Preseason Rankings
VMI
Southern
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.7#310
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.9#156
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.7#318
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#279
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 1.5% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.2 15.2
.500 or above 15.5% 35.7% 12.2%
.500 or above in Conference 19.6% 34.3% 17.2%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.3% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 22.8% 12.6% 24.5%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.4% 1.4% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Away) - 14.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 2.50.0 - 2.5
Quad 1b0.1 - 1.70.1 - 4.2
Quad 20.4 - 3.20.5 - 7.4
Quad 31.5 - 4.42.0 - 11.8
Quad 47.6 - 5.69.5 - 17.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 167   @ Pittsburgh L 62-71 14%    
  Nov 14, 2018 334   South Carolina Upstate W 78-75 71%    
  Nov 18, 2018 3   @ Kentucky L 60-87 0.3%   
  Nov 23, 2018 337   @ Stetson W 74-70 52%    
  Nov 27, 2018 242   American L 67-71 46%    
  Dec 01, 2018 333   @ Longwood W 72-69 49%    
  Dec 05, 2018 20   @ Virginia Tech L 63-85 2%    
  Dec 09, 2018 314   @ Chattanooga W 67-66 42%    
  Dec 12, 2018 319   @ Presbyterian W 68-67 42%    
  Dec 21, 2018 340   North Alabama W 71-66 74%    
  Dec 29, 2018 322   @ Samford W 76-75 44%    
  Jan 05, 2019 86   UNC Greensboro L 59-73 17%    
  Jan 10, 2019 123   Furman L 66-78 23%    
  Jan 12, 2019 97   Wofford L 64-77 19%    
  Jan 17, 2019 153   @ East Tennessee St. L 63-72 15%    
  Jan 19, 2019 307   Western Carolina L 70-71 59%    
  Jan 24, 2019 272   @ Mercer L 66-69 31%    
  Jan 26, 2019 265   @ The Citadel L 83-86 32%    
  Jan 31, 2019 86   @ UNC Greensboro L 59-73 7%    
  Feb 07, 2019 314   Chattanooga W 67-66 62%    
  Feb 09, 2019 322   Samford W 76-75 64%    
  Feb 14, 2019 97   @ Wofford L 64-77 9%    
  Feb 16, 2019 123   @ Furman L 66-78 11%    
  Feb 21, 2019 153   East Tennessee St. L 63-72 30%    
  Feb 23, 2019 307   @ Western Carolina L 70-71 39%    
  Feb 28, 2019 272   Mercer L 66-69 51%    
  Mar 02, 2019 265   The Citadel L 83-86 51%    
Projected Record 9.5 - 17.5 6.1 - 11.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 3.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 3.5 3.8 1.8 0.4 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 5.0 5.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 14.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.0 5.8 4.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 15.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.7 7.0 4.3 0.8 0.1 16.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 5.0 6.0 3.4 0.5 0.0 16.5 9th
10th 0.8 2.9 5.5 4.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 15.1 10th
Total 0.8 2.9 7.0 9.7 11.6 13.7 12.5 11.6 10.5 7.5 4.6 3.3 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 84.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 74.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 37.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 11.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 33.3% 32.8% 0.6% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9%
15-3 0.2% 1.6% 1.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.7% 12.6% 12.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6
13-5 1.1% 5.7% 5.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
12-6 2.1% 5.3% 5.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.0
11-7 3.3% 2.6% 2.6% 18.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.2
10-8 4.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0 4.6
9-9 7.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.5
8-10 10.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.5
7-11 11.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.6
6-12 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.5
5-13 13.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.7
4-14 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.6
3-15 9.7% 9.7
2-16 7.0% 7.0
1-17 2.9% 2.9
0-18 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%