Preseason Rankings
Mercer
Southern
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#272
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.3#339
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#226
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#302
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 2.4% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.4 15.1
.500 or above 25.1% 46.8% 18.4%
.500 or above in Conference 37.4% 52.6% 32.7%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.7% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.3% 6.4% 11.5%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round1.0% 2.1% 0.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Away) - 23.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 1.90.0 - 1.9
Quad 1b0.2 - 2.30.2 - 4.2
Quad 20.7 - 3.90.9 - 8.1
Quad 32.2 - 4.83.0 - 12.9
Quad 47.7 - 4.410.8 - 17.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 187   @ UAB L 65-70 24%    
  Nov 13, 2018 85   @ Georgia St. L 62-74 9%    
  Nov 16, 2018 285   Tennessee Martin W 66-65 63%    
  Nov 20, 2018 341   Maryland Eastern Shore W 70-62 82%    
  Nov 24, 2018 38   @ North Carolina St. L 66-83 4%    
  Dec 01, 2018 265   @ The Citadel L 80-81 39%    
  Dec 05, 2018 266   @ Florida Atlantic L 67-68 40%    
  Dec 08, 2018 148   Georgia Southern L 66-73 36%    
  Dec 18, 2018 16   @ Florida L 58-78 3%    
  Dec 21, 2018 197   UNC Wilmington L 71-75 48%    
  Dec 29, 2018 77   Harvard L 59-72 14%    
  Jan 03, 2019 123   @ Furman L 65-74 15%    
  Jan 05, 2019 97   @ Wofford L 63-74 12%    
  Jan 10, 2019 307   Western Carolina W 69-67 67%    
  Jan 12, 2019 153   East Tennessee St. L 62-69 39%    
  Jan 17, 2019 314   @ Chattanooga W 66-63 50%    
  Jan 19, 2019 322   @ Samford W 75-71 54%    
  Jan 24, 2019 310   VMI W 69-66 69%    
  Jan 26, 2019 86   @ UNC Greensboro L 58-70 12%    
  Jan 31, 2019 97   Wofford L 63-74 26%    
  Feb 02, 2019 123   Furman L 65-74 31%    
  Feb 09, 2019 265   The Citadel L 80-81 60%    
  Feb 14, 2019 307   @ Western Carolina W 69-67 48%    
  Feb 16, 2019 153   @ East Tennessee St. L 62-69 21%    
  Feb 21, 2019 322   Samford W 75-71 71%    
  Feb 23, 2019 314   Chattanooga W 66-63 70%    
  Feb 28, 2019 310   @ VMI W 69-66 49%    
  Mar 02, 2019 86   UNC Greensboro L 58-70 23%    
Projected Record 10.8 - 17.2 7.6 - 10.4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.9 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.9 6.3 3.5 1.1 0.1 16.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 5.7 5.7 2.7 0.5 0.0 16.8 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 5.7 5.1 1.5 0.1 14.8 7th
8th 0.3 2.5 5.5 3.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 13.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.3 4.0 2.3 0.5 0.0 9.7 9th
10th 0.2 1.0 1.7 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.1 10th
Total 0.2 1.1 2.3 4.7 7.4 10.3 12.2 12.8 11.7 11.4 8.8 7.4 4.2 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 91.5% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 58.5% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 27.0% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 3.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 6.9% 6.9% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 20.7% 20.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.2% 32.9% 32.6% 0.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4%
15-3 0.8% 13.2% 13.1% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.1%
14-4 1.7% 8.7% 8.7% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
13-5 2.8% 4.7% 4.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
12-6 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4.1
11-7 7.4% 3.1% 3.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.1
10-8 8.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.7
9-9 11.4% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.3
8-10 11.7% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 11.6
7-11 12.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 12.7
6-12 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.2
5-13 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.3
4-14 7.4% 7.4
3-15 4.7% 4.7
2-16 2.3% 2.3
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%