8.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.1 2.0 0.2 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.7 2.7 0.3 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.6 3.6 0.5 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.7 4.4 1.0 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.3 1.6 0.1 8.8 8th
9th 0.2 1.7 4.0 1.9 0.1 8.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 3.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 6.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 2.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 5.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.9 3.3 5.2 7.1 9.9 11.9 12.7 12.0 11.8 8.5 6.4 4.5 2.4 1.0 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.7% 1.0    0.9 0.1
16-2 85.6% 2.1    1.4 0.6 0.0
15-3 51.4% 2.3    1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
14-4 21.2% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.2% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.3% 7.3 3.9 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 45.2% 54.8% 1.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
17-1 1.0% 100.0% 29.5% 70.5% 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.4% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.5% 100.0% 15.2% 84.8% 2.0 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.4% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 2.7 1.1 1.9 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.5% 99.6% 9.4% 90.2% 3.9 0.2 1.1 2.0 2.6 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-6 11.8% 98.6% 6.6% 92.0% 5.2 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.5 2.7 2.3 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.5%
11-7 12.0% 94.0% 6.2% 87.8% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 2.0 2.5 2.3 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.7 93.6%
10-8 12.7% 85.8% 5.8% 80.0% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.8 85.0%
9-9 11.9% 66.0% 3.4% 62.6% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 64.8%
8-10 9.9% 33.6% 2.7% 30.9% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 31.7%
7-11 7.1% 10.4% 2.3% 8.0% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 8.2%
6-12 5.2% 3.0% 1.7% 1.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 1.3%
5-13 3.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.4%
4-14 1.9% 0.7% 0.7% 14.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 0.8% 1.8% 1.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 68.9% 6.6% 62.2% 5.8 5.2 6.0 6.7 7.8 7.2 7.5 7.2 6.3 5.3 4.7 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 31.1 66.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 77.8 22.2